Questions that keep me up at night...

[grapefruitjellybean]

I would love to hear your opinions, predictions, anecdotes. Your hopes and dreams, deepest darkest secrets. Tell me everything.

1. Will low seasons ever come back to the parks?
2. Prices continue to increase and free perks have been taken away, yet crowds are insanely high. What's happening here? Revenge travel?
3. Have we seen the end of revenge travel?
4. How much is too much? What is the max you would pay for a Disney trip or what would have to happen for you to stop going or going less often?
5. How can the average family afford a Disney trip these days, especially with a recession looming. Is everyone in debt? Are you super savers?

 

[mickeyluv'r]

#1-3. My take is that WDW itself has changed.

I'm not sure how to explain, but the old idea of empty and full doesn't really apply anymore. It isn't that the parks see the same number of visitors every day of the year, it is that WDW now has a number of ways to adjust operations to match how many people are in the parks.

WDW has been doing some of this for 50 years, but data technology paired with park reservations = WDW knows how many people plan to visit the parks every day.

More or less, all companies want to tightly align staffing to the needs of their customers. Or we might say that in reverse: Disney wants attraction wait times to be within acceptable parameters, as much as possible. To be fair, I think they have faced some significant staffing shortages since reopening.

Some perks have recently returned. That means WDW has probably seen some downturn in customers, or at least advance bookings are down, maybe customer feedback has been trending negative.

4+5. My WDW visits have always been highly variable. We adjust every visit to fit our budget. Some are as short as 1 day at WDW (with the rest of the vacation doing something else). Some years we skip WDW.

 

[grapefruitjellybean]

#1-3. My take is that WDW itself has changed.

I'm not sure how to explain, but the old idea of empty and full doesn't really apply anymore. It isn't that the parks see the same number of visitors every day of the year, it is that WDW now has a number of ways to adjust operations to match how many people are in the parks.

WDW has been doing some of this for 50 years, but data technology paired with park reservations = WDW knows how many people plan to visit the parks every day.

More or less, all companies want to tightly align staffing to the needs of their customers. Or we might say that in reverse: Disney wants attraction wait times to be within acceptable parameters, as much as possible. To be fair, I think they have faced some significant staffing shortages since reopening.

Some perks have recently returned. That means WDW has probably seen some downturn in customers, or at least advance bookings are down, maybe customer feedback has been trending negative.

4+5. My WDW visits have always been highly variable. We adjust every visit to fit our budget. Some are as short as 1 day at WDW (with the rest of the vacation doing something else). Some years we skip WDW.

Thanks for your input! Which perks came back recently? I definitely missed that.
I'll elaborate on my question about low season. Before the pandemic, we saw lower crowds in January and September but that is no longer the case. Why is that? Revenge travel explains a lot of that in the past 2 years, but shouldn't we be seeing the end of that trend? Yet, the parks are continuously packed. I just checked MDE and Peter Pan is at 75, Haunted Mansion is 95, and so on. Staff shortages doesn't explain the crowds. I would love to see the data.

 

[sponica]

1. Will low seasons ever come back to the parks? - there are "softer weeks" but nothing like the early 2010s
2. Prices continue to increase and free perks have been taken away, yet crowds are insanely high. What's happening here? Revenge travel? I'm only one data point, but there were a significant number of trips that were planned/paid for in 2020 that got rebooked to whenever possible (2022/2023)
3. Have we seen the end of revenge travel? I don't think so, again, I'm one data point, but after spending far too long cooped up in my home, my husband refuses to spend more time than necessary in it. whether that destination is local/domestic/international depends on a lot
4. How much is too much? What is the max you would pay for a Disney trip or what would have to happen for you to stop going or going less often? eh, I don't know the answer to that.
5. How can the average family afford a Disney trip these days, especially with a recession looming. Is everyone in debt? Are you super savers? I'm somewhere average-ish, right now we're prioritizing vacations over upgrading our condo into a house?

 

[kylenne]

Thanks for your input! Which perks came back recently? I definitely missed that.
I'll elaborate on my question about low season. Before the pandemic, we saw lower crowds in January and September but that is no longer the case. Why is that? Revenge travel explains a lot of that in the past 2 years, but shouldn't we be seeing the end of that trend? Yet, the parks are continuously packed. I just checked MDE and Peter Pan is at 75, Haunted Mansion is 95, and so on. Staff shortages doesn't explain the crowds. I would love to see the data.

Free parking at the resorts just came back last week.

