Resale is not just cheaper but now a superior product

[ziravan]

DVC, with its new restrictions, has clearly made a two-tiered system.

Specifically, they’ve made purchasing direct a very poor option and purchasing resale within the L14 the far superior product.

The POS for the L14 doesn’t let DVC do what it wants to do: crush resale. So, they’re trying to isolate the Legacy resorts.

But that itself is a key admission. There are more advantages to the L14 than they can legally restrict.

And that now comes into play when deciding how to buy DVC. Buying direct, with its restrictions, at its price, no longer makes financial sense.

Not when you can buy a far superior product at resale prices: the L14 resorts. Location and flexibility, everything you want with a timeshare product and none of the restrictions and inflated prices.

Forget all the restrictions. The base product, great rooms at great prices with flexibility, can now only be had resale.

Buy where you want to stay resale in the L14. Nothing else is worth the extra money.

 

[ziravan]

We used to say that the 2011 restrictions were poor uses of points anyway. It wasn’t that big a deal.

Buying direct to bypass any of the new restrictions is a poor cost/benefit choice.

You now have a very clear choice: the Legacy 14 resorts in prime locations at a comparatively good price resale...

Or playing DVC’s developer games.

It’s no choice at all. Buying direct is far too expensive for the restrictions now tied to that product.

If you want into DVC, the L14 resale is clearly a superior - and cheaper - choice.

 

[Ben E N]

Agreed. If I had the funds right now, I would jump on one of these small Poly resale contracts super quickly.
There is no way in would burn $80-100 more per point to get the same thing direct, just so I could turn down going to a resort I like and spend those points elsewhere instead.

One thing to add on: With these resale restrictions, it makes more sense than ever to rent/stay DVC at a resort before you buy. You are more or less locking in there once 2043 hits.

 

[Wakey]

Having thought about it, I think whilst overall the product everywhere is devalued in reality (your resale cannot be used at new resorts) everything is relative and DVC 1 (L14 or whatever we call it) is not devalued in monetary terms, in fact the opposite.
So when looking at options resale, a buyer of resale will likely go with DVC 1 resorts. A small proportion will also be put off DVC 2 direct. Assuming DVC is attracting new customers, as it always has done, and returning customers buying more contracts, this can only lead to more people chasing DVC 1.
Demand and supply, DVC 1 could increase a lot resale. Plus the ridiculous DVC 1 direct prices add to that.
Post 1/19 I haven't noticed any reductions generally in resale prices. In fact I am seeing them still go up- buyer will accept listed price only.

 

[Spartan86]

One thing to add on: With these resale restrictions, it makes more sense than ever to rent/stay DVC at a resort before you buy. You are more or less locking in there once 2043 hits.

Because you think as the 2042 and later resorts are “re-packaged” existing resale owners will be blocked from booking there? Even resale owners of today with 2054 and 2060 etc resorts?

 

[viper17d]

One thing to add on: With these resale restrictions, it makes more sense than ever to rent/stay DVC at a resort before you buy. You are more or less locking in there once 2043 hits.

This is more important than ever and will be extraordinarily more relevant in the next 5 years than it is today. As new direct points flood the system, it will be more and more difficult to book prime resorts at 7 months. By 2025, it will be near impossible to book at 5 months out for consecutive nights.

The resale restriction on new resorts (Riviera only Riviera), actually helps L14 owners, but my guess is we won’t see that benefit until 2030.

Buy where you want to stay people.

 

[viper17d]

A caveat to this post is Copper Creek. If that’s where you want to stay (and don’t want the 2042 Boulder Ridge), seriously consider going direct if either (a) you will get annual passes and use the DVC direct discount or (b) you want to maintain some flexibility in booking new resorts.

There aren’t a ton of resale contracts out there for CCV, and they aren’t a significant enough discount to completely ignore Direct.

 

[kboo]

It might depend on the price point for Riviera points. If resale prices stay at $130-$160 for the BLT/VGF/Poly/BWV/BCV/CCV group, and Riviera with incentives is $160-185, a direct buyer could pretty easily be sold on paying a little extra (or not any extra at all!) for DVC1 plus DVC2 plus discounts, plus perks, because the Riviera resale restriction isn't going to apply to them.

 

[Ben E N]

Because you think as the 2042 and later resorts are “re-packaged” existing resale owners will be blocked from booking there? Even resale owners of today with 2054 and 2060 etc resorts?

None of these changes will impact any existing owner in terms of where they can stay. That advice was directed at the many, many people who are still looking to buy points, first time or as an add on.

 

[skippytx]

Something I don't think many of us consider, is we are not really the 'average' DVC buyer. We're all fairly well informed, understand the system, and pretty savvy about the ins and outs of DVC. If you're in any of the FB groups or other boards it's very common for people to not understand what they just purchased, how to use it, etc. DVC for some is a quick emotional purchase during the middle of their magical vacation. Many don't even know there is a resale market available.

DVC will sell Riviera points no problem to those folks.

 

[disneynutz]

This move is DVD's plan to kill resale. They raised direct prices, will ROFR L14 resorts and sell the without restrictions. With the prices raised, they will make profit on each ROFR sale.

Bill

 

[ziravan]

Something I don't think many of us consider, is we are not really the 'average' DVC buyer. We're all fairly well informed, understand the system, and pretty savvy about the ins and outs of DVC. If you're in any of the FB groups or other boards it's very common for people to not understand what they just purchased, how to use it, etc. DVC for some is a quick emotional purchase during the middle of their magical vacation. Many don't even know there is a resale market available.

DVC will sell Riviera points no problem to those folks.

Right but resale was never a problem for those folks. If DVC has enough pixie-dusted “was so great a deal I dropped $30K without spending 5 minutes on google” customers to move all their developer points, then why bother with resale restrictions at all?

