Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

I have been following Rasmussen all along during this race, as he has a poll every day and it can really track the every day flow. I know he uses combined polls for his daily measures but it is always interesting. Here are his notes for today:

Friday October 15, 2004--The Presidential debates are over and the election is just two-and-a-half weeks away. The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.

Voters surveyed last night declared the third and final debate a tie, with fans of each candidate thinking their man won. The number of voters who prefer Bush over Kerry on both national defense and the economy has returned to the levels that existed before the first debate.

In the South Dakota Senate race, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle and former Congressman John Thune are tied. This is one of seven Toss-Ups that will determine control of the United States Senate.

Just over one-third of the interviews for today's Tracking Poll were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate. The post-debate sample of 1,000 Likely Voters found the President ahead by just under 3 percentage points.

Our latest Electoral College projections show the President ahead with 240 Electoral Votes to 194 for Senator Kerry. This will be updated at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today

 

[Microcell]

I hope so! We will see how many of the 20 million loud actually roll out of bed to vote on election day. I wish they were the 20 milion informed. There was a college kid talking to Rush Limbaugh when Kerry bypassed Lawrence Kansas (Univ. of Kansas) and this dumb kid said he was so mad that he didn't stop that he may vote for Bush. Okay, a vote for my side, but how many of these kids are voting the other way for equally dumb reasons?

 

[tidoublegger]

How about this latest poll:

Polls in 10 nations show views of America worsening

By Beth Gardiner, Associated Press, 10/15/2004 08:30

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LONDON (AP) America's reputation around the world is hurting, according to a series of coordinated polls published Friday from 10 countries, including many of the United States' closest allies.

In eight of the countries where the surveys commissioned by major newspapers were conducted, more people said their view of America had worsened in the past two to three years than improved. That question was asked in nine countries.

By big margins, those questioned said the war in Iraq did not aid the global fight against terrorism.

And in eight out of 10 nations, those polled said often in landslide proportions that they hoped to see Democrat John Kerry beat President Bush in next month's election. Bush won backing from a majority of respondents only in Russia and Israel.

The polls were conducted in Canada, France, Britain, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Mexico, Israel and Russia, with results to be published in the participating newspapers on Friday. Not all questions were asked in every country.

On average, 57 percent of those questioned said their opinions of America had worsened over the past two to three years, compared with 20 percent who said their view had improved. That question was asked in nine of the countries, but not in Russia.

Seventy-four percent of Japanese, 70 percent of French, 67 percent of South Koreans, 64 percent of Canadians and 60 percent of Spaniards said they had a worse opinion of America now than two to three years ago.

Only in Israel did more people say their view of the United States had improved than worsened in the past two to three years.

In that period, which began just after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the United States has led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While much of the international community backed the invasion to oust the Taliban, Bush's decision to invade Iraq has fueled anger around the world.

However, many of those polled separated their feelings about the U.S. government from their views of the American people. Sixty-eight percent said they had a favorable opinion of Americans.

Asked whether American democracy remained a model for other nations, 52 percent of those asked said yes and 42 percent said no.

In Britain, Mexico and South Korea, more people thought the United States was no longer a model, while in Canada, Russia, Japan and Israel, majorities said it was.

Fifty-nine percent of people questioned in seven nations including Britain, America's closest ally in Iraq said the war there was not helping the world fight against terrorism, while 35 percent said it was, as Bush contends.

People in all 10 countries were asked who they hoped to see win the White House on Nov. 2, and the result will make Kerry wish they had a vote.

The Democrat was favored by healthy to enormous majorities in eight of the nations 72 percent supported him, compared with 16 percent for Bush in France.

In South Korea, it was 68 percent for Kerry and 18 percent for Bush; in Canada, 60 percent to 20 percent; in Spain, 58 percent to 13 percent; in Australia 54 percent to 28 percent; and in Britain 50 percent to 22 percent.

Bush came out on top in Israel by a margin of 50 percent to 24 percent and in Russia, 52 percent to 48 percent.

The newspapers involved were La Presse in Canada, Le Monde in France, the Guardian in Britain, El Pais in Spain, Asahi Shimbun in Japan, JoongAng Ilbo in South Korea, the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age in Australia, Reforma in Mexico, Haaretz in Israel and the Moscow News in Russia.

The sample sizes in the 10 polls varied from 522 people in Israel to 1,417 in Australia. Margins of error were mostly around 3 percentage points, but varied between 2.6 and 4.38.

The polls were conducted on different dates from September through early October.

 

[Galahad]

Polls in 10 nations show views of America worsening

Not really relevant though.

 

[jrydberg]

Let them vote Kerry into office in their countries

 

[tidoublegger]

Originally posted by Galahad
Not really relevant though.

I found it interesting though...

 

[JoeThaNo1Stunna]

Originally posted by tidoublegger
How about this latest poll:

Polls in 10 nations show views of America worsening

By Beth Gardiner, Associated Press, 10/15/2004 08:30

ADVERTISEMENT
LONDON (AP) America's reputation around the world is hurting, according to a series of coordinated polls published Friday from 10 countries, including many of the United States' closest allies.

In eight of the countries where the surveys commissioned by major newspapers were conducted, more people said their view of America had worsened in the past two to three years than improved. That question was asked in nine countries.

By big margins, those questioned said the war in Iraq did not aid the global fight against terrorism.

