Renting out points 2021supply vs demand

[artesian]

I don't think there will be any shortage of points from people looking to get their use year out the door. I'm going to struggle to try to even scratch the 200 I have. My question when I think about do you all think that supply will outweigh demand? If Disney doesn't ramp back to 100% I see a case where there will be way too many points laying around and not enough people to use them? Am I flawed in this thought process? Only thing I can think of is park these in RCI? Never did this so have no clue if this is possible. Curious if anyone else is already thinking of how to get around this next year.

 

[starry_solo]

That's why they limited borrowing.

 

[DL1WDW2]

And what happens next?
Problem solved?

 

[RoseGold]

There are two pieces we don't know, but Disney does: RCI and foreclosures. A lot of points were offloaded into the RCI system, maybe a whole lot?

Disney used to foreclose a lot for missed dues, and they suspend your ability to book or use your points once your dues are late. At this point, they've been waiting months to be able to foreclose on those points, because they aren't allowed to foreclose right now. I'm not sure if Disney suspends your points if you don't pay your payment, as opposed to your dues. That seems like it would be a very important piece in this mess. All of those points might get completely lost by the time Disney is able to sort out the foreclosed accounts a year later.

 

[Sandisw]

I think there will be a saturation of points in the rental department because I have a feeling that Disney will be offering strong incentives that will make less people take the risk on DVC Goven no cancelation and changes.

In terms of being able to book, I think that things may be different but I do think owners will be able to still book if they are flexible. i think we will see more people being able to go with 1 bedrooms now they have excess points.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

A lot of points were offloaded into the RCI system, maybe a whole lot?

But that doesn't open up for villas for others. RCI is a trade group. When Disney send points out through member deposits, they also have to make units available in equal value to RCI. So if someone deposits 200 points in RCI, once it all aggregates Disney make available a 1BR at Saratoga equal to those points.

 

[RoseGold]

So if someone deposits 200 points in RCI, once it all aggregates Disney make available a 1BR at Saratoga equal to those points.

Seems like now would be a good time to open that up...

 

[5th gate dreamers]

after these "coronavirus points" expire, there should be no glut in the system. that glut expires nov 30 right? we didnt run into any coronavirus trouble this year thankfully, so i havent kept up diligently on the glut. i know that renters are expecting to pay $12/pt into next year, and that is just a fantastical expectation. we owners paid tens of thousands of dollars for ownership to rent our non distressed points for pennies on the dollar...nope.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

after these "coronavirus points" expire, there should be no glut in the system. that glut expires nov 30 right? we didnt run into any coronavirus trouble this year thankfully, so i havent kept up diligently on the glut. i know that renters are expecting to pay $12/pt into next year, and that is just a fantastical expectation. we owners paid tens of thousands of dollars for ownership to rent our non distressed points for pennies on the dollar...nope.

No, still a glut. Everyone post-closure who was able to beat the banking deadline banked. It is a fair guess that far more points were banked thtis year than in usual years, which is part of why the reduced borrowing is in effect - there are already too many points moved to the 2021 year.

 

[Sandisw]

No, still a glut. Everyone post-closure who was able to beat the banking deadline banked. It is a fair guess that far more points were banked thtis year than in usual years, which is part of why the reduced borrowing is in effect - there are already too many points moved to the 2021 year.

To add, they are still allowing people to put back borrowed points for canceled trips...which surprises me to be honest.

 

[5th gate dreamers]

ah, good to know. we have always tried to be borrowing points instead of banking (borrow 2018 points to pay for 2017 trip, etc etc) so we would never have distressed points, and this shutdown just buttressed that point. try to always be borrowing from next year for this year to avoid distressed points.

 

[Mickey of the Villages]

after these "coronavirus points" expire, there should be no glut in the system. that glut expires nov 30 right? we didnt run into any coronavirus trouble this year thankfully, so i havent kept up diligently on the glut. i know that renters are expecting to pay $12/pt into next year, and that is just a fantastical expectation. we owners paid tens of thousands of dollars for ownership to rent our non distressed points for pennies on the dollar...nope.

Are you seeing or have you heard of folks asking for points at $12/pt? That seems really really low.

 

[Sandisw]

Are you seeing or have you heard of folks asking for points at $12/pt? That seems really really low.

I have seen it and to be honest, if Disney discounts well, owners will hsve to lower the price or the savings won’t be there much higher.

I already see many $13 to $15 in our own Rent/Trade thread which was not like that last year when I went with a broker.

I know if I need to rent in the next few years, I will be pricing low to stay competitive.

 

[suebeelin]

Good reason to book a nice, spacious 2 bd instead of economizing in a studio next year....

 

[starry_solo]

Good reason to book a nice, spacious 2 bd instead of economizing in a studio next year....

I was actually thinking about a 1 bedroom for 3 of us next year

 

[AllisonLB1994]

Does anyone anticipate brokerage's (David's, etc) lowering their cost per point to keep up with supply and demand as well?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Does anyone anticipate brokerage's (David's, etc) lowering their cost per point to keep up with supply and demand as well?

Haha, no. David's has an epic cash flow problem and a lot of vouchers to redeem.

 

[CraigInPA]

David's is currently trying to use up all the rented points for their customers who won't (or can't) go for their paid-up vacations. This has greatly limited the number of new points they need to fulfill future requests. I can imagine this will continue until the pandemic is under control and borders re-open or until he runs out of distressed pre-paid vacation points. At that point, David's will have to go back to renting new points. If demand remains low at that time, they may choose to lower their compensation level to the owners and the retail price of the points to renters, since Disney's steep discounting by then would make renting DVC points more expensive than booking through CRO.

 

[CarolynFH]

Seems like now would be a good time to open that up...

DVC has - lots of DVC availability offered by RCI this summer/fall and into 2021:

https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/2020-dvc-rci-exchanges-please-indicate-weeks-tpu-or-points.294908/ (navigate to page 24 or so)

https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/2021-dvc-rci-exchanges-please-indicate-weeks-tpu-or-points.308617/

 

[EM Lawrence]

ah, good to know. we have always tried to be borrowing points instead of banking (borrow 2018 points to pay for 2017 trip, etc etc) so we would never have distressed points, and this shutdown just buttressed that point. try to always be borrowing from next year for this year to avoid distressed points.

I’m unclear on how this protects points, but I’ve heard it mentioned elsewhere. If you borrow points into a UY, don’t they have to stay in that UY and then expire at the end of that UY? So aren’t they just as vulnerable to becoming distressed?