Pros & Cons of waiting for lower air fares

[JoannaOhio]

When I found out about five weeks ago that our December vacation to Florida was a "go", I checked for nonstop flights from Dayton to Orlando, and the lowest price was $207 on Delta. I watched over the next few weeks as it bounced around between $217 and $227. My daughter and her fiancee and my granddaughter will be taking the auto train from DC to Orlando, and I'll be flying down to meet them, so it took us some time to figure out the best flight times in order to coordinate with their train schedule.

Last Thursday night my daughter and I made our decision, and I went to Delta to book my flights. In the time that we were on the phone, the fare went from $217 to $227 - (at about 3am Friday morning). I waited through the weekend, hoping the fare would drop back to $217 (or lower) today - a pattern that had been noted by someone else on this board. Well, it's still sitting at $227 this afternoon.

Unfortunately, none of the really cheap airlines offer nonstop flights between Dayton and Orlando - and most aren't offering discounted tickets for December yet. Since I'll be the only one flying, it wouldn't pay for me to fly out of another city - partly because this would involve a significant inconvenience to whoever provides transportation for me to and from the airport here at home.

I decided to stop worrying over $10 or $20, and to not risk the flights with the "perfect" arrival and departure times being gone if the fares go down. These flights are on 50-seat planes, so there's a danger in waiting too long to book. So - I bit the bullet and booked my flights this afternoon.

If the price goes down between now and December, I can try to get a credit voucher on a future flight. Even if I am unable to use it within the year allowed, and I wind up having paid $227 to get to Florida and back for the last two weeks in December, I figure I can make up the cost difference in other ways. For me, the peace of mind of having the flight times that will work out best with my daughter is worth those extra dollars. This way I'll be arriving at the airport a few hours after they get there by train, and a couple hours before we'll be able to check into the private villa we're renting off site. That should give us time to go grocery shopping.

When I fly home on the afternoon of New Year's Day, I'll be able to help my daughter get everything out of the villa and into the car in the morning, ready to go on the auto train, and they'll be able to drop me at the airport on their way to the train station. (Conveniently, the airport is about half way in between the train station and our villa, so there won't be any out-of-the-way trips on arrival or departure.)

I am on a fixed limited income, so every dollar does count, but there are times when convenience for everyone involved is more important than the money. Just my opinion, but I thought it might help to put a different perspective on things for others who may find themselves in a similar position. It's hard to read posts from people who get super low fares from other cities, and wonder if I should have waited. On the other hand, it's possible that air fares could go through the roof if fuel prices keep increasing. Sometimes you just have to take a chance. I made my decision and I'm ready to live with the consequences. Now I can settle back and really look forward to a fantastic family Christmas vacation in Florida.

 

[safetymom]

You have a great attitude!!!!! Thanks for posting.

 

[JoannaOhio]

The price hasn't changed from the $227 I booked two days ago. However, just since yesterday, there are now only 17 seats left (on the 50-seat plane) for my New Year's Day return flight. Like I said in my original post, I decided not to risk losing out on getting seats on my vastly preferred flights. I won't be bummed at all - even if the price goes down later.

 

[janets]

We live in NW New Jersey and usually fly out of Newark. Unfortunately, the fares for our trip (11/5-11/12) are prohibitively expensive and w/ 4 of us travelling, I can't justify the cost. So I decided to look into LaGuardia in NYC. The fares there started out $60 cheaper each way and are currently almost $110 cheaper each way per person (LGA is $59/one way, EWR is $164/one way).

Now, I've been watching the fares from LGA for about a week now, thinking that I should buy the tickets and be sure of getting on the plane. The problem was that the outgoing flight for $59 left NYC at about 2:30, arriving in Orlando near 5:20 or so. Not terrible, but I'm flying with a 7.5 yo and a 3 yo and when you factor in luggage retrieval, car rental pickup and drive to our condo, it gets late pretty fast. The 10:20 AM flight was $79 and I didn't want to pay an add'l $80 for all of us. Today, I decide I'm going to book and the 10:20 flight is down to $69. So I decided it was a good $40 investment and booked it. We'll arrive around 1:10 in the afternoon and have the rest of the day to get our things into the rental condo and get what we need (perhaps even get down to DTD for a bit). Coming back we'll leave at 11:03 and arrive in NYC around 1:30, giving us plenty of time to get our car and head home (about 1 hr drive) and have the afternoon to unwind.

I think you have a great attitude about the $20 or so that this is costing you. You get there at an optimal time, and leave at an optimal time. With a small plane you don't always have the luxury of waiting.

Oh, and btw, the outbound flight only had about 15 seats on it when I booked it just now. My youngest and I will have to separate from my dh and other son, but I'm hoping when we check in, the gate attendant can move us so at least we're all together.

Have a wonderful December trip!