Crowds in the last year or so have not just been about revenge travel, that was only one factor. A lot of DVC members had points to use or lose from trips postponed during the closures. Many airlines ended pandemic era flexibility policies and people had credits they needed to use.

But January and especially February have been trending upwards even before the pandemic, people were talking about "unusually high crowds and wait times" even back in Jan/Feb 2019. Summer had actually become the closest thing to a "low" season then as evidenced by Disney offering free dining during those months.

I would also caution that wait times do not have a 100% direct correlation with crowds anymore, either, and haven't since before the pandemic. Disney has mountains of guest data that they use to staff down at attractions and they are known to do that, you may not want to believe that has an impact but capacity gets lower when you have fewer attractions CMs on hand, which has a direct effect on wait times. This is one of the reasons crowd calendars became so useless (RIP Josh at EasyWDW but he blogged extensively about this before his passing). Randomly checking MDE the day after a federal holiday isn't going to tell you anything meaningful either. People will linger the day or two after a holiday if they can for cheaper airfares, especially nowadays that many more people are doing remote/hybrid schedules that allow more flexibility with travel.

Not for nothing but more people are just going, period. My personal occam's razor explanation for it is that years of blogs and fan sites telling people that January and February being "slow" has made more people go, the same way October got crazy. Disney has also increased demand during these formerly slow periods by scheduling things like Marathon Weekend.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Thanks for your input! Which perks came back recently? I definitely missed that.
I'll elaborate on my question about low season. Before the pandemic, we saw lower crowds in January and September but that is no longer the case. Why is that? Revenge travel explains a lot of that in the past 2 years, but shouldn't we be seeing the end of that trend? Yet, the parks are continuously packed. I just checked MDE and Peter Pan is at 75, Haunted Mansion is 95, and so on. Staff shortages doesn't explain the crowds. I would love to see the data.

The hotel parking fee is gone.

There is also a change- coming- for AP holders, where they will no longer need a park reservation to enter a park after 2pm. That should be interesting on the day Tron opens which is also Easter week.

A third change in the works is more character greets are coming back.

There's one more I am forgetting at the moment...

I'm not sure it is revenge travel at this point, but rather crowd levels are closer to normal than they were in 2020. (though probably still some.) Travel is now at a level that -on what might have previously been a slower day - WDW just offers shorter park hours. Or they offer fewer shows. On very busy days, WDW even has fireworks twice. MK did that this past NYE. Now they are selling more after hours parties.

Wait times can also be manipulated- somewhat- by adjusting G+ passes. If the wait for Space Mtn gets too short, WDW tosses out a few G+ passes. Instantly 1000 people will go to Tomorrowland. WDW can steer people around the parks quite a bit. They can also control quick serve locations with Mobile order return times.

People who are eating can't ride Dumbo at the same time. Instead of giving everyone the ability to place a noon food order, WDW staggers the times, and that helps to distribute the crowd more evenly.

At what point are people willing to pay for G+? They won't buy it if the attraction lines are all 10 minutes or less. They will buy it if all the attractions are 60plus.

So some people buy G+. The more people who buy G+, the more the standby lines slow down, and the more people buy G+.

Ideally, everyone buys G+.

On top of that, MDE's wait times are often inflated. I personally saw 7DMT posted as 70min when it was really only 15-20minutes. Pirates was also highly inflated. I think the posted wait was 20? and the ride was walk-on. I mean boats left the dock empty. Other posted times were more accurate, so it has become somewhat of a guessing game. Mid-day waits tend to be more accurate, while AM and PM waits are more inflated.

 

[MaidMarian444]

#3: I can’t recall exact definition of “revenge travel”. But anecdotally, I know of at least three older couples in my close circle who are finally getting back on trains/planes in 2023 after avoiding all through 2020 to 2022. I also have someone in family who canceled an Orlando trip in 2022 cause they were worried about catching COVID but is now going this spring. I think the outsized travel demand is still ongoing and hasn’t “normalized”.

 

[jennyq87]

RE: #3 and #5 -- I work in Finance and we've seen a pretty interesting shift in a lot of client priorities since COVID. A lot of our super-savers and FIRE clients have pivoted to more of a "YOLO" mindset. No one is guaranteed tomorrow, or next year, and I think COVID made that feel more real for some people. You have to have balance - and for a lot of people that means more family/travel/vacation time. I've even seen a shift in my own mindset. So yes, I'm sure a handful go into debt. But I also think there's been a values shift in a lot of folks, too, to live more presently.

