Recession on the loom

[happygirl]

9.1% unemployment is not a depression. Negative thinking yields negative results.

You understand the rate is much higher then 9.1, 9.1 only counts the people who can still claim unemployment benefits. There are millions that can no longer get unemployment benefits

 

[MrsPete]

9.1% unemployment is not a depression. Negative thinking yields negative results.

I'm not convinced that unemployment is a very good measure of whether we're in a recession/depression:

1. Something I was shocked to learn: My friend's husband lost his job and was unemployed for over a year. At 18 months (I may not have the details right, but pay attention to the theme instead) he would've lost his unemployment benefits. She explained to me that at that point, he would no longer be unemployed. Yes, if at 19 months he still didn't have a job, his checks would end . . . but even if he didn't yet have a job, he would -- according to the government -- no longer be unemployed.

So, with that system, how in the world can we know how many people are searching for jobs and cannot find them?

2. We all know people who lose their jobs and figure that they won't even look for another job (they'd just go through the motions) until their unemployment benefits were about to run out. I don't pretend to know whether this is a large number or a small number of people, but they do exist.

Again, with those people in the mix, how can we know how many people are actually searching for jobs and are constantly unsuccessful?

My point: I don't think the unemployment number actually tells us much of anything.

On a personal note -- a very unscientific personal note -- 2-3 years ago I knew quite a number of people who were well-qualified to work, who wanted to work, and who were unable to find work. Or unable to find work in their field that'd actually support them; we always had fast-food type stuff and retail work available in our area. TODAY those people are all back to work. I don't pretend to know whether this is representative of the country as a whole.

 

[kydisneyfans]

I'm not convinced that unemployment is a very good measure of whether we're in a recession/depression:

1. Something I was shocked to learn: My friend's husband lost his job and was unemployed for over a year. At 18 months (I may not have the details right, but pay attention to the theme instead) he would've lost his unemployment benefits. She explained to me that at that point, he would no longer be unemployed. Yes, if at 19 months he still didn't have a job, his checks would end . . . but even if he didn't yet have a job, he would -- according to the government -- no longer be unemployed.

So, with that system, how in the world can we know how many people are searching for jobs and cannot find them?

2. We all know people who lose their jobs and figure that they won't even look for another job (they'd just go through the motions) until their unemployment benefits were about to run out. I don't pretend to know whether this is a large number or a small number of people, but they do exist.

Again, with those people in the mix, how can we know how many people are actually searching for jobs and are constantly unsuccessful?

My point: I don't think the unemployment number actually tells us much of anything.

On a personal note -- a very unscientific personal note -- 2-3 years ago I knew quite a number of people who were well-qualified to work, who wanted to work, and who were unable to find work. Or unable to find work in their field that'd actually support them; we always had fast-food type stuff and retail work available in our area. TODAY those people are all back to work. I don't pretend to know whether this is representative of the country as a whole.

I personally know of nobody out of work. I shopped 4 stores today: Dollar Tree, Kroger, Aldi, Meijer. All 4 have help wanted signs up. $8 an hour is better than nothing.

 

[SandrA9810]

We just need to bring jobs back home. It was stupid to send them oversees to begin with. People want things cheap because there isn't the money to go around. Put the money back in their pockets with a paycheck, and they'll be a little more willing to spend it on an American product.

Truthfully it's a vicious cycle that started in the 60-80's when jobs were moved overseas. There wasn't quite the population as there is now, and the need for job openings wasn't as great. Now that there's several people working longer, young people trying to get in, and those stuck in the middle of either being too old or too inexperienced.

There's a ton of age discrimination going on with hiring. Why hire a well experienced person that can still do things with a pen and paper, when you can have a younger person with no skills, and rely's solely on the computer to do the work for him?

 

[marmalade]

I personally know of nobody out of work. I shopped 4 stores today: Dollar Tree, Kroger, Aldi, Meijer. All 4 have help wanted signs up. $8 an hour is better than nothing.

