Resale review - Updated REVIEW posting

[dumbo71]

Interesting jump in the number of SSR resales. Could it be that the "newer owners" are dumping off SSR to buy AKV? Anyone care to speculate? The number jump isn't huge but OKW had by far the most resales and now SSR has the most.

Very interesting...

 

[greenban]

Hey D71 remember you asked for speculation.

Assumtions: We the average DISer are the equivalent of a post-doctoral fellow in buying DVC compaired to the average Minnie & Mickey off the street!

The most recently mass purchased resort is SSR, the most recent incentives have been for SSR. Therfore,

MOSTLY:
1) Buyer's remorce has set in. It happens to the current DVC offerring, not to those who waited 6months for a BCV purchase. After AKL is open for a year (or perhaps 2) it will lead the notazoo remorse parade.

TO A LESSER EXTENT:
2) Life events: Divorce, cheating spouse, job changes, layoffs, booming economy, other investment options, loss of a parent, etc. Most recently happening may affect a higher number of most recent sales (SSR). My thinking here, which nay be wrong. Someone who has owned for 10 years may have alrady lost a parent, or have enough resources to share during a divorce, no matter what resort someone bough 12 months ago.

UNSURE OF IMPACT IF ANY:
3) Disney's clamp down on renting. I still believe we have just seen the tip of the iceberg. I expect renting to be deleted, or significantly rephrased in the POS for AKL and CRV. You read that here first folks!

-Tony

 

[Parkhopper13]

My opinion on this is different. One year ago, SSR had sold far less contracts so the shear # of contracts outstanding was less. Today, there are many more outstanding contracts, thus, more people in a resale pool. The perctage of SSR resales may be the same, or even less of all outstanding contracts if you consider the amount of contracts Disney has sold in the past year.

I think the price increase represents my point. I know Disney pumps up prices with ROFR, but they woud be unable to maintain this artificially high price too long if the property wasn't selling.

As far as econnomics, I am not saying everyone is doing great, it's not the '90's...but honestly, unemployment is low, interest rates are low, the market is doing great, and inflation is relatively low. Housing is slowing, but it's coming off absurdly high levels. Many people gained a lot of equity the past 6-7 years. I know this is not a board to debate the economy, but I don't think macro economic conditions are hurting DVC right now.

This is just one mans opinion.

 

[gtrist4life]

Poorman,

If I could get the selling price data, I'd be more than happy to crunch it.

I'm sure T.E. Yeary has records, but being that the actual transaction is private, not so sure he'd be willing to share.

Don't read too much into this info, it's just a snapshot of one (albeit the largest) re-seller's listings. I view it as more of a quick look to see how many and what is in the re-sale pool, and what the average offering prices are.

I do agree that the longer SSR is on sale, the more re-sales there will be. It's the largest, and most likely will have the largest number of contracts.

Peace

 

[Trebor]

Poorman,

If I could get the selling price data, I'd be more than happy to crunch it.

For lack of any other data, you could use the numbers in the "who's passed ROFR" thread.

 

[sheryl0521]

thanks - I am a number cruncher too and love to see it!

 

[gtrist4life]

Trebor,

Thanks for the tip, I'll look for that thread and compile what they have. Give me a couple of days, we have a new puppy that we're trying to train and computer time is limited

 

[castleri]

Hey D71 remember you asked for speculation.

Assumtions: We the average DISer are the equivalent of a post-doctoral fellow in buying DVC compaired to the average Minnie & Mickey off the street!

The most recently mass purchased resort is SSR, the most recent incentives have been for SSR. Therfore,

MOSTLY:
1) Buyer's remorce has set in. It happens to the current DVC offerring, not to those who waited 6months for a BCV purchase. After AKL is open for a year (or perhaps 2) it will lead the notazoo remorse parade.

TO A LESSER EXTENT:
2) Life events: Divorce, cheating spouse, job changes, layoffs, booming economy, other investment options, loss of a parent, etc. Most recently happening may affect a higher number of most recent sales (SSR). My thinking here, which nay be wrong. Someone who has owned for 10 years may have alrady lost a parent, or have enough resources to share during a divorce, no matter what resort someone bough 12 months ago.