And in eight out of 10 nations, those polled said often in landslide proportions that they hoped to see Democrat John Kerry beat President Bush in next month's election. Bush won backing from a majority of respondents only in Russia and Israel.

The polls were conducted in Canada, France, Britain, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Mexico, Israel and Russia, with results to be published in the participating newspapers on Friday. Not all questions were asked in every country.

On average, 57 percent of those questioned said their opinions of America had worsened over the past two to three years, compared with 20 percent who said their view had improved. That question was asked in nine of the countries, but not in Russia.

Seventy-four percent of Japanese, 70 percent of French, 67 percent of South Koreans, 64 percent of Canadians and 60 percent of Spaniards said they had a worse opinion of America now than two to three years ago.

Only in Israel did more people say their view of the United States had improved than worsened in the past two to three years.

In that period, which began just after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the United States has led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While much of the international community backed the invasion to oust the Taliban, Bush's decision to invade Iraq has fueled anger around the world.

However, many of those polled separated their feelings about the U.S. government from their views of the American people. Sixty-eight percent said they had a favorable opinion of Americans.

Asked whether American democracy remained a model for other nations, 52 percent of those asked said yes and 42 percent said no.

In Britain, Mexico and South Korea, more people thought the United States was no longer a model, while in Canada, Russia, Japan and Israel, majorities said it was.

Fifty-nine percent of people questioned in seven nations including Britain, America's closest ally in Iraq said the war there was not helping the world fight against terrorism, while 35 percent said it was, as Bush contends.

People in all 10 countries were asked who they hoped to see win the White House on Nov. 2, and the result will make Kerry wish they had a vote.

The Democrat was favored by healthy to enormous majorities in eight of the nations 72 percent supported him, compared with 16 percent for Bush in France.

In South Korea, it was 68 percent for Kerry and 18 percent for Bush; in Canada, 60 percent to 20 percent; in Spain, 58 percent to 13 percent; in Australia 54 percent to 28 percent; and in Britain 50 percent to 22 percent.

Bush came out on top in Israel by a margin of 50 percent to 24 percent and in Russia, 52 percent to 48 percent.

The newspapers involved were La Presse in Canada, Le Monde in France, the Guardian in Britain, El Pais in Spain, Asahi Shimbun in Japan, JoongAng Ilbo in South Korea, the Sydney Morning Herald and Melbourne Age in Australia, Reforma in Mexico, Haaretz in Israel and the Moscow News in Russia.

The sample sizes in the 10 polls varied from 522 people in Israel to 1,417 in Australia. Margins of error were mostly around 3 percentage points, but varied between 2.6 and 4.38.

The polls were conducted on different dates from September through early October.

France wants Kerry? VOTE BUSH!

But honestly this whole poll is irrelevant, we need to look at our interests in surviving as a nation before we care what the French say.

I am glad that a true friend like Israel knows what we are doing is so important.

 

[TXTink]

I gree with jrydberg!

This is good news for President Bush, I hope it stays.

 

[jrydberg]

I would be curious as to how the polls were conducted. Can't speak to any of the others, but The Guardian leans rather heavily to the left in the UK. Kinda like asking Ralph Nader to do a poll on large corporations. Not to say the results are meaningless, but they aren't necessarily indicative of anything.

 

[JimB.]

I don't really think ANY national poll os relevant, other that for sentimental reasons.

The important polls are the individual states. You can bet your paycheck THATS what the parties are tracking. Electoral votes are what they are counting, not nationwide percentages.

 

[Funkyzeit mit Bruno]

Only in Israel did more people say their view of the United States had improved than worsened in the past two to three years.

Bush must be doing something right in the war on terror. I think, more than any other nation, Israel wants to see terrorism utterly defeated. Most of the rest of the world is willing to appease terrorists and live with terrorism as a "nuisance".

On Nov. 2nd we will determine where America stands.

I really do hope the American people will tell Kerry, and the world, that even ONE innocent American killed at the hands of vicious terrorists is a TRAGEDY, not a nuisance.

 

[Geoff_M]

Zogby today is reporting that, even though Kerry may have the 2004 Debate Trophy sitting on his mantle, the undecideds appear to be breaking towards Bush over Kerry.

Personally, I don't put much stock in any poll... whether I like the results or not. With the advent of the popularity of Caller-ID and many people's reliance on cell phones (which pollsters don't, as a rule, call cell numbers) it's really hard to say for sure if they will even come close to bearing out in reality. There's also the issue of sample mix. Most pollsters are using sample mixes (rep/dem/ind) that try to mirror the voter affiliation mix in the 2000 election, but some argue that this actually under represents Republicans because in the last national election cycle (2002 mid-terms) the voter mix swung more towards the GOP than it did in 2000. As a result, the major polling agencies got a large number of Senatorial races wrong (by a lot in some cases) when they applied 2000 voter models to 2002... and they're doing it again for 2004. Will the mix in 2004 look like 2000, 2002, or something else? Who knows!

The bottom line, it all will depend on turn-out. It's now a "ground war" with winner take all.

 

[tonyswife]

Originally posted by JimB.
I don't really think ANY national poll os relevant, other that for sentimental reasons.

The important polls are the individual states. You can bet your paycheck THATS what the parties are tracking. Electoral votes are what they are counting, not nationwide percentages.