PVB studios are perfect......for some people & some stays

[ziravan]

I'm almost right there with you, ziravan, until I think about how GFV owners are *using* their points. The evidence shows that a large fraction of them bought with the sole intention of booking studios. Studios that don't connect. Studios that don't have w/d. Studios with no king bed. Why? Because the larger units just cost too many points. In the face of that reality, the decision to make most of PVB studios seemed to make sense.

I admit, it's not what *I* wanted to see, because I think studios are nothing more than glorified hotel rooms. But, the Membership base seems to love them. They book first, system-wide. DVC is busy retrofitting existing studios (but usually *not* 1BRs) to sleep five.

So, it is possible that something else is going on at PVB. Maybe the Guides just aren't pushing it yet. Maybe purchasers aspire to larger units but don't book them, so their absence matters more than it seemed like they should. It will be interesting to see what happens when GFV closes, for sure.

This is why I bought a fixed week lake view at Poly. If your observation is correct, then 3 years or so down the line having a F&W fixed week is going to be wonderful insurance. I hedged based on the possibility that PVB studios will book like GFV after it gets close to sellout.

And I agree that this is almost certainly the data that DVD was looking at when it made its Poly decisions. It makes sense.

And then. When those decisions were released to the public, the pent up owner demand for Poly expressed itself....with a massive buy-in at GFV. The people waiting on Poly saw what was being offered, and flinched. That seems to be what the data is showing.

Don't get me wrong. I bought at PVB. I bought a fixed week that is only really justified if sales overwhelm expectations. I want to see my decision validated by demand. I want to nod approvingly that my week is booked at 12 months while everybody else is scrambling and/or walking for an 11 month reservation. It just doesn't seem to be the case.

So. NOW that the reality is different from the planning and there obviously IS a difference between identical demand at PVB vs GFV, how will DVD respond?

They can just wait until GFV sells out (and because of the wave of new GFV owners after PVB's rollout, that shouldn't be long). Then they can sell PVB without a WDW alternative.

Or. They can address some of the concerns at PVB.

I think the easiest fix is addressing connecting rooms as a booking category. I expect that to happen because I suspect that the feedback on that issue alone is probably undeniable as setback to sales. That's so obvious that's it's probably affecting new sales as well. Even a novice buyer can see that a request is not a guarantee and I'm sure that they must disclose this fact.

Whether DVD looks at the other member concerns about PVB (w/d, 1br, king bed) or not depends on just how badly PVB is doing compared to estimates and just how much DVD wants to correct it. I don't know the answer to that. Unfortunately, my guess is that PVB will lose a few hundred thousand points in sales to GFV. DVD might care about that, or not. I'm not sure.

 

[Minniesgal]

I have tried really hard to get my head around staying in a studio but after 10 years of 2 bedrooms with laundry facilities it is the lack of laundry facilities that is the deal breaker for me. As we go to a family of 5 now 3 but soon just 2 I still don't see us going below a 1 bedroom.

 

[wdrl]

So. NOW that the reality is different from the planning and there obviously IS a difference between identical demand at PVB vs GFV, how will DVD respond?

They can just wait until GFV sells out (and because of the wave of new GFV owners after PVB's rollout, that shouldn't be long). Then they can sell PVB without a WDW alternative.

I think its premature to state there is a difference in demand between PVB and VGF.

The first two weeks of March has seen 974 deeds recorded for the WDW resorts. Normally, the WDW resorts generate about 1,000 to 1,200 deeds a month, so March should be a very good month for direct sales (see these charts for a historical perspective of DVC sales over the last five years). Sales to new members started on February 9, 2015, and those deeds started appearing on the Orange County Comptroller's website at the very end of February. I haven't broken down the March sales by resort, but the number of PVB deeds has been getting proportionately larger as time goes on.

I agree that DVD can't sell a resort that people don't want: Vero Beach is a classic example of this. But DVD seems to have the uncanny ability to focus the buyers' attention on whatever property it wants to sell. Take a look at how AKV sales have fluctuated over the years. In the Fall of 2010, AKV sales dropped significantly, bottoming out only 7,985 points in November 2010. By the Spring of 2012, AKV was selling 20+ times that amount, reaching 197,087 points in May 2012. Did the buyers' desire for AKV dramatically change in those 18 months? Or was DVD successful in the Fall or 2010 in focusing the buyers' interest in BLT at the exclusion of AKV?

Over the years, other spikes in sales tend to show that DVD can manipulate interest, if not demand, in certain properties: OKW in Spring 2010; BWV in early 2013; SSR in the Fall 2011. It would not surprise me if DVD has decided it wants to clear its inventory of VGF points and the Guides have been successful in having buyers choose VGF over PVB.