What do resale restrictions matter to customers ignorant of resale?

But. TO THE EXTENT resale matters enough for them to go after resales, this is a problem for DVC.

A cursory 5 minute glance at this forum should be enough to know that you should “buy where you want to stay” and in the future, that same 5 minute peek will tell you that SOME resales hold their values; just not new direct points.

That message won’t get out to the unwashed masses, just to the very people that DVC are trying to influence with this change.

I suspect that they’ll be influenced alright, just not as DVC expected.

Now. Add in that this is going to either unbalance the exchange or severe brakes will have to be put on DVC2 trading into the L14, and that same 5 minute search will tell potential new buyers that their timeshare value will tank buying direct, and using Riviera points to trade into Poly might be technically possible, but practically it’s a pipe dream.

The guides will be selling flexibility. A 5 minute search of “DVC forum” will tell new buyers that the real flexibility in the system can only be had buying one of the L14.

 

[zemra406]

Because you think as the 2042 and later resorts are “re-packaged” existing resale owners will be blocked from booking there? Even resale owners of today with 2054 and 2060 etc resorts?

I think this exactly. When 2042 hits and BCV/BWV get repackaged - resale will certainly be excluded from booking there (unless you buy a new resale contract at one of those resorts). This is the beginning of home resort only for resale. It’s a long game but will get there over time.

 

[ziravan]

I think this exactly. When 2042 hits and BCV/BWV get repackaged - resale will certainly be excluded from booking there (unless you buy a new resale contract at one of those resorts). This is the beginning of home resort only for resale. It’s a long game but will get there over time.

And in the meantime, the L14 is the way to go.

That’s practically my lifetime, so that’s long enough.

And this is really my point, DVC might be taking the long view on changing their product, but that opens up the “short term” as a better deal.

Since that “short term” is at least through 2042, it’s not really all that short. If you had a child born today, they’d be finished with college before the L14 starts to diminish in value.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

After seeing the Riviera room layouts and decor, I couldn’t agree with you more!

 

[craigkerstiens]

I highly doubt Disney is looking at this from a one year to the next perspective.

In 10-20 years there will be double the DVC resorts. The resorts area of the business is extremely profitable for them, where as it was primarily entertainment 10 years ago they've re-invented themselves. They may start picking up more ROFR and reselling as well as long as they have demand. But the bigger picture will continue to evolve over the next decade or two as they look to extract even more revenue from the Parks division.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I highly doubt Disney is looking at this from a one year to the next perspective.

In 10-20 years there will be double the DVC resorts. The resorts area of the business is extremely profitable for them, where as it was primarily entertainment 10 years ago they've re-invented themselves. They may start picking up more ROFR and reselling as well as long as they have demand. But the bigger picture will continue to evolve over the next decade or two as they look to extract even more revenue from the Parks division.

At what point is DVC saturated or over saturated?

 

[DougEMG]

So what do we think the actual goal of these restrictions are? To make people want to buy direct over resale? Are these changes actually going to do that?

While the classic 14 resorts are still active, I think that the majority of people would be better off buying a resale on a classic 14 resort than direct new resort. You end up with a huge savings on purchase price, plus a higher resale value if you ever want or need to sell.

BLT expires in 2060. If I'm still around, I'll be a 100. So I'm not to worried about what happens as the old resorts expire and there are less resorts to trade into.

Is Disney actually planning the extremely long game here and making these restrictions just so they can turn all the resorts into DVC2 resorts when then expire? That means waiting all the way to CRV expires in close to 50 years from now. I really can't see any short term benefit to what they are doing? This type of change would have worked a lot better being implemented when BLT went on sale.

 

[Greg36]

So what do we think the actual goal of these restrictions are? To make people want to buy direct over resale? Are these changes actually going to do that?

While the classic 14 resorts are still active, I think that the majority of people would be better off buying a resale on a classic 14 resort than direct new resort. You end up with a huge savings on purchase price, plus a higher resale value if you ever want or need to sell.

BLT expires in 2060. If I'm still around, I'll be a 100. So I'm not to worried about what happens as the old resorts expire and there are less resorts to trade into.

Is Disney actually planning the extremely long game here and making these restrictions just so they can turn all the resorts into DVC2 resorts when then expire? That means waiting all the way to CRV expires in close to 50 years from now. I really can't see any short term benefit to what they are doing? This type of change would have worked a lot better being implemented when BLT went on sale.

I agree with what you are saying here. I do have a very difficult time believing that they are playing this sort of long game though. It feels like everything Disney is doing these days is geared toward quarter profits. Setting this up so they eliminate the resale stuff in even 23 years seems too far off their radar in the larger context. Maybe they think this will be enough to increase sales short term. I am concerned with the pattern now and what is coming next. It seems like they just keep chipping away and so if these changes don't result in the outcome they want what will be next? At what point will they say enough is enough with the grandfathering clause or introducing a change where grandfathering is not applicable like some sort of VIP system... I think this will be an interesting year coming up with likely more changes to the system and maybe another significant point reallocation for 2021...

 

[SL6827]

I agree with what you are saying here. I do have a very difficult time believing that they are playing this sort of long game though. It feels like everything Disney is doing these days is geared toward quarter profits. Setting this up so they eliminate the resale stuff in even 23 years seems too far off their radar in the larger context. Maybe they think this will be enough to increase sales short term. I am concerned with the pattern now and what is coming next. It seems like they just keep chipping away and so if these changes don't result in the outcome they want what will be next? At what point will they say enough is enough with the grandfathering clause or introducing a change where grandfathering is not applicable like some sort of VIP system... I think this will be an interesting year coming up with likely more changes to the system and maybe another significant point reallocation for 2021...

I agree, I have been wondering when Disney will pull the Grandfather plug.