Some of my thinking on all this is changing as I look at current reports on the economy. So, aside from government jobs, there aren't massive layoffs. So most people still have the same jobs, same level of income. I think we're likely looking at the cost of some consumer goods to go up. I just got a list of price changes from Withings (consumer medical device company) with their projected mid-May increases due to tariffs. Some items shifted from $129 to $199. That's huge. My sense is that consumers--and I mean consumers in the top 25% of household income, which is the center of the
DVC market--aren't going down this path for optional purchases very often, but they will still have the same level of income. Some of this will be directed at more expensive necessities, like groceries. Hopefully some of it goes to savings. But I think that the level of larger purchases, such as new cars, big toys (like jet skis) are just going to crater out in the coming months, as consumers wait for policies to change on large ticket non-essentials, even if that means three years. So people might be more open to buying non-tariff purchases like DVC (both direct and resale) with whatever disposable income they have left. So maybe there's actually some small upward pressure here on prices, assuming the current level of employment holds--which is a huge "if." Strange times. And if layoffs really start to kick in, particularly for highly-skilled, high salary employees, we'll see lower DVC prices, but oddly lower employment in those groups isn't really happening yet.