If you want BCV the answer is absolutely resale.
To use your 125 point example...
- Direct point cost: $165/point
125 points = $20,625
- Resale point cost: $110/point
125 points = $13,750
Net difference is $6875. Closing will be pretty close in cost.
The major differences between direct and resale right now:
- Resale does not get access to the temporary lounge at Epcot.
- Resale cannot use points for cruises or non-DVC Disney hotels, both of which are poor exchange values.
- Direct gets a discount on APs and can buy the AP Gold even if not a Florida resident (see http://allears.net/pl/apass.htm for pricing); the standard passes are about $100 savings. The Gold AP saves about $125 over a Platinum, but has blackout dates.
- Direct get dining discounts (that can be replicated with a Disney Visa).
- Direct can go to DVC special events and the member cruise.
- Both Resale and Direct can trade into RCI, drink at Top of the World, and pool hop.
Arguably, the APs are the only economic benefit. Special events are never announced 11 months out and are a get-lucky thing. Dining discounts can be replicated. Cruises and Disney Hotels are poor exchange values and are actually a negative economic benefit. Disney themselves say do not buy the real estate interest for the perks, as the perks are transitory and, frankly, have become less good while more hyped over the years.
So, even if we figure the AP Gold discount for $125/year, that's 55 AP Gold discounts required to get that $6875 differential.
Now, if you're really really in love with the color blue and must have the full member card and privs, a hybrid approach is STILL better with BCV.
- 100 points resale at $115/point = $11,500
- 25 points direct with Disney at $165/point = $4125
- Total: $15,625, which is still a pre-close savings of $5,000. If you cannot close 2 contracts for under $5k you are doing closing wrong.