Rethinking my entire DVC strategy...help!

[marmentrout85]

Has anyone else gone somewhat far down their DVC journey and then questioned their entire strategy? Apologies in advance for the rambling…

Background: I own CCV, BWV and GVF resale – adore CCV/BWV and use those points exclusively at those resorts whereas GFV are largely SAP+ pts.

I’m in the market for my last 250-300 points and want them to be direct. Ideally this purchase would happen this year as we’re planning a large family trip next summer, and I’d like to take advantage of the extra points/blue card benefits.

Last week, I started down the path to purchase 300 direct @ RIV (though I haven’t yet signed the contract - notary appt is tmrw) - I have a June UY so waiting until summer incentives isn't ideal. I'm completely torn over whether to follow through. Given how much I love Crescent Lake and EPCOT (esp. World Showcase), I feel like I’ve talked myself into thinking Riv is the right move for direct resort in a post 2042 world.

But this little voice keeps whispering ‘buy where you love’…and if I follow that advice, it’s not Riv. Riv is a beautiful resort – we visit every trip and really enjoy our time there - and maybe that's enough reason to buy? But it’s still nowhere near BWV or BCV in my book and I'm struggling with that.

Obviously, no one can predict the future but if I buy Riv and 5 years from now they decide to convert Yacht Club (a girl can dream), my buyer’s remorse would be off the charts. And while I have zero intention of selling, I am personally finding it hard to ignore the resale restrictions entirely.

I keep coming back to 2 scenarios:

Original scenario:

• Buy direct Riv now taking advantage of strong 300 pt incentives to lock in blue card benefits

Alternate Scenario:

• Buy 150 direct Poly (assuming this stays the minimum buy in) to lock in blue card benefits with no resale restrictions, and give us the extra points we need for next summer
• Invest the money saved by not buying Riv and buy at a CL property whenever it opens…5 years, 2043, and sell VGF since I will have already had a monorail resort in Poly.

Scenario 2 came to me at 2AM so maybe that in and of itself is a sign to hit pause…WWYD?? Welcome all the collective wisdom from you kind folks!

Yes I can totally relate. I'm a huge overthinker/overanalyzer and if I'm given enough time I'll inevitably begin second guessing myself, so everything you just said really speaks to me.

We were considering just buying RIV direct because direct prices never seem to go down, and if we want direct points at a place we really like, now is probably better than a year from now, etc.

The thing is we still aren't even too sure that buying direct would ever even make sense for our situation, and spending the money on a direct contract seems like a huge commitment (at least in my mind) in general, not to mention a direct contract at a place with restrictions. Basically I want to feel that "absolutely gotta have it" feeling by a resort in order to justify direct pricing. In your scenario of Yacht Club, that would also be my "gotta have it" moment. Riviera not nearly as much.

At the end of the day, we found a great 50pt resale at RIV (since we knew we wanted access) that was perfect for our situation.

All that being said, for our family's situation (where the extras aren't a huge draw for us and APs don't make sense for us, even the Sorcerer pass) I don't think we'd ever buy direct at a place we didn't absolutely love.

 

[FrancisK7]

We did buy in when BLT was built and it was our favorite….and owned at BWV,, BRV was well… but then VGF came along and finsllly RIV and we realized these can’t be beat,

I'd love to hear your view on why RIV or VGF can't be beat! Coming from an experience Disney goer those perspectives are richly useful.

 

[Tatebeck]

I think if they decide to do anything with restrictions, it will be remove them, or as they build more projects (and I think add to the trust model), the trust resorts will have better trading options amongst themselves ahead of those non trust resorts.

ETA: thought of a way it could work…maybe.. the restricted resorts DVC resort agreements get updated to allow resale points to work amongst themselves but not O14…however, as more resorts are added, it effectively becomes a system without them so why not just remove. That’s why I think they either stay or go.

Yeah I figure there is gonna be a way for them to do it if they really want to. Maybe like you said, updating the resort agreements to allow restricted resorts to work amongst themselves, or amongst themselves and anything that is in the trust. I think it would be difficult for them to get in trouble for giving buyers MORE than advertised. If someone advertises something as $1,000 but then you show up and they try to charge $1,500, they could get in trouble and you would be angry. If you showed up and they drop the price to $500, lucky you!