By the way, there are quite a few new buyers of VGF who are only getting less than 100 points. Maybe they intend to bank and borrow their points to get into a one-bedroom every two or three years. But I suspect a large number of them will be in the market only for studios and will not be booking VGF's larger accommodations.

I agree with Brian Noble's post that studios are what many DVC members want. As the DVC product has matured, its not necessary that a new DVC property be everything to everyone.

 

[Sammie]

I think one thing affecting sales right now at the Polynesian is it is a construction mess. At the Grand Floridian when the villas opened, everything on that property was finished. The Polynesian is still very much a work in progress, especially the pool areas.

 

[wdrl]

I think one thing affecting sales right now at the Polynesian is it is a construction mess. At the Grand Floridian when the villas opened, everything on that property was finished. The Polynesian is still very much a work in progress, especially the pool areas.

In addition, there were several States, including New York, California, and Minnesota, in which DVD was not licensed to sell PVB when sales commenced on January 12, 2015. I think DVD is now licensed to sell PVB in New York and Minnesota, but I'm not sure about California.

 

[ziravan]

I think its premature to state there is a difference in demand between PVB and VGF.

The first two weeks of March has seen 974 deeds recorded for the WDW resorts. Normally, the WDW resorts generate about 1,000 to 1,200 deeds a month, so March should be a very good month for direct sales (see these charts for a historical perspective of DVC sales over the last five years). Sales to new members started on February 9, 2015, and those deeds started appearing on the Orange County Comptroller's website at the very and of February. I haven't broken down the March sales by resort, but the number of PVB deeds has been getting proportionately larger as time goes on.

I agree that DVD can't sell a resort that people don't want: Vero Beach is a classic example of this. But DVD seems to have the uncanny ability to focus the buyers' attention on whatever property it wants to sell. Take a look at how AKV sales have fluctuated over the years. In the Fall of 2010, AKV sales dropped significantly, bottoming out only 7,985 points in November 2010. By the Spring of 2012, AKV was selling 20+ times that amount, reaching 197,087 points in May 2012. Did the buyers' desire for AKV dramatically change in those 18 months? Or was DVD successful in the Fall or 2010 in focusing the buyers' interest in BLT at the exclusion of AKV?

Over the years, other spikes in sales tend to show that DVD can manipulate interest, if not demand, in certain properties: OKW in Spring 2010; BWV in early 2013; SSR in the Fall 2011. It would not surprise me if DVD has decided it wants to clear its inventory of VGF points and the Guides have been successful in having buyers choose VGF over PVB.

By the way, there are quite a few new buyers of VGF who are only getting less than 100 points. Maybe they intend to bank and borrow their points to get into a one-bedroom every two or three years. But I suspect a large number of them will be in the market only for studios and will not be booking VGF's larger accommodations.

I agree with Brian Noble's post that studios are what many DVC members want. As the DVC product has matured, its not necessary that a new DVC property be everything to everyone.

I hope you're right. I'm not inclined to want to see Poly fail. I want to see it be an unqualified success. It's one of my home resorts for a reason.

I have looked at just about everything posted on the DVC online community trying to read tea leaves. Between the boost in sales of GFV and what seems like a lackluster first month in PVB sales, combined with all the negative feedback, I really wonder how DVD is interpreting their rollout. I know many members feel it rolled out 'like a lead balloon'. Maybe that's just the echo chamber of a vocal minority. Maybe all the new resorts get dissed some by existing members (although the PVB treatment seems harsh compared to what I've read about others). I don't know.

I guess I'll sit back and look at the numbers longer. I will say that we bought a month ago and had our paperwork back quick - and as of Friday our deed still isn't on the Compt website...

 

[DenLo]

I think one thing affecting sales right now at the Polynesian is it is a construction mess. At the Grand Floridian when the villas opened, everything on that property was finished. The Polynesian is still very much a work in progress, especially the pool areas.

I agree. I really think it is a real combination of items affecting sales.

• No 1BRs nor 2BRs
• Ongoing construction that affects the Lava pool and restaurants, lounges
• High cost to purchase points
• High point cost per night for all villa types or views
• No inexpensive villa type (like AKV value or BWV standard views or any or all of OKW's villas)
• No guaranteed reservation of connecting studios

Many DVC members love one and two bedrooms but I agree with the others that posted above, it is apparent that DVC members are willing to downsize to save points.

 

[wdrl]

I hope you're right. I'm not inclined to want to see Poly fail. I want to see it be an unqualified success. It's one of my home resorts for a reason.