Except you can not raise a family for $8/hr. So yes it's still better than nothing, but these families are applying for welfare benefits just to survive. One can also assume that those stores that are hiring are hiring for part-time.

 

[DawnM]

Thankfully DH has a pretty stable job.

I will try to find the table that lists the government percentages but the rate of unemployment among college graduates and post graduate degreed jobs is far less than high school diploma jobs.

I was surprised to see how different it was.

Here it is:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm

 

[wide awake]

Things are looking up, all I have to do is drive around and see businesses where there were empty buildings a year or so ago. You can't compare wages across the country, or even in the same city for that matter. What looks great to you would be totally unacceptable to someone else...but if you can pay your bills, eat, buy gas...than okay.
I'll agree w/ the lack of work ethic. I see it in my own job, people complaining when all they have to do is work a little harder. I've increased my salary every year since this whole mess started, will make more money this year than ever before...and one of my friends told me the very same thing a couple days ago.

 

[Trinity524]

We are hiring at 15 dollars to start with all (or none) of the OT you want

 

[Colleen27]

I'm not convinced that unemployment is a very good measure of whether we're in a recession/depression:

1. Something I was shocked to learn: My friend's husband lost his job and was unemployed for over a year. At 18 months (I may not have the details right, but pay attention to the theme instead) he would've lost his unemployment benefits. She explained to me that at that point, he would no longer be unemployed. Yes, if at 19 months he still didn't have a job, his checks would end . . . but even if he didn't yet have a job, he would -- according to the government -- no longer be unemployed.

So, with that system, how in the world can we know how many people are searching for jobs and cannot find them?

2. We all know people who lose their jobs and figure that they won't even look for another job (they'd just go through the motions) until their unemployment benefits were about to run out. I don't pretend to know whether this is a large number or a small number of people, but they do exist.

Again, with those people in the mix, how can we know how many people are actually searching for jobs and are constantly unsuccessful?

My point: I don't think the unemployment number actually tells us much of anything.

Unemployment insurance claims are only one measure used to calculate the official unemployment rate, and many people who aren't eligible for unemployment payments are still counted. However "discouraged" workers who are no longer actively seeking employment, those who are working part time but need full time work, and those who take on caregiver roles during a period of unemployment are not counted as part of the workforce. I don't know all the ins and outs of it but it the information is gathers and compiled using sampling theory, not just UE claims.

A simpler measure to understand is the percentage of the population that is employed, and that recently reached its lowest point since women became a major part of the workforce.

 

[Colleen27]

I personally know of nobody out of work. I shopped 4 stores today: Dollar Tree, Kroger, Aldi, Meijer. All 4 have help wanted signs up. $8 an hour is better than nothing.

It is only better than nothing if the cost of going to work isn't greater than $8/hr.

 

[blondietink]

It is only better than nothing if the cost of going to work isn't greater than $8/hr.

Yes, when you figure in commuting costs along with day care/dependent care costs, work clothes, lunch at work, etc., $8.00/hr won't cover it, at least for me. There is no public transportation here at all, so I have to figure in the cost of my car payments, insurance, gasoline, etc. in communing costs.

 

[StephMK]

It's hard to say around here. I see stores going out of business but also new ones opening up. Help wanted signs in some windows but hiring freezes in other areas. Some houses sit for more than a year while others are going in weeks. I would say we did not get hit as hard as some areas but it's not fully recovered either. Housing prices are definitely still lower than before.

We were just talking about this tonight because the fast food joints near our house were deserted at 5:30 pm but we made some returns at the mall and there were plenty of cars in the parking lot. I know we feel the pinch from things like increased gas & food costs and lower value on our house but our taxes on it did not decrease.

 

[OceanAnnie]

We've been out of the recession for quite a while. Recession is an economic term that has to do with growth in GDP. It has nothing to do with how many people are out of work. If robots can build everything and sell it to China at an increasing rate, with 100% of Americans out of work, we aren't in a recession. It would suck for the American worker, but it wouldn't be a recession.