I just don't see them dropping the resale restrictions all together at this point. They are going to want to keep some carrot on a stick to dangle in front of direct buyers. Otherwise everyone will just buy cheap resale SAP+ points. If they do it I think they will split the resale restrictions and keep the original 14 restriction agreements and make the newer restricted resorts+trust into an agreement. Then all resale owners have options on where to stay, Direct buyers have some piece of mind that their value won't tank if they have to sell, and the direct points would still be superior since they could be used anywhere. Still a reason to buy direct, but not as scary. Either way it's a fun thought exercise at least lol.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Yeah I figure there is gonna be a way for them to do it if they really want to. Maybe like you said, updating the resort agreements to allow restricted resorts to work amongst themselves, or amongst themselves and anything that is in the trust. I think it would be difficult for them to get in trouble for giving buyers MORE than advertised. If someone advertises something as $1,000 but then you show up and they try to charge $1,500, they could get in trouble and you would be angry. If you showed up and they drop the price to $500, lucky you!

I just don't see them dropping the resale restrictions all together at this point. They are going to want to keep some carrot on a stick to dangle in front of direct buyers. Otherwise everyone will just buy cheap resale SAP+ points. If they do it I think they will split the resale restrictions and keep the original 14 restriction agreements and make the newer restricted resorts+trust into an agreement. Then all resale owners have options on where to stay, Direct buyers have some piece of mind that their value won't tank if they have to sell, and the direct points would still be superior since they could be used anywhere. Still a reason to buy direct, but not as scary. Either way it's a fun thought exercise at least lol.

I don’t think they’ll drop restrictions either. But I’m hoping they introduce a way to allow people to wash their resale points for $/pt like other timeshares have done. Makes them money for nothing but a few signed documents and doesn’t add any further complications or divisions of the product.

 

[Cfabar1]

I'd love to hear your view on why RIV or VGF can't be beat! Coming from an experience Disney goer those perspectives are richly useful.

Not that poster, but I echo the sentiment - especially with VGF, though it is possible I may change my tune after Poly. And while I have some issues with RIV, and am unlikely to purchase RIV points any time soon, to me both VGF and RIV offer tremendous dining options, a quiet and peaceful environment - if you're in the main building at VGF anyways. It is so tranquil and peaceful inside there, unlike the Resort Studios which may as well be in the middle of an airplane hanger - the soundproofing is terrible. Both hotels have rooms that are nicely adorned and I believe are larger square footage than the comparable resorts nearby. You can ride a monorail to MK or EPCOT from VGF and Skyline from Riviera to the MGM Studios or EPCOT center.

Then you add in the pricing with the long expiration dates, which for many is a factor in purchasing, and there is an additional appeal there.

I have some issues with the high points chart at RIV and not being able to walk to any of the parks, and I think VGF offers subpar transportation options by having to share buses with the Poly/monorail order, etc. but no resort at WDW is perfect! Yes, other hotels like BLT have the two bathrooms. Poly Tower could potentially be a game changer, though I personally prefer the ability to walk to a resort, which may still give the edge to VGF especially when considering the size of the VGF building vs. the new Poly tower... When I first started our WDW journey I assumed that staying Disney Deluxe would mean that all four parks were a stones throw away from your room, that just isn't possible at WDW!

 

[Sandisw]

I'd love to hear your view on why RIV or VGF can't be beat! Coming from an experience Disney goer those perspectives are richly useful.

Both of these resorts have a very relaxing feel to us and after time in thr parks, it’s a nice change.

We love the rooms and the amenities as well. I know others are not a fan at RIV at CBR, but we find it unique and it love looking out over thr lake with our morning coffee, or nighttime drink and feel like we are looking at the Bahamas to then turn around and have the French feel of RIV.

Getting to two parks via Skyliner makes us visit HS more often now because we can get there quickly, And, going back and forth to Epcot, which we do a lot is nice,

Granted, it’s not walking, but in the heat, and with other issues some of our group has Skyliner is better. Now, I will admit that we do budge in for an Uber or Lyft home if the Skyliner goes down for weather but fortunately, have only had it happen a few times.

We split stay so when at VGF we get to MK easily and then do AK when staying there…so, for us, best of both worlds

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah I figure there is gonna be a way for them to do it if they really want to. Maybe like you said, updating the resort agreements to allow restricted resorts to work amongst themselves, or amongst themselves and anything that is in the trust. I think it would be difficult for them to get in trouble for giving buyers MORE than advertised. If someone advertises something as $1,000 but then you show up and they try to charge $1,500, they could get in trouble and you would be angry. If you showed up and they drop the price to $500, lucky you!