 

[TheSouthernBelle]

1. Yes, my opinion as the economy/recession slows spending, we'll see more traditional travel schedules at most tourist destinations. However, disney's "low" season of years past, will likely never exist again given a few factors. I think disney sees the travel slowness starting, thus why they've started rolling out some of the promos they have over the last month.
2. I think the revenge travel has slowed, likely still some folks with pent up money from covid but I think most of what we're seeing is the new norms and even pre-covid, the parks slower seasons weren't that slow anymore. More virtual education/work opportunities has allowed people to adjust their traditional work schedule to travel more. I don't have unlimited PTO but my husband does so theoretically, he can be on vacation every week....I'm sure there are people taking advantage of these perks. Also, this ties into your question #1, there are more people and no new disney parks, sure travelers can go elsewhere, but we've had the same number of parks since AK opened in 98. And, disney is a business, they've done a great job of continuing to market to the masses, yet, their prices are starting to draw the line in the sand, in that a disney vacation may not be attainable to all. And while they may alienate some guests that can't make the numbers work, I'd venture to guess, the profit margins on fewer guests, spending more $$, make good dollars sense. And if you have fewer people who spend more, you need less employees, etc.
3. Not just yet, I think it will be coming down the line.
4. I don't necessarily have a max number in my head, I don't love the price increases but it's not anything new and disney's been doing this for years so I feel like we're conditioned to just accept it. I'm sure there could be a number that I'd walk away from but at this time, I've not seen it. As long as I still see a value in our trips of memories made, I think that dictates my spending.
5. I just don't think disney really wants/needs the average family at their parks anymore, sure it's not what Walt envisioned but that's ship has sailed. I think disney is moving to a customer base with higher than average earnings, thus fewer people, potentially higher revenue base and they don't have to add another park if they theoretically have fewer guests. Look at adventures by disney....these trips are likely no less than $15K, likely more, for a family of 4 to travel, that's not the average families' vacation budget. And look at what disney is building for lodging, it's all DVC deluxe accommodations, there's no value hotels in the works. I just feel like disney is cultivating a guest base that is not the middle income family. It's not right, it's not wrong, but from their actions, it's clearly their trajectory.

 

[T.G.I.Friday]

RE: #3 and #5 -- I work in Finance and we've seen a pretty interesting shift in a lot of client priorities since COVID. A lot of our super-savers and FIRE clients have pivoted to more of a "YOLO" mindset. No one is guaranteed tomorrow, or next year, and I think COVID made that feel more real for some people. You have to have balance - and for a lot of people that means more family/travel/vacation time. I've even seen a shift in my own mindset. So yes, I'm sure a handful go into debt. But I also think there's been a values shift in a lot of folks, too, to live more presently.

This is such an interesting observation - thank you for sharing! It puts into words something that we have been doing subconsciously. While we still save, we haven’t increased our savings but are instead using that money for more YOLO experiences.

 

[Pyxie]

Regarding the last question, maybe I have a different view of this because I grew up on the very low end of middle class, but the average American family has never really been able to afford Disney. It's always been the upper middle class and above who could afford it and that's really no different today. My family could have never even dreamed of visiting growing up.

 

[soniam]

I also wonder if more people have found flexible education, ie home schooling, private schools, for the children, that allows for more travel in the off-season. I know people were already taking kids out of school before covid, but I think people realize that many kids can make up for lost time or do it remotely; whereas, they may never have considered it before.

Regarding the last question, maybe I have a different view of this because I grew up on the very low end of middle class, but the average American family has never really been able to afford Disney. It's always been the upper middle class and above who could afford it and that's really no different today. My family could have never even dreamed of visiting growing up.

I completely agree with this. I went twice as a kid with my grandpa, since I was the only grandchild. My single mother couldn't afford to take me or even take the time off to take me. We didn't fly or stay onsite either or visit for more than 2-3 days. The people that I knew who went when I was a kid were either fairly well off or only visited a 1-3 times total. I remember being very thankful that I ever got to go; my husband never went as a kid. We go frequently now, but we are definitely in the upper middle class with 2 engineering jobs and 1 child.

 

[sponica]

Regarding the last question, maybe I have a different view of this because I grew up on the very low end of middle class, but the average American family has never really been able to afford Disney. It's always been the upper middle class and above who could afford it and that's really no different today. My family could have never even dreamed of visiting growing up.