 

[JoannaOhio]

We'll arrive around 1:10 in the afternoon and have the rest of the day to get our things into the rental condo and get what we need (perhaps even get down to DTD for a bit)... I think you have a great attitude about the $20 or so that this is costing you. You get there at an optimal time, and leave at an optimal time. With a small plane you don't always have the luxury of waiting.... Have a wonderful December trip!

I think you made a great decision! That extra four hours will give you enough time on your arrival day that I bet it will FEEL like you've been there a whole first day when you wake up the next morning. You're another one with a great attitude, and I hope you and your family have a wonderful vacation!

 

[JoannaOhio]

The fare has gone up by $10, and then down again, but the major thing that makes me happy is when I check the number of available seats for my return flight on New Year's Day. I think there are now only 7 seats left - on a 50-seat plane that isn't scheduled to leave the ground for more than 9 months! Heck, if this keeps up, I may check the alternative flights in case they need volunteers to be bumped to a later flight. (For remuneration of a free roundtrip ticket, of course.) I'll have only carry-on luggage, so even if I have to change planes somewhere, I won't have to worry about it getting lost.

Hmmm. I wonder if they ever switch to a larger plane if they find they can sell all the seats? I'll just keep watching.....

 

[safetymom]

If the plane sells out months ahead of time they may use a larger plane. Just keep watching the flight. Also realize on some planes they block out seats only to be assigned at the airport so it may look like the plane is full when it isn't.

 

[VickiVM]

I used to think that $1000 for the 5 of us was pretty good, then Southwest had a $59 one way promo that ran for like a week and I felt so "ripped off" because the promo was so short-lived and we couldn't fork out the money at that time. Well, we're back to $1000 (a few bucks less, actually) and I got my husband's ok to get the tickets because the flight choices and times were narrowing by the day. I'm actually pretty pleased with the fare seeing how gas prices are climbing so high, so quickly. Better than all that - we don't spend a day and a half both ways on the road!! We're probably breaking even considering the cost of gasoline and staying overnight somewhere on the way ther and back.

Also - If you can, book WED TO WED!!! It's not the 'traditional' vacation week, but it can sure save money of airfare. Both our bosses were ok with this.

 

[pumpkinboy]

IMO, $217 for a direct flight r-t to MCO at Xmas time is a very good deal. Also remember that the way Delts works (generally) is they sell the cheapest seats early on, and once the fares in that category are sold, the remaining seats cost more. At peak times I will try to book the cheapest seats as they are released (331 days ahead), and did so for Presidents' Day '06 last week; I got one-way tix for the 4 of us for $83 each ($330 for all 4) on a non-stop BOS-MCO. 20 mins after I bought (I bought right after midnight when the fares were released) the same flights were up to $183 one-way, and by morning they were up around $260. If I miss the cheap peak-day tix at the outset, then I watch like a hawk for a fare I can live with and jump on it, which is my general strategy for off-peak times.

But since you found a good fare for the perfect flight times, I think you did very well to book it now.

 

[DebbieB]

It's really a risky game. I got tickets on Air Tran last December (early) for $135 each. When I started looking for this coming May, I saw $150 and figured I would wait. It jumped up to $246! I was hoping Southwest's schedule announcement would bring it down but it didn't (SW starts at PIT on 5/4). Then on 2/28 it dropped down to $201 and I bought them, I couldn't stand watching anymore. It jumped back almost immediately to $246. Now it's over $600, I guess it's almost sold out. I flew them earlier this month, the planes were full. Southwest is now $258 but I don't like their flight times (MCO/PIT 11:35am).

 

[MagicKingdom05]

Here is a major con. I went ahead two weeks ago and purchased my Dec 30-Jan 8 Chi-Orl ticket through Spirit Airlines for $331 (Spirit Plus). When I went to check today, just to see what the price was, I was shocked to see it went from $331 to $610 ($279 difference).

 

[PatMcDuck]

From the NY/NJ area, we have been lucky for the last year or so. Newark seems stuck at $208/230 RT. But try JFK, Laguardia, or even Philly, and fares drop ALOT. I have booked %59 each way the last 3 trips out of JFK or Laguardia on Song. And this was NOT at 331 days, it was whenever I got around to trip planning. I booked a week ago for Sept 30 trip, and had a wide choice of flights at that price. I figure $59 each way is pretty much rock bottom! $135 RT total with taxes, direct flight! I "miss" Newark, but withthe difference in prices like this, "fuhgetabutit".

 

[pumpkinboy]

From the NY/NJ area, we have been lucky for the last year or so. Newark seems stuck at $208/230 RT. But try JFK, Laguardia, or even Philly, and fares drop ALOT. I have booked %59 each way the last 3 trips out of JFK or Laguardia on Song. And this was NOT at 331 days, it was whenever I got around to trip planning. I booked a week ago for Sept 30 trip, and had a wide choice of flights at that price. I figure $59 each way is pretty much rock bottom! $135 RT total with taxes, direct flight! I "miss" Newark, but withthe difference in prices like this, "fuhgetabutit".