I just don't see them dropping the resale restrictions all together at this point. They are going to want to keep some carrot on a stick to dangle in front of direct buyers. Otherwise everyone will just buy cheap resale SAP+ points. If they do it I think they will split the resale restrictions and keep the original 14 restriction agreements and make the newer restricted resorts+trust into an agreement. Then all resale owners have options on where to stay, Direct buyers have some piece of mind that their value won't tank if they have to sell, and the direct points would still be superior since they could be used anywhere. Still a reason to buy direct, but not as scary. Either way it's a fun thought exercise at least lol.

With you that restrictions won’t go anywhere because they can amend them at any time…and the documents allow them to choose many different options.

What I could see, down the line, if there are issues with owners of restricted struggling to use points inside 7 months because they waited to book is offer them to pay a per reservation fee to book using DVCs own points in exchange for their points.

This way, they get both.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

If you don't like RIV, don't buy RIV.
Direct poly2 will be out soon and that's going to be a great place to own direct points. Maybe sell out your VGF resale if you want to balance out your MK monorail points. Particularly if you are not using them at VGF.

I would add some BWV or BCV resale if you need more points now.

Marriott credit cards with free annual certificates that you can use for swan/dolphin could be considered a dvc-lite for studios only.

I'd go resale bwv/BCV vs RIV and invest that difference. 17 years until 2042 and there will be a new shiny replacmemt that you can buy into later. Crescent lake and epcot aren't going to move.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t think they’ll drop restrictions either. But I’m hoping they introduce a way to allow people to wash their resale points for $/pt like other timeshares have done. Makes them money for nothing but a few signed documents and doesn’t add any further complications or divisions of the product.

I know people hope this, but why bother….in order for it to be of Pinterest with a resale buyer, would it not have to be priced aggressively.

I can’t see a situation in which buying resale and then washing points is going to cost a buyer less than buying direct…..and I don’t see sn owner choosing to wash points if it’s going to cost more than direct.

 

[Chili327]

In your scenario of Yacht Club, that would also be my "gotta have it" moment. Riviera not nearly as much.

This, don't buy where you don't want to stay, or pay for.

At the end of the day, we found a great 50pt resale at RIV (since we knew we wanted access) that was perfect for our situation.

That is another option, add-on 50 direct here, then 50 there, etc. pretty soon you have 150 w/benefits.

 

[Cfabar1]

This, don't buy where you don't want to stay, or pay for.



That is another option, add-on 50 direct here, then 50 there, etc. pretty soon you have 150 w/benefits.

Prior to last summer's VGF fire sale, that was our plan, to keep adding 50 points every few months or year....

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I know people hope this, but why bother….in order for it to be of Pinterest with a resale buyer, would it not have to be priced aggressively.

I can’t see a situation in which buying resale and then washing points is going to cost a buyer less than buying direct…..and I don’t see sn owner choosing to wash points if it’s going to cost more than direct.

Why do other timeshares do it then? I guess even if they price it aggressively, if I pay $120/pt for a resale contract today and then in a few years when I’m more financially stable or saved some money again I can wash my points for another $75-$100/pt. Maybe not the most economical but certainly more palatable than $225/pt all in today. Direct pricing will continue to go up and they’ll continue to add resale restricted hotels to the DVC portfolio, making it even more appealing to upgrade. Then again, this assumes they care at all what happens to resale, which realistically I’m not sure they care all that much.

 

[Sandisw]

Why do other timeshares do it then? I guess even if they price it aggressively, if I pay $120/pt for a resale contract today and then in a few years when I’m more financially stable or saved some money again I can wash my points for another $75-$100/pt. Maybe not the most economical but certainly more palatable than $225/pt all in today. Direct pricing will continue to go up and they’ll continue to add resale restricted hotels to the DVC portfolio, making it even more appealing to upgrade. Then again, this assumes they care at all what happens to resale, which realistically I’m not sure they care all that much.

Maybe the other timeshares do it because of the vast size of them? I honed.ty don’t know enough of other systems.