(ETA: It does have something to do with how many people are out of work - and how much people are paid as well - as consumer activity is a driver for GDP. If we don't have people working, we don't have people buying - its interrelated. But at the same time, if we increase exports and productivity, its possible to grow GDP without creating jobs).

..."Actual debt held by the public will reach 72 percent of GDP in 2011 and will climb as the Social Security trust fund’s finances continue to deteriorate."...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/14/debt-now-equals-total-us-economy/

Hard to have growth with the debt we carry.

We are in deep doo-doo.

 

[crisi]

..."Actual debt held by the public will reach 72 percent of GDP in 2011 and will climb as the Social Security trust fund’s finances continue to deteriorate."...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/14/debt-now-equals-total-us-economy/

Hard to have growth with the debt we carry.

We are in deep doo-doo.

Oh yeah. That we are.

 

[Planogirl]

I always see people talking about how they can't hire enough people but if you look a little deeper, these jobs are low paying or very specialized. I don't blame unemployed people for not taking jobs that pay less than their unemployment. Not when you have to pay a mortgage.

The so-called actual unemployment numbers are of course much higher. That includes the underemployed and those who have fallen off the unemployment lists. I'm happy for those that aren't dealing with this but I try to keep in mind that many out there are.

 

[Bungle]

..."Actual debt held by the public will reach 72 percent of GDP in 2011 and will climb as the Social Security trust fund’s finances continue to deteriorate."...

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/14/debt-now-equals-total-us-economy/

Hard to have growth with the debt we carry.

We are in deep doo-doo.

agreed

 

[Princesca]

And you have to be flexible. I was laid off in 2009, filed for unemployment, but never requested a check because I found a consultant job that, while it came with no benefits and was going to pay me half what I was making before, we could live on it, and it seemed like it would be a good opportunity to network, so I took it. That projected was slated to last a year, and I naively thought that maybe the market would be better by then.

It wasn't, so I filed for unemployment and started receiving checks. I applied for EVERYthing. I applied for jobs that were a fit with my background, I applied to be a cashier at Kroger, I thought about starting my own business as a dog walker. In the end, I ended up picking up an adjunct professor gig at a local college, though the pay was not something we could live on long term, but more of a way to draw out my unemployment further and get some training/education background on my resume. And just, generally, to stay sane.

A couple of weeks ago, I was called about a contract to hire job. It's a crappy commute, and (at least while I'm hourly) the pay isn't good and there are no benefits, but I jumped at the chance. It also isn't exactly a field I wanted to get drawn back into. Even if it goes permanent, the pay is still likely to be $30k less than what I was making before the recession. But in this economy, I can't be choosy. I'm just thrilled to have a job.

I generally don't believe any statistics put out by government agencies. Once I heard that they'd come up with something called "core CPI" that they measure, which does not include food and energy prices, I knew they were full of baloney. But if food inflation keeps up like it has been, we'd all be lucky to be full of baloney.

 

[Oglet]

There is a lot on this board about what is a fair wage, $10 an hour is a very fair wage around here and $13 is considered very well paid. Rent for a 3 bedroom house averages $450 and daycare is between $75-85wk. All retail jobs pay minimum wage here and my friend is an auditor for a big hotel chain and she makes $8 an hour and is happy. For us to start at $10 is very generous, so please don't call me cheap!

Then its off to IOWA we go

 

[miprender]

OP I too don't think we have hit bottom. At least not in our state. We have one of the highest unemployement rates in the country and the cost of living is becoming too much for some families.

Rent for a 3 bedroom house averages $450 and daycare is between $75-85wk.

WOW a 3 bedroom rental home anywhere in RI averages between $1000 - $1500 a month.

 

[Oglet]

Orlando or anywhere around Disney World is just plain out broken.

Disney employ such a large number of people that it really sets the bar for wages in the whole region. Tourism is huge and drives the price of many things through the roof.

So you have low wages combined with a high cost of living which equals not good for the local workforce.