Great price for your Sept 30 trip, but that can hardly compare to Christmas time, when the airlines all know they are going to sell all their tix, and thus have no reason to discount. As I noted, for off-peak times, there is no harm in waiting a few months. Mid-January for example is one of our favorite times to go to Florida since airfare and hotels are all pretty cheap; from Boston non-stop we can get down to around $160 r-t, including taxes. We are usually able to wait until October or November to book the tix; we don't wait much longer than that since we're picky about our flight times.

But for peak times, you realy have to get while the getting is good. Otherwise, your flights and times will skyrocket to very unpleasant prices. Not that I blame the airlines, since they are just trying to stay in business, and not sell the family silver too cheaply. As soon as we find a price for peak times we can live with, we buy it.

 

[funcinderella]

Pat McDuck

I too am in the same boat as you. Newark is only 20 minutes from us, but we just can't justify the higher expense. We're going Nov 5-13 and were able to get 135 and 155 rt from LGA on Song. You can't beat it! (only the first two of us got the cheaper rate.)

What's the deal with Newark being so expensive??

 

[Brian Noble]

EWR is a Continental hub. Since CO has so many departures, they are better able to establish the market.

 

[TammyC]

Joanna,

I think you got a decent price for a non-stop (and peace of mind). Last time I checked on a credit voucher with Delta they were charging a $50 change fee, so the fare had to drop more than $50 to be worthwhile.

FYI for future trips, I think either Airtran or ATA has non-stops from Dayton to Orlando - but they are early morning and late evening flights.

Tammy

 

[JoannaOhio]

Joanna,

I think you got a decent price for a non-stop (and peace of mind). Last time I checked on a credit voucher with Delta they were charging a $50 change fee, so the fare had to drop more than $50 to be worthwhile.

I wasn't thinking of changing my current reservation, but of getting a credit voucher to use on a future flight.

FYI for future trips, I think either Airtran or ATA has non-stops from Dayton to Orlando - but they are early morning and late evening flights.

Out of curiosity, I just checked. ATA doesn't list any flights out of Dayton. AirTran isn't offering flights in December yet, and the fare for a comparable two week period in November was about $200 more than what I paid for my Delta flight. Anyway, thanks for the suggestion. Checking on it made me even happier with the reservation I already have.

 

[PatMcDuck]

I know my Sept trip is at a slow time, but these $59 fares were also available for the summer, etc. Still cannot compare to the demand for holiday weeks of course. My point was just how much one can save looking at other airport options. I live in central NJ, and MANY people gasp at the idea of flying out of NYC. (it is 1/2 hour each way longer drive than Newark).

 

[the kabuki]

IMO, $217 for a direct flight r-t to MCO at Xmas time is a very good deal. Also remember that the way Delts works (generally) is they sell the cheapest seats early on, and once the fares in that category are sold, the remaining seats cost more. At peak times I will try to book the cheapest seats as they are released (331 days ahead), and did so for Presidents' Day '06 last week; I got one-way tix for the 4 of us for $83 each ($330 for all 4) on a non-stop BOS-MCO. 20 mins after I bought (I bought right after midnight when the fares were released) the same flights were up to $183 one-way, and by morning they were up around $260. If I miss the cheap peak-day tix at the outset, then I watch like a hawk for a fare I can live with and jump on it, which is my general strategy for off-peak times.

But since you found a good fare for the perfect flight times, I think you did very well to book it now.

So, is 331 days out the "magical' number to start looking for the best flights?

 

[pumpkinboy]

...My point was just how much one can save looking at other airport options. I live in central NJ, and MANY people gasp at the idea of flying out of NYC. (it is 1/2 hour each way longer drive than Newark).

It really is funny how ppl gasp when you use a different airport than they are used to. Here in the Boston area, folks are finally used to the idea that they can get a better deal going north to MHT or south to PVD, and still get a direct flight. Of course, we live all of 14 miles from BOS, so the idea of driving to the airport (unless we're being dropped off) is anathema to us; heck, we can take the subway if we don't have too much luggage.

But certainly, taking advantage of inefficiencies in the airlines' pricing systems can pay big dividends in terms of savings, absolutely.

So, is 331 days out the "magical' number to start looking for the best flights?

Short answer: yes, but only for the Legacy carriers. The older airlines (Delta, NWA, Continental, United, American) release the new fares 331 days before flight date. For Delta, and a couple others, the cheap fares are available early on, and get more expensive, generally, as time goes on. Others, including NWA, will often try to sell full fare first, then discount as the date gets closer. Since Delta and their Song subsidiary are great choices for us in Boston, I have become very familiar with their pricing and FF miles rules; 331 days works for us.

Just be aware that the newer carriers like JetBlue, AirTran and even seasoned veterans like SouthWest, release their fares for whole seasons all at once. Sometimes the legacy carriers match them or drop fares down a little when new fares are released at the discounters, but not always, and certainly not for peak times.