Oh I feel this. My mom was a teacher and she scrimped and saved to take me as a high school graduation gift.
And the first time my husband and I went with my oldest, we could only go because he had a bunch of miles banked from his job. Somehow we both ended up with much better paying jobs in 2020/2021 so our trips are longer now. We have a trip plannned next month, then I think we might start doing other things. (Famous last words)

 

[Jmljasmine]

The hotel parking fee is gone.

There is also a change- coming- for AP holders, where they will no longer need a park reservation to enter a park after 2pm. That should be interesting on the day Tron opens which is also Easter week.

A third change in the works is more character greets are coming back.

There's one more I am forgetting at the moment...

I'm not sure it is revenge travel at this point, but rather crowd levels are closer to normal than they were in 2020. (though probably still some.) Travel is now at a level that -on what might have previously been a slower day - WDW just offers shorter park hours. Or they offer fewer shows. On very busy days, WDW even has fireworks twice. MK did that this past NYE. Now they are selling more after hours parties.

Wait times can also be manipulated- somewhat- by adjusting G+ passes. If the wait for Space Mtn gets too short, WDW tosses out a few G+ passes. Instantly 1000 people will go to Tomorrowland. WDW can steer people around the parks quite a bit. They can also control quick serve locations with Mobile order return times.

People who are eating can't ride Dumbo at the same time. Instead of giving everyone the ability to place a noon food order, WDW staggers the times, and that helps to distribute the crowd more evenly.

At what point are people willing to pay for G+? They won't buy it if the attraction lines are all 10 minutes or less. They will buy it if all the attractions are 60plus.

So some people buy G+. The more people who buy G+, the more the standby lines slow down, and the more people buy G+.

Ideally, everyone buys G+.

On top of that, MDE's wait times are often inflated. I personally saw 7DMT posted as 70min when it was really only 15-20minutes. Pirates was also highly inflated. I think the posted wait was 20? and the ride was walk-on. I mean boats left the dock empty. Other posted times were more accurate, so it has become somewhat of a guessing game. Mid-day waits tend to be more accurate, while AM and PM waits are more inflated.

I had a different experience. 7DMT said 50 and it was closer to 90. A few others like that over the summer. Essentially this means the wait times are just completely random.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Regarding the last question, maybe I have a different view of this because I grew up on the very low end of middle class, but the average American family has never really been able to afford Disney. It's always been the upper middle class and above who could afford it and that's really no different today. My family could have never even dreamed of visiting growing up.

I would slightly disagree there, but it partly depends when your childhood was and how close one lived to WDW. It was, and to some extent still is possible to visit WDW on a shoestring budget.

My early visits, we didn't stay on property. We drove to WDW, slept 1 night in the car, and partly ate food from home. We stayed in a very lost cost motels and condos. I mean my mom would make a pan of lasagna or similar budget meal, freeze it, and pack it in a cooler. That was dinner for multiple nights of the trip. It wasn't great, but it was edible. She also bought/brought groceries, same as she would at home. Just south of WDW, we visited the orange groves, and bought oranges in bulk. We mostly only drank tap water. Food costs were kept to less than what we normally spent at home.

Other than 1 day at WDW, we visited the beach, Florida State Parks, National Parks, and found other things to do that were free or nearly free.

I still sometimes take budget trips to Florida/WDW, not quite to the same level, but we often keep food costs very low and spend time at free/near-free parks. Universal has some low-cost dining options, like Panda Express. Eating offsite carry out saves money.

Some parts of FL have little condos that don't cost much to rent for a week. They don't have housekeeping and are nothing fancy, but they don't cost very much.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

I had a different experience. 7DMT said 50 and it was closer to 90. A few others like that over the summer. Essentially this means the wait times are just completely random.

I would not say the signs are 100% random, but they are often inaccurate, and tend to be inflated.

Mind, I do believe you. I have also seen times where the wait was longer than posted plenty of times.

New rides and those that are prone to break downs trend longer than posted, like Rise (esp when newer), Space Mtn, and Splash.

Mid-day waits tend to be long- as posted or sometimes worse.

During the peripheral park hours (early and late) is when the wait tends to be shorter than posted.

 

[TheSouthernBelle]

I would slightly disagree there, but it partly depends when your childhood was and how close one lived to WDW. It was, and to some extent still is possible to visit WDW on a shoestring budget.