UNSURE OF IMPACT IF ANY:
3) Disney's clamp down on renting. I still believe we have just seen the tip of the iceberg. I expect renting to be deleted, or significantly rephrased in the POS for AKL and CRV. You read that here first folks!

-Tony

Some of my speculation is a little off the wall but I wonder if some of these are people who bought when the incentives were good - F&F , free passes, extra points etc. . Their purchase price was lower than the current resales so now they have used the points, have their APs and enjoyed a vacation or two that would have cost thousands through CRO etc for the cost of the MF. Yes they paid MF and maybe financing but could still come out ahead or at least even after enjoying the perks if they sell off now even paying a commission. At the very least they had deluxe accomodations for a fraction of the rack rate. I know there wouldn't be many of these but there may be a few.

I agree with 1 & 2 above but hope that some renting is allowed as it has allowed me to use my points to finance other trips and pay maintenance fees when I might otherwise have had to consider selling one of my contracts myself. I think it is one of the selling points and would have no problem with a limitation that you can't rent more points than you have available for your own use in your original contracts per year therefore preventing the renting of transferred points in large amounts.

Hopefully I won't have to sell my SSR contract but if I do it will be through TTS which will add it to this list.

 

[senecabeach]

Dont forget to add to this analysis other costs

Here's some other info on pg. 2 Q&A of some of those resales...(multiple companies)

This is on ALL the items, regardless of pt. amt. from this reseller:

""Transaction Information""
We simply require a 25% deposit or $500, which ever is greater. Closing costs for this resort will be ($545est.) for a complete closing which includes warranty deed, title search, title insurance, and escrow services. Buyer is also responsible for a ($195.) administrative fee.

"HOW DO I KNOW WHAT THE CLOSING COSTS WILL BE?"
The closing costs average between $322 up to $775 based on the purchase price. Your agent can give you an exact amount on each of our listings.


NOW... ROFR and the LONG wait aside....add in ALL the costs then see what the "real" price is.

 

[kdzgon]

Poorman,

If I could get the selling price data, I'd be more than happy to crunch it.

I'm sure T.E. Yeary has records, but being that the actual transaction is private, not so sure he'd be willing to share.
....
Peace

Aren't the sell prices public record? I'm not saying that TE Yeary would or even should share, but I believe the recorded deeds include the purchase price (closing costs might need to be estimated and I don't know if dues are reflected, either).

 

[keishashadow]

Number crunchers keep the world running .

Any thoughts/figures as to min. point contracts bringing a much higher per point premium? Appears as though DVC is scooping up most of the smaller contracts for resale, creating a shortage of these easy buy-ins.

IMO, think these resales would garner a much higher pp $ amount as an overall less expensive way to break into the system for the cautious/casual visitor.

Know that if we decide to sell either of our holdings we'd start out asking at least $90 pp & adjust if need be.

 

[greenban]

[snip]EMPHASIS ADDED....Some of my speculation is a little off the wall but I wonder if some of these are people who bought when the incentives were good - F&F , free passes, extra points etc. . Their purchase price was lower than the current resales so now they have used the points, have their APs and enjoyed a vacation or two that would have cost thousands through CRO etc for the cost of the MF. Yes they paid MF and maybe financing but could still come out ahead or at least even after enjoying the perks if they sell off now even paying a commission. At the very least they had deluxe accomodations for a fraction of the rack rate. I know there wouldn't be many of these but there may be a few....[/snip]

I agree with 1 & 2 above but hope that some renting is allowed as it has allowed me to use my points to finance other trips and pay maintenance fees when I might otherwise have had to consider selling one of my contracts myself. I think it is one of the selling points and would have no problem with a limitation that you can't rent more points than you have available for your own use in your original contracts per year therefore preventing the renting of transferred points in large amounts.

Hopefully I won't have to sell my SSR contract but if I do it will be through TTS which will add it to this list.

Absolutely correct! I am ashamed that I missed the above point. Super deals that let you break even by 'churning' a contract!

Very, very good point!

-Tony

 

[kdzgon]

...
As a comparison of total contracts for sale
In Dec last year (1st post) there were 103 contracts for sale
In March this year there were 85 contracts for sale
Today there were 112 contracts for sale.

Peace,
G4L

Today there are 142 on TTS site, although many are marked "sale pending".