Putting stock in crowd calendar changes?

[ewasilau]

So I got an alert the other day from TP that all of the crowd predictions from all 6 days of our May trip (May 9-14) have changed. All the overall 4s and 5s went to 6s, and the 6s to 7s. (Individual parks changed too, mostly MK and AK, usually up by 1.) This was without any changes to park hours. Anyone have ideas as to why early May - before Toy Story Land opens and when schools are still in session - would suddenly be perceived to be more crowded? How much stock do you give these changes?

We have been debating moving the trip to early-ish August anyway - where crowds are supposed to be about level 8, some 7s. I realize that there are no uncrowded times at WDW, but I was thinking that one advantage of going in May would be that it would be less busy than August...

 

[icesk8abc]

Each crowd level on touring plan represents about a 5 minute average wait time until you get to the 8s+. I would stick to May if only because of the weather. I've been at both times and while neither has cool weather, it is much more tolerable in May. We were there last year at the beginning of May. While it wasn't beginning of September empty or even end of January slow, it was perfectly manageable. We have tiny ones and don't do long waits. The only things we missed were due to toddlers being just done, not due to crowds.

 

[Louie7080]

Maybe Touring Plans has concluded that Disney will be reducing capacity that much? If it truely is an increase in attendance I would think they would eventually extend hours but that is totally a guess on my part. A level 6 isn't too bad to contend with and May does seem better than August weather wise.

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

They are just tweaking their levels. The old 7 is a 6 and the old 6 is now a 5 and so on. If they didn't re assign the numbers they would have to add numbers ie: 11,12 etc. I do believe unless we have another recession, there will never be slow days ever again at WDW.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

My crowd levels for the last week of April all went up too. I was wondering if this was due to a predicted increase in actual crowds or just a predicted increase in wait times. Remember that TP does not actually measure crowd levels per se, they measure wait times and call that "crowd level." So what we may be seeing is TP predicting that Disney will be decreasing their ride staffing again like they did over the slower winter months.

Or maybe crowds really are predicted to go up. During my week, we've got the half marathon, Party for the Planet, and at least 2 cheer camps. I guess you never know.

 

[georgina]

I put zero stock in crowd calendars and certainly wouldn't change my trip dates because of them.

 

[supamaki]

They are just tweaking their levels. The old 7 is a 6 and the old 6 is now a 5 and so on. If they didn't re assign the numbers they would have to add numbers ie: 11,12 etc. I do believe unless we have another recession, there will never be slow days ever again at WDW.

Just to piggy back on this, here's they're official reason for the crowd number change.

Before this update, a wait time of 68 minutes at Space Mountain was a crowd level of 5. With this new update, the same 68-minute wait will be a crowd level of 4. This means that for some days, the projected crowd level for that day has gone down even though the projected wait time for the attractions has stayed the same.
Without these regular crowd calendar adjustments, we would see many fewer days with crowd levels 1, 2, and 3, and many more days with 9s and 10s.

A change in the ranges may cause a change in Crowd Level, but it is more common for a Crowd Level change to be caused by an update in park operations, like hard-ticket events and park hours.

 

[CeruleanMoon]

Just to piggy back on this, here's they're official reason for the crowd number change.

Before this update, a wait time of 68 minutes at Space Mountain was a crowd level of 5. With this new update, the same 68-minute wait will be a crowd level of 4. This means that for some days, the projected crowd level for that day has gone down even though the projected wait time for the attractions has stayed the same.
Without these regular crowd calendar adjustments, we would see many fewer days with crowd levels 1, 2, and 3, and many more days with 9s and 10s.

A change in the ranges may cause a change in Crowd Level, but it is more common for a Crowd Level change to be caused by an update in park operations, like hard-ticket events and park hours.

Thanks for the explanation! I found their blog post about this. Always good to know.

 

[WDW_Ding]

Just to piggy back on this, here's they're official reason for the crowd number change.

