Resale or Disney with BLT on my mind....

[3guysandagal]

Resale is, and has been, an option for us since Jan 08, and we have been following the TSS resales pretty diligently over the last 8 mos or so.
We are considering 3 - 100pt contracts at different resorts. (11 month advantage every 3 years in a 1BR lets say)
They are .....BWV (definately), OKW (extended) or AKV, and BLT (VWL may also be an option for OKW or AKV) IM SO CONFUSED!!!!
BLT is my reason for posting this.
A little # crunching here...
SSR accounts for about 45% on the TSS boards, but is the largest with about 31% of DVC rooms (and really not one of our choices, but being a new resort, the #'s are relevant)
BWV at about 4.5% TSS resales
OKW at about 14% TSS resales
AKV (already) is at about 7.5% of TSS resales.
VWL about 6%
I'm sure BLT will have its resales shortly after opening (OK, a year later).
But should we wait??
The hype over BLT being announced shortly, had sort of made us want to move quickly to get in on the advance sales of it to DVC owners.
And then, the announcement (well, posts on these boards lately) that the 100pt contract deal at AKV was ending Sept 20, had made us wonder if getting in quick and easy with AKV thru Disney (days) versus resale in another "Home" (months) would be "worth it" for the early release advantage.
Now, granted, an early buy-in at BLT could be expensive, especially with the economy as it is, and incentives could be offered down the line if sales are "off', so to speak (read that...nobody's buying).
But.....BLT could be pretty popular (well, "will be" may be a better statement), as far as "LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION" goes.
I don't believe the $140/pt buy-in for BLT that has been thrown around on different threads lately is realistic, but do believe $108-115 may be closer.
And then, the possibility of resale $$'s going up accordingly (% wise) could save a few hundred, if not a thousand, dollars, in that respect if bought now.

So my question...

Does anyone feel the DVC owner advantage for first buy-in at BLT, would be worth the extra $$'s of going through Disney now for our AKV, instead of resale later, with the plan of owning the 3 resorts?

Oh, and thats with the expectation that there will be an owner advantage, but thats another thread...

 

[twinklebug]

The only advantage I see to owning dvc before your buy blt (I hate that acronym) would be that you could buy blt at as few as 25 points & go with the banking/borrowing game to build up enough to stay there booking with the 11 month home resort advantage. I recall one of the newer resorts (was it AKV or SSR?) was offered first to existing owners at a higher price than what it was offered to the public for just a month later with incentives. I don't have my numbers here and am too tired to look them up (if anyone can help - please do so, it'd be very much appreciated!)

My answer to your ponderings on where/when/how to buy in - buy where you want to stay. buy when you're comfortable with the decision & either way you go, resale or through Disney, it all works out the same - you'll be happy you did it . I did my research for 4 years, and had pretty much nailed down that I wanted VWL & would be buying in via re-sale. Last winter we stayed at ALV and loved it. I bought AKV just last month with no regrets if that's the only resort I'll be able to book in the future for prime periods. It didn't hurt that the number crunching I did showed that the deals going on were pretty much equal to buying the VWL resale opportunity & going through Disney was fast & easy.

 

[kristenrice]

The price for AKV right now from Disney for the 100 point contract is not much more than going resale. We opted to go resale only because there was ONE contract available for 100 points that had all 100 '08 points available from a Feb UY. When closing costs were factored in, it actually cost us about $50 more to go resale, despite the lower cost per point. If you know that you'd like to own 100 points at AKV, then I would say get on the phone and call Disney. From reading these boards, you're risking 1) that when BLT is released, the price of ALL DVC points will jump; or 2) when BLT is released, there will be BETTER incentives for AKV. Also, once you own, if you add-on at BLT(or anywhere else), you should have no closing costs from Disney.

Good Luck!

 

[dudelydude]

In reading your post, a few things come to mind. Trust me...these are just random thoughts based mostly on my opinion.

1. There have been many on these boards that suspect the climbing number of resales is due to our bad economy. I agree...some people simply can no longer afford to keep their DVC membership. I don't think you will see many BLT resales 1 year out as the purchasers are buying with the tough economy already factored into their budget and decision making.

2. If you really want BLT, you may want to buy at an existing resort now, even if it is a small contract. This will officially make you a DVC member, which will THEN give you priority purchasing at BLT.

3. I have read that the initial buy-in to BLT is $18,000. I do not know this to be true, but let's just say that BLT has an initial required buy-in of 160 points...you are looking at $112 / point, which falls in line with the pricing you have read about.

4. A pp said that once BLT is released, pricing for all DVC points may "jump." I disagree with this. I think that resale on other resort's points will decline due to those that want to sell quick to have cash available for BLT.

5. With BLT, you are looking at an entirely different animal. For those that like the relaxation of the quieter resorts or geographic convenience to Epcot, maybe BLT won't be for them. However, the general feeling is that BLT will be very desireable. I know...I really went out on a limb with that declaration, but this DVC resort will be incredibly unique. Who knows how well it will sell initially and if there will be any resale available at all in the near future.

I hope that helps.

 

[dianeschlicht]

Well, since it's all but official that the price wil probably be in the $112 per point area, if you are set on BLT, then you should wait. On the other hand... if BLT is NOT where you think you want the 11 month booking window (it wouldn't be my choice), then I'd advise buying resale at the resort you do prefer.

 

[kristenrice]

Oops, I think I misunderstood the OP....

I was reading that you wanted 3-100 points contracts, each at a different resort. I see now that you meant you wanted 1-100 point contract and couldn't decide which resort you wanted. THAT makes a difference in my opinion.

I would purchase the resort you want. If that is BLT, then get it when it is initially offered, don't wait for a resale. HOWEVER, if you do only want 100 points, BLT may only be offered for a minimum of 160 and any 100 point resales that may (or may not) become available, could initially be priced HIGHER than Disney's current offering price. (There were 100 point and less AKV contracts for $100+/point until the summer promo came out). That said, if you truly are interested in more than one home, I agree with the PP who recommended buying a small contract now to get in the system, and then you can add a 100 point BLT contract when Disney starts selling them.

 

[5forDiz]

As pps have state purchase where you will love to stay.

If you want to begin your DVC membership by purchasing BLT you will most likely have to purchase 160 points minimum as a first time buyer.

However, if you purchase a smaller resale contract of even less than 100 points ( which will probably take at least a month to close ) then you can purchase add-on contracts at any DVC resort you want including BLT either by purchasing directly through Disney (25 point minimum purchase for add-on contracts ) or through a resale agency/broker.

From what I have read on the DIS boards this morning beginning Sunday, Sept. 21 current DVC members will have a 2 week period to purchase BLT add-on contract before sales open to the public. It seems price per point will be $112 less $5 if 100 points minimum is purchased. If you wanted to take advantage of this current member presale you'd need to purchase 100 points at AKV by Saturday, Sept 20 when that promotion is expected to end.

 

[fadedgirl]

From what I have read on the DIS boards this morning beginning Sunday, Sept. 21 current DVC members will have a 2 week period to purchase BLT add-on contract before sales open to the public.

Has anyone found this 2-week period anywhere official? Thanks!

 

[3guysandagal]

Hi all and thank you for the feedback!

WOW!
With the announcement of BLT and the Treehouses today, I've barely caught up!
To a PP, yes we are "eventually" looking at getting 3 - 100pt contracts.
But this whole BLT and the 100pt AKV ending sort of came up fast.
Decisions will have to be made...

Now, back to dig up more info.

Thanks again everyone!

(OOOHHH its a smilie day!)