But, it just doesn’t seem like a plan for DVD to do…but then again, they abandoned them for the PVB tower project so maybe they would,

As I said, I can see them doing some level of a per reservation fee..meaning selling someone with restricted points access to ore than the 24 limit of OTU points, but as you said, who knows.

If they did have a point washing system, I think it could sctuslly hurt the resale market than help it because buyers might not want to pay as much so they can wash later on.

 

[marmentrout85]

This, don't buy where you don't want to stay, or pay for.



That is another option, add-on 50 direct here, then 50 there, etc. pretty soon you have 150 w/benefits.

Very true! Then there's a whole new problem as the little guy on my shoulder says: "why only buy 50pts when you can get such a better bang for your buck starting at 150pts"!?

 

[Kailunkat]

I have some bad news about BCV points…j/k, sorta. I am biased as a BCV owner, but I would be surprised if anybody who loves SAB sells because of one lengthy refurbishment (especially if it enhances the pool area at all)— I plan to book later in the year, and if it’s running behind schedule I will consider banking or staying elsewhere. I assume BCV will (very slowly) decline towards zero, but it should still be worth at least $20 to those of us who love it as of 2040, so if you do a straight depreciation from $140 to $20 over 16 years, that would be less than $8/yr… but I think it’s low point chart and inflation might actually keep it above $100 for a decade.

I totally agree that for educated DVC buyers - it won't be at all an issue. But we all know there are people who have bought DVC on a whim and don't make the most of it. I think the people who are already on the fence about selling BCV will make the jump to sell this year (between the dues and the pool refurb taking up 6 months of years usage time). So I will not be shocked to see some good deals on BVC with points on them.

 

[Coronator]

Maybe the other timeshares do it because of the vast size of them? I honed.ty don’t know enough of other systems.

But, it just doesn’t seem like a plan for DVD to do…but then again, they abandoned them for the PVB tower project so maybe they would,

As I said, I can see them doing some level of a per reservation fee..meaning selling someone with restricted points access to ore than the 24 limit of OTU points, but as you said, who knows.

If they did have a point washing system, I think it could sctuslly hurt the resale market than help it because buyers might not want to pay as much so they can wash later on.

I think eventually points will have to get washed (after the property sells out). It may be through some sort of purchase through Disney, or it may just be done by ROFR’s from Disney. I suspect that ROFR’s will be more aggressive at RIV once it sells out compared to other properties, since their profit margins are more secure (there’s a guaranteed benefit/profit to buying back resale contracts and selling them as direct DVC points).

I suspect that direct RIV will be in very high demand once it sells out, and hence, ROFR’s will be as well.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think eventually points will have to get washed (after the property sells out). It may be through some sort of purchase through Disney, or it may just be done by ROFR’s from Disney. I suspect that ROFR’s will be more aggressive at RIV once it sells out compared to other properties, since their profit margins are more secure (there’s a guaranteed benefit/profit to buying back resale contracts and selling them as direct DVC points).

I suspect that direct RIV will be in very high demand once it sells out, and hence, ROFR’s will be as well.

Disney gets a lot of points back through foreclosure and default….. VGC is in high demand and No ROFR since 2019/2020ish…. so we never really know.

 

[Coronator]

Disney gets a lot of points back through foreclosure and default….. VGC is in high demand and No ROFR since 2019/2020ish…. so we never really know.

The difference though is the fact that VGC resale isn’t restricted. I think people underestimate what will happen once these restricted properties sell through. People will still want direct points so their points aren’t restricted, and will pay up for them. That will incentivize Disney to ROFR.

 

[Chili327]

I think the people who are already on the fence about selling BCV will make the jump to sell this year (between the dues and the pool refurb taking up 6 months of years usage time). So I will not be shocked to see some good deals on BVC with points on them.

*Adds BCV to my list.

The difference though is the fact that VGC resale isn’t restricted. I think people underestimate what will happen once these restricted properties sell through. People will still want direct points so their points aren’t restricted, and will pay up for them. That will incentivize Disney to ROFR.

That does make sense, i guess we'll see. Maybe that was in their plan all along?

 

[Sandisw]

The difference though is the fact that VGC resale isn’t restricted. I think people underestimate what will happen once these restricted properties sell through. People will still want direct points so their points aren’t restricted, and will pay up for them. That will incentivize Disney to ROFR.

That’s an interesting tske. It could then have the impact that resale value increases for these contracts.