Before this update, a wait time of 68 minutes at Space Mountain was a crowd level of 5. With this new update, the same 68-minute wait will be a crowd level of 4. This means that for some days, the projected crowd level for that day has gone down even though the projected wait time for the attractions has stayed the same.
Without these regular crowd calendar adjustments, we would see many fewer days with crowd levels 1, 2, and 3, and many more days with 9s and 10s.

A change in the ranges may cause a change in Crowd Level, but it is more common for a Crowd Level change to be caused by an update in park operations, like hard-ticket events and park hours.

In other words, average stand-by wait times have gotten so much longer that TP had to adjust their system to reflect those increases?

 

[jalapeno_pretzel]

We were there similar dates in May last year, and the same thing happened that the projected crowd level increased a couple of times during the few weeks ahead of the trip. It did feel more crowded than our previous 2 trips in May, and it was very hot too. I would still take May over August any day though!

 

[Day-Day]

Even if wait times ended up being exactly the same which can be due to staffing levels, the parks, shops, restaurants, resorts and traffic will be less crowded if you stick with May 9-14.

 

[Klayfish]

I put zero stock in crowd calendars and certainly wouldn't change my trip dates because of them.

Exactly. They're just guessing.

 

[GaSleepingBeautyFan]

Also Mother's Day weekend falls during that timeframe right? It was busier when I went the week of Mother's Day weekend in 2017.

I really like going in May. The weather is nice.

 

[supamaki]

In other words, average stand-by wait times have gotten so much longer that TP had to adjust their system to reflect those increases?

Exactly

 

[Delilah1310]

Due to our schedules, we always go during busy times - 7-10 on the crowd calendars during summer, Thanksgiving or Christmas.
In my experience, having a good plan, getting key FPs and being there at rope drop are 100X more vital than the crowd calendar numbers.

We still manage to do everything we want and have always had a fabulous time - I'm sure you will too!

 

[ShelbyK]

I will be in WDW from April 30th until May 9th and I was shocked to see the crowd levels increase..especially since I have had the easiest time with Fastpasses (FOP on 60+2 for 9 people) and "hard to get" ADRs.. I was able to get a Garden Grill breakfast and an Ohana dinner just last week for my days (for 6 people).. my guess is they think Disney is going to reduce capacity again

 

[WDW_Ding]

Exactly. They're just guessing.

I think Touring Plans would beg to differ.

Guessing would mean basing an opinion on no or very little evidence.

Touring Plans uses a ton of good, well sourced data.

https://www.popsci.com/touring-plan-app-disney-lines

 

[Louie7080]

They are just tweaking their levels. The old 7 is a 6 and the old 6 is now a 5 and so on. If they didn't re assign the numbers they would have to add numbers ie: 11,12 etc. I do believe unless we have another recession, there will never be slow days ever again at WDW.

So not only is the stated crowd level going up from a 5 to a 6 but there is an adjustment/tweek to what every level means? Wouldn't that mean that that level 6 predicted for May would have previously been a level 7? So basically the crowd level went up by 2 without the adjustment. I am not questioning the need for TP to do an adjustment, just trying to point out that if there has been an adjustment, that the crowd levels are going up by 2 if you use previous standards.

 

[ewasilau]

Thanks for all of the interesting insights. I'm thinking that if TP adjusted our week then that they really need to adjust all weeks, based on what everyone is saying. They may need to change the scale to go up to 12! Regardless, we will definitely rely heavily on RD and FPs whenever we go. And it has to be better than spring break. I've been stalking the wait times and wow! We are going to have a blast whenever we go, but I don't think we could ever do Easter week. Crazy town!

 

[bavarian princess]

So not only is the stated crowd level going up from a 5 to a 6 but there is an adjustment/tweek to what every level means? Wouldn't that mean that that level 6 predicted for May would have previously been a level 7? So basically the crowd level went up by 2 without the adjustment. I am not questioning the need for TP to do an adjustment, just trying to point out that if there has been an adjustment, that the crowd levels are going up by 2 if you use previous standards.

Exactly what I thought!