In November 2013, about six months after sales started for the Villas at Grand Floridian, there was a rumor floating around that DVD executives were unhappy with sales for the resort (see this article for more details). I don't know how much truth there was in the rumor, but it seemed to come from more than one reputable source.

If DVD was worried about poor sales, it didn't try to kickstart sales by offering lower prices or special incentives. At the time of the rumor, VGF was selling for $150 a point. Today, it is selling for $165 a point and DVD has yet to offer any incentives for VGF, not even to Cast Members. I think VGF is the first and only DVC resort for which no incentives have ever been offered. VGF is on course to sell out within the next month or two, which means that DVD has been able to sell about 2.3 or 2.4 million VGF points in less than two years, and all at top dollar.

With benefit of hindsight, should we dismiss the 2013 rumor as baseless, or at least agree that DVD executives had nothing to worry about? Maybe, maybe not. We don't know what projections were made by TWDC when it gave the green light to DVD for the VGF project. Maybe they thought VGF would hit the $180 or $200 mark by now, so selling VGF today for "only" $165 is a disappointment. Its like when a company reports record profits and revenue and a huge jump in market share for its product, but its stock still drops 10%. Why? Because the stock market analysts all expected even bigger increases. Unless we are privy to the inner workings of TWDC and DVD, we'll never know whether something is a success or a failure.

In PVB's case, there has been a lot of negative pushback from certain quarters. But I've been around DVC long enough to know every new resort gets ragged on to some degree. There were lots of people unhappy (upset?) that VGF wasn't offering an extra bathroom in the one- and two-bedrooms like at BLT and AKV-Kidani. People ragged on Aulani being on the "wrong" island. Despite being one of the few DVC resorts with actual Mickey Mouse artwork hanging in the villas, BLT was accused of having no Disney theme. Someone posted recently that some OKW owners were not pleased with BWV when it rolled out in 1996. Yet, each of these resorts have its legion of fans. The pushback against PVB will always be there, but PVB, too, will have its legion of fans.

 

[disneynutz]

IMO PVB is selling as anticipated, the only mistake that I see is the delayed ability to sell in some States including Texas. In a few months, VGF will fall off of DVD's new resort list, construction will almost be completed at PVB and like everything Disney they will sell in record numbers.

DVC's new management team is more about profit than ever and the SVP in charge had a significant hand in the planning and soon to be success of Disney Springs. He has already made several changes with the DVC which doesn't benefit existing owners and I expect more to come.

I say again, PVB wasn't built to be a big existing owner add-on and this info is coming from some DVD insiders.

Bill

 

[Leia's Mom]

I am currently on my first official DVC stay, and I can finally say that I see why some people were so passionate that the Poly wasn't for them. However, I think that so many people miss the fact that DVC is absolutely not one size fits all. My husband, in his absolute wisdome, bought us two contracts. I have 160 points at AKL and 160 at Poly. Why? Well, I do the marathon each year with just my husband. Every year. I always stay at the Poly. I love the Poly. Bam, that uses lots of points each and every year. What is left goes for other stuff. As for the AKL, that is a 1 bedroom about every other year with my two girls for a week. And, in a few years, they will be gone. No grandkids for a while. By the time I have grandkids, I hope I will have suckered him into more points so that we can go with the kids and their families in a 2 bedroom. That's the cool thing about this -- my husband planned the next lifetime of vacations with me and our children. Wow. How wonderful is this. Kitchen and laundry? I'll figure that out later

Investment for me? No. I won't save money in the long run probably. However, what I get from planning? Can't buy that.

 

[skier_pete]

I think anyone that thinks they'll put laundry machines in studios is kidding themselves. I realize their are currently no (public) plans for 1-bedrooms at PVB, but one-bedrooms in general cost you almost TWICE as much money/points for:
1) A full kitchen
2) A larger bathroom
3) A washer/dryer
4) More space

There's already a large percentage of folks that don't see these benefits as worth it, which is why the studios are so much more popular than the 1-bedrooms.

As is already evidenced by this thread, a good portion of the people that stay in the 1-bedrooms consider that washer/dryer an important reason for getting a 1-bedroom - possibly more important than the kitchen. (I personally don't get it, but we've NEVER done laundry at Disney - even for 10 night stays.) If you suddenly start putting washers in the studios, you are taking away 1/4 of the reason for choosing a 1-bedroom. I don't see Disney doing that. ESPECIALLY if they end up building a 1-bedroom/2-bedroom tower at the same resort.

