Prices Skyrocketting?

[SGMCO]

Petrol is the equivalent of $8.6 per US gallon in the UK.

Is that in $8.6 GBP or $8.5 USD?

 

[kimberh]

I am not buying anything new right now. I am saving. I am ridng the BLT resort out. If, it sells out, well, oh well, I guess I will wait for the next one. Or, get it on the resale market. I mean how long will it take for it to really sell out. All speculation and hype. SSR has been for sale for How Long??? AKV's has been for sale for How Long???? Just want to disclose that I bought into the hype on AKV's, am a founding member. Then prices went lower. So, if DVC does read these forums, they need to sharpen their pencils, give the best prices to start with.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I am not buying anything new right now. I am saving. I am ridng the BLT resort out. If, it sells out, well, oh well, I guess I will wait for the next one. Or, get it on the resale market. I mean how long will it take for it to really sell out. All speculation and hype. SSR has been for sale for How Long??? AKV's has been for sale for How Long???? Just want to disclose that I bought into the hype on AKV's, am a founding member. Then prices went lower. So, if DVC does read these forums, they need to sharpen their pencils, give the best prices to start with.

Smart thinkin on this one........

 

[Califgirl]

Personally, I think the new resorts should be at about the same base price $104 per point, but require more points per night per stay. In my opinion that keeps the playing field somewhat even. It will take quite awhile (in my opinion) for someone to give up their more expensive GCV or BLT points and stay somewhere else, but if everyone's points were the same relative price, those GCV owners may not feel so bad using their points in FLA at a DVC there. I can live with the point charts being higher, but I'll be ticked if the price per point goes up astronomically.

 

[Paging Tom Morrow]

While I expect a price increase at some point during the year, it won't be because of the new locations, rather it'll be a standard price increase.

That being said, I fully expect BLT and GCV to use more points for accomodations than the others.

 

[mrdiscranky]

If you calculate the number of points recently sold, DVC is bringing in about $100,000 weekly from just the people on these boards alone.

To put that in perspective, they sell about $7 million a week total. So we're a little less than 1.5% of sales. Not chump change, but not what's running the show.

 

[twinklebug]

To put that in perspective, they sell about $7 million a week total. So we're a little less than 1.5% of sales. Not chump change, but not what's running the show.

Not being argumentative, just would love to know where the numbers come from - is this in a DVC annual report or something I'm not privy to not being an owner *yet*?

 

[jana]

Mrdiscranky said

Anyway, expect prices for CRV and VGC to be noticably higher than current prices. But I don't see AKV and resale prices going up.

Following that argument OKW resales would be less than $50 per point ( which they are not) . Resales will be a % reflection of what the current price DVC is charging. If there is a sizable increase in the price from Disney there will be a sizable increase in the price of resales . As long as you can use the points of the older resorts at the new resorts the prices are linked. I'll accept that the Grand Californian points MAY be an exception to that as there will be a tiny supply of points at that resort,no viable DVC alternative and a huge demand of 140,000 owners of other resorts wanting to visit Disneyland occassionally .

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

In the 70s, prices tended to go up for everything. I fully expect DVC prices to eventually increase just to keep up with inflation.

HOWEVER, I'm not that worried about increases in the price of points at the new resorts. The real pinch will be maintenance fees.

I fully expect maintenance fees to rise 5%-8% for '09.
That is my speculation only.

Of course, it may not be that bad because most companies have resisted increasing pay so far. That will not continue. As Disney increases salaries for the employees at DVC resorts, the costs will be passed on through maintenance fees. Disney may absorb some of these costs, as high maintenance fees will surely deter new purchases as well.

 

[kimberh]

In the 70s, prices tended to go up for everything. I fully expect DVC prices to eventually increase just to keep up with inflation.

HOWEVER, I'm not that worried about increases in the price of points at the new resorts. The real pinch will be maintenance fees.

I fully expect maintenance fees to rise 5%-8% for '09.
That is my speculation only.

I sure hope not! If this should happen, I am afraid that many will be forced to sell. There are many families that are emotional buyers. This will be a deciding factor, with the family budget being hit so hard right now with gasoline and food prices.

 

[mrdiscranky]

Following that argument OKW resales would be less than $50 per point ( which they are not) . Resales will be a % reflection of what the current price DVC is charging. If there is a sizable increase in the price from Disney there will be a sizable increase in the price of resales .

The relationship linking resale and new sales prices has broken down over the past couple years. The price of new points is up, while resale prices have been flat to slightly down.

I agree that at some point, the gap between new and resale prices can't get too large. If Disney keeps raising the price of new points, the resale prices will eventually come along. But I don't see that happening in the next few years. Instead, I expect to see the same flat to slightly decreasing prices we've been seeing.

