I just saw a post where at 7 months out, you are most likely to be booking at the SSR.
I took this to mean that it is easier to get a reservation at SSR and may not be my best choice for a home resort. I should choose another tougher resort in my list so I can get it at the 11 month window there and I can always get SSR at 7 months.
Is my thinking correct?
Here is my list of resorts I am looking at as a home resort
1A BCV
1B SSR
1C VWL
4 BWV
5 OKW
Not a member, yet.
Or SSR may be your best choice, it depends. IMO it's all about balance. Balance between up front costs, yearly fees, how you'll use it, where you'd prefer to stay and how disappointed you'll be if you can't get what you want. IMO most new buyers don't have enough knowledge and experience to know where they want to stay most or how they'll feel at a resort that's not their first choice. The only way to truly know this is to stay at all of the resorts at least once but that's not realistic other than second generation type buyers. Having a good timeshare base and a little Disney base or an extensive Disney base are realistically the best situation for most people. Even then a trip or 2 to a
DVC resort using points (rental) is advisable even if one meets the other criteria. It's just not the same staying on cash. I'd suggest 6 months of active investigation and at least 1 or 2 DVC stays. I also feel a good off property trip in a good timeshare is advisable. An off property stay 20 yrs ago in motel 6 does count.
Only you can answer these questions. In addition one needs to be able to afford it (to me that's pay cash with no consumer debt), plan at least 7 months out and be OK with the commitment, risks, & limitations of a timeshare. Basically most new buyers don't understand these issues and almost none are going to be in a position to truly know the best home resort for them. And it may change over the years, it has for many if not most of us. Many new buyers go in thinking they want the newest resort because it's new and hyped and that approach is VERY expensive. If one did that with VGF or Poly, you'd pay 2.5 times up front and 25% more yearly assuming you bought the same number of points compared to SSR. Then you just need to decide what compromise works for you, if any. If one buys VGF or Poly, they should buy a fixed week IMO, even if it's not the unit size or time of year they plan to use assuming the points amounts is within reason to what they need.
I'm a big believer in underbuying both in terms of points and home resort. Assuming current prices, the best dollar value for WDW is almost always SSR. BLT, AKV and BWV can be great options IF one will use the specialty villa options consistently. BLT is the best value for a monorail resort or MK resort over VWL even at the higher price due to the standard view villas and lower fees. The exception to underbuying contract size is that generally most buyers should start at 150 or above even if they have to wait to be able to afford it or rent out every few years to use up points.
I would agree that family size and villa size affects choices somewhat. The best choices for a family of 5 can be somewhat different though in the end most families of 4 or above are best looking at 2 BR once the kids get old enough to bring friends, not sleep together and complain about the pullout. IMO BCV is one of the poorer values in that it's small, has multiple booking categories, is higher comparatively and has relatively high fees. For the EPCOT area I feel BWV is a much better value because not only is it lower up front, it has the standard view villas and it has more rooms helping a little with availability. It does have a lot of booking categories as well and all of the villas are lockoff's which can be good or bad depending since the second in a 2 BR is one bed and a pullout.
For most new buyers I'd suggest SSR is the best option going in. Then if they find the one perfect love they can either buy an additional contract (one reason to underbuy points) or sell and re-buy. This is a much better and cheaper option that overbuying. AKV will be 25% more long term, VGF/Poly will be 3 times as much long term and most of the rest expire 2042. OKW worries me due to the fact that more than half of the buyers there will drop out in 2042 creating a difficult situation for dues and resort management. They may transition it well, they may not, it simply adds risk.
Assuming one isn't trying for specialty items at the other resorts (AKV value/concierge, BWV standard, BCV 2Q 2BR, BLT standard, VGF in general) one should be able to try other resorts on a routine basis most of the time. Assuming one isn't traveling weeks 13, 14, 27, 51 or 52, one should be able to stay at all resorts over time with good planning including VGF. People say (and I used to) "buy where you want to stay" but I feel that's wrong and has the risk of encouraging people to overspend due to emotional reasons. I don't believe most new buyers can answer that question accurately of where they'll want to stay, likely a better version is "buy where you wouldn't be upset staying if you couldn't get anything else" and even that assumes the experiences I mentioned above. Those where finances don't matter at all are unlikely to buy DVC regardless, this assumes one actually cares about cost and value. Bill frequently makes the point one can always sell if the home resort or purchase doesn't work out and I'd agree with that up to a point but ONLY if it's a resale purchase and not VB or HH and it makes the underbuying all the better choice.
Some will tell you to buy multiple smaller contracts for insurance in selling later. IMO this is a poor choice if it costs much more and it does in every case except possibly if you can find a single owner with multiple contracts that are linked together. It can easily add $10-20 a point to the buy in, that's very expensive insurance since I feel one should NEVER buy with the specific intent to sell later assuming market prices. IMO it's not difficult to own at SSR and never or almost never stay there eve for early Dec and Xmas.
Bill