 

[ziravan]

I think anyone that thinks they'll put laundry machines in studios is kidding themselves. I realize their are currently no (public) plans for 1-bedrooms at PVB, but one-bedrooms in general cost you almost TWICE as much money/points for:
1) A full kitchen
2) A larger bathroom
3) A washer/dryer
4) More space

There's already a large percentage of folks that don't see these benefits as worth it, which is why the studios are so much more popular than the 1-bedrooms.

As is already evidenced by this thread, a good portion of the people that stay in the 1-bedrooms consider that washer/dryer an important reason for getting a 1-bedroom - possibly more important than the kitchen. (I personally don't get it, but we've NEVER done laundry at Disney - even for 10 night stays.) If you suddenly start putting washers in the studios, you are taking away 1/4 of the reason for choosing a 1-bedroom. I don't see Disney doing that. ESPECIALLY if they end up building a 1-bedroom/2-bedroom tower at the same resort.

I agree that if they end up building 1BRs at Poly that it would seriously undermine the business model of a 1BR to put W/Ds in a studio.

If that isn't their long term plan, then a W/D in the studios would cement the Poly studios as a unique product.

To the point of PVB sales, not having either option - plans for a W/D option short of a bungalow - is hurting sales I believe.

DVD should announce one or the other: that they intend to put W/D in the studios, or in a near future expansion in 1BRs.

I doubt we'll see a W/D in the studios. I mention it only because it's obvious from owner feedback that this is an issue that can and is affecting sales.

Let me put it like this: Tikiman stated as a rationale for buying into Poly that he was confident, based on what he knows, that as his family grows, other options would be available at Poly for him. If, as it appears, that was essential in his decision making process, wouldn't it seem reasonable that it would be a key factor for others as well?

By not disclosing such plans so that buyers can make their decisions accordingly, DVD is undermining itself. I don't know why they do what they do. This doesn't make much sense to me though.

 

[skier_pete]

To the point of PVB sales, not having either option - plans for a W/D option short of a bungalow - is hurting sales I believe.

I do agree that not have 1-bedrooms/2-bedrooms will "hurt" sales to a degree. However, I don't think the W/D option is the big issue that would hurt sales...

I would also argue that it's too early to tell if sales are "hurting". It seems to me that the early data shows contracts are on-par with previous projects (BLT & VGF) which would indicate sales are NOT hurting, but I am not sure official data is out yet.

 

[gmi3804]

Okay, I'll be the first to admit it. I got into timeshares in part because of the master bedroom that my wife and I have to ourselves...with a door between us and the kids...a door that locks.

Oh, the humanity!

 

[florep1]

Just gave up our lake view studio May8-13 for a GV at OKW. I really wanted to try the Poly, but being that close to our dtes, the picture updates in other threads got me worried about the noise. There's just 2 of us, but we had expiring points that I knew we wouldn't have time to use due to my dh'a work schedule. I've always liked OKW but what the heck are we gonna do with a GV?

 

[nalajms]

Just gave up our lake view studio May8-13 for a GV at OKW. I really wanted to try the Poly, but being that close to our dtes, the picture updates in other threads got me worried about the noise. There's just 2 of us, but we had expiring points that I knew we wouldn't have time to use due to my dh'a work schedule. I've always liked OKW but what the heck are we gonna do with a GV?

That's just too funny with all the posts about staying in a studio, connecting studios, and is a 1bedroom worth it over a studio.

Maybe you should have booked the bungalow

 

[skier_pete]

I've always liked OKW but what the heck are we gonna do with a GV?

Invite friends! You can't tell me you don't know anyone that would take a "free" trip to Disney?

 

[florep1]

That's just too funny with all the posts about staying in a studio, connecting studios, and is a 1bedroom worth it over a studio.

Maybe you should have booked the bungalow

I wish we could afford the bungalow. It's way out of our point range. LOL! Working on inviting friends now. It's harder than I thought. Since we're not bringing kids, I told them they couldn't either.

 

[RweTHEREyet]

Yes, the lack of a washer/dryer is a problem. It's such a problem that I had already decided to not tell my wife about this "feature" until after we arrived. She won't be happy.

I don't yet know if studio residents will have easily accessible laundry access. I would hope this is going to be the case. With five plus kids, we use the laundry a lot.

I am not so sure I would hold back the fact that there is no laundry room in the villa from your wife, unless you are the one that is lugging all the laundry to and from the laundry room. As a wife, I would want to know that, even with just the two of us.

 

[CarolMN]

I am not so sure I would hold back the fact that there is no laundry room in the villa from your wife, unless you are the one that is lugging all the laundry to and from the laundry room. As a wife, I would want to know that, even with just the two of us.

I absolutely agree!! I pack differently if we will have an in-room washer & dryer. Best to tell her now.