My early visits, we didn't stay on property. We drove to WDW, slept 1 night in the car, and partly ate food from home. We stayed in a very lost cost motels and condos. I mean my mom would make a pan of lasagna or similar budget meal, freeze it, and pack it in a cooler. That was dinner for multiple nights of the trip. It wasn't great, but it was edible. She also bought/brought groceries, same as she would at home. Just south of WDW, we visited the orange groves, and bought oranges in bulk. We mostly only drank tap water. Food costs were kept to less than what we normally spent at home.

Other than 1 day at WDW, we visited the beach, Florida State Parks, National Parks, and found other things to do that were free or nearly free.

I still sometimes take budget trips to Florida/WDW, not quite to the same level, but we often keep food costs very low and spend time at free/near-free parks. Universal has some low-cost dining options, like Panda Express. Eating offsite carry out saves money.

Some parts of FL have little condos that don't cost much to rent for a week. They don't have housekeeping and are nothing fancy, but they don't cost very much.

I was going to say the same thing. Growing up in FL, through the 80s/90s, WDW was/could be very budget friendly for FL residents, it's certainly not the cost of admission it is today for locals at all. Growing up we'd go for the weekend or the day only and very rarely stay onsite. My husband's family visited Disney when he was a kid but it was a one time trip and done, and they stayed with family, drove from the midwest and didn't eat out much.

 

[MartyParty]

I would love to hear your opinions, predictions, anecdotes. Your hopes and dreams, deepest darkest secrets. Tell me everything.

1. Will low seasons ever come back to the parks?
2. Prices continue to increase and free perks have been taken away, yet crowds are insanely high. What's happening here? Revenge travel?
3. Have we seen the end of revenge travel?
4. How much is too much? What is the max you would pay for a Disney trip or what would have to happen for you to stop going or going less often?
5. How can the average family afford a Disney trip these days, especially with a recession looming. Is everyone in debt? Are you super savers?

Interesting thread. I'll add comments to question #4 How much is too much? What is the max you would pay for a Disney trip or what would have to happen for you to stop going or going less often?

For us the amount we will pay is comparable to the amount we might pay doing something else. To be more specific, we pay for airfare to go to Disneyland or WDW. With that in mind there's lots of other places domestic or international to consider. We are also within driving distance of a cruise terminal port often finding good deals. So that's another competitor to the Mouse for us. The one thing that helps keep Disney in play is we bought DVC points some time ago. Those points did not matter as much when value and moderate resorts were $100 to $200 a night range. Long gone are those days. Yes we have annual maintenance fees but we tend to use our points for 1 or 2 bedroom suites which we likely wouldn't pay cash.

 

[grapefruitjellybean]

RE: #3 and #5 -- I work in Finance and we've seen a pretty interesting shift in a lot of client priorities since COVID. A lot of our super-savers and FIRE clients have pivoted to more of a "YOLO" mindset. No one is guaranteed tomorrow, or next year, and I think COVID made that feel more real for some people. You have to have balance - and for a lot of people that means more family/travel/vacation time. I've even seen a shift in my own mindset. So yes, I'm sure a handful go into debt. But I also think there's been a values shift in a lot of folks, too, to live more presently.

Yolo is my mindset whenever I book a trip

 

[disneyseniors]

I would love to hear your opinions, predictions, anecdotes. Your hopes and dreams, deepest darkest secrets. Tell me everything.

1. Will low seasons ever come back to the parks?
2. Prices continue to increase and free perks have been taken away, yet crowds are insanely high. What's happening here? Revenge travel?
3. Have we seen the end of revenge travel?
4. How much is too much? What is the max you would pay for a Disney trip or what would have to happen for you to stop going or going less often?
5. How can the average family afford a Disney trip these days, especially with a recession looming. Is everyone in debt? Are you super savers?

Like others, I don't think there are many low seasons anymore. However, September seems to be slower, but it is as hot as the surface of the sun, to me, LOL. We tried it once and about melted walking around Epcot.

I believe revenge travel is slowing down with the economy and inflation as main reasons.

WDW has always been expensive. We have been going since l977 and have always paid more than other destinations. However, the cost was worth it to us every time, but not anymore. The return of investment is just not there any more for us due to the many factors that have been discussed over and over on here.
It took alot for us to quit disney, but we did reach that point. We have switched to Universal, which we have always loved. No going back for us, Unless they change all their ways and go back to the way it was with excellent customer service and actually caring about the parks and people.

I think a lot of people charge their vacations and then pay them off. It's their business how they finance their vacations, IMO. But CC debt can be a bad thing if it is not paid off. We are not super savers, whatever that is? And we dont' go into debt for vacations. We are retired and have provided for travel in our older years.