One of the things driving the growing gap is the later expiration years. With new resorts having 2060 expiry years, the 2042 resorts are going to be a harder resell.

PS - Link to article showing DVC sales to be about $375m/year, or a bit over $7m/week: http://dvcnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=399&Itemid=1

 

[snowbunny]

Disney is expecting a slow down. How can a family justify going to Disney when they can't afford to buy food or gas to get to work. The increased gas and airfare prices are bound to affect a families ability to vacation. The economy is one reason the Nov park hours for the MK were delayed being released. It's also the reason why DVC reduced the minimum point buy in to 100.

I totally agree. "Through the roof" is either wishful thinking or completely absurd, depending on your outlook. But it is not realistic in any way.

 

[DisFlan]

Someone help me here - I don't understand the numbers and I'm not a math wiz. Two or three years ago we were told there were "100,000" DVC members. This article says "120,000". Where does "$375 million" a year come from a 20,000 member increase over a couple of years? Let's say over two years - 20,000 contracts at (as an example) $20,000 each would be $400 million - for TWO years. Is the difference coming from what they make on financing contracts? Or is that included? Are they selling lots of $50,000 contracts? Or are the member numbers wrong? I don't see it.

A little help, please?

DisFlan

 

[tjkraz]

Someone help me here - I don't understand the numbers and I'm not a math wiz. Two or three years ago we were told there were "100,000" DVC members. This article says "120,000". Where does "$375 million" a year come from a 20,000 member increase over a couple of years? Let's say over two years - 20,000 contracts at (as an example) $20,000 each would be $400 million - for TWO years. Is the difference coming from what they make on financing contracts? Or is that included? Are they selling lots of $50,000 contracts? Or are the member numbers wrong? I don't see it.

A little help, please?

Add-on sales would be one missing component. When DVC sells and add-on, they generate revenue without adding additional members.

Member turnover may also play a role. If DVC ROFRs a contract and sells the points to a new member, they've generated revenue but again haven't added any additional members. The member whose contract was ROFRed is deducted from the roster while the member who bought the points is added. Net change in number of members is zero.

 

[DisFlan]

Thanks! I knew there was something I was missing.

DisFlan

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

I read the article as 120,000 new members for THIS year.

Was the article just listing total # of members - over all years.

I wonder how the more traditional timeshare companies continue to have more members than DVC. I know that more locations must have something to do with it.

 

[disneynutz]

I read the article as 120,000 new members for THIS year.

Was the article just listing total # of members - over all years.

I wonder how the more traditional timeshare companies continue to have more members than DVC. I know that more locations must have something to do with it.

The numbers must be cumulative. I don't think that Wyndham Vacation Ownership added 805,479 members in 2007.

 

[tjkraz]

I wonder how the more traditional timeshare companies continue to have more members than DVC. I know that more locations must have something to do with it.

That and the "lock-you-in-a-room-and-don't-let-you-leave-until-you-agree-to-buy" sales approach.

Those of us who are spoiled by DVC's low-key sales methods may be pretty disgusted by the tactics others use. But companies use those approaches because they work. Period.

 

[AKV707]

If a guide said so, it must be true! After all, they've got no reason to lie about such a thing, do they?

Anyway, expect prices for CRV and VGC to be noticably higher than current prices. But I don't see AKV and resale prices going up.

I agree. The economy should hold prices at the existing resorts close to where they are now. BLT and GCV will cost more, but how much more? If the economy was better, I think it would be quite a jump. But now.....?

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

That and the "lock-you-in-a-room-and-don't-let-you-leave-until-you-agree-to-buy" sales approach.

Those of us who are spoiled by DVC's low-key sales methods may be pretty disgusted by the tactics others use. But companies use those approaches because they work. Period.

I know.
It just amazes me that people STILL fall for that.

Its also the reason I have a knee jerk reaction to the word timeshare.
I told myself that I didn't buy into all of that...but seem to be more confused. Is DVC the only company that is ok? Is Marriott and Hilton OK? How about Bluegreen and Westgate? I've seen DISSERS suggest BG & WG, and was sure that these were the high pressure guys. There seems to be plusses and minuses to each company. Its much more gray than I would like.

We love going to WDW, and DVC is perfect for us. However, my extended family are not WDW lovers like we are. I would like to be able to intelligently talk about other timeshares, but don't know where to start. For now, I think I'll just say..."I've heard Marriott is pretty good." Unfortunately, they are not in Gulf Shores or in Gatlinburg. I don't know who the good guys are in these places, but I know the slick, high pressure guys are there, but don't know specifically which ones.

I'm not quite ready to join TUG. I just wish I had a guide with a continuum from good to bad, with a rating of 0 -10, with a category of (-1000) thrown in for good measure, with reasons why, especially the ones with the (-1000) listing. I'm also curious to know if DVC would be closer to 0 or 10, and why.