Predicting Late 2021

[finedice]

Hi All! I've been only moderately checking in - but checking in since just before Covid Yuck! We had our last trip in the last week of Feb 2020 - so yeah - just prior to closing...

Anyway, we have an upcoming family wedding on the mid- eastern Florida coast in late November and are weighing the merits of a stay and play at WDW for a week after the wedding weekend. This means we have to fly from northern New England to attend. Of course, what other excuse would a small family need to extend the trip with a week at WDW, when it just happens to align with work and school breaks?

Suffice to say that we are really torn on even trying to make this happen as we are definitely die-hards that have learned to love the entire resort and how to take our time enjoying it while hitting all of our favorites multiple times on every trip. We play early in the parks - maximizing the best times to hit attractions efficiently with minimal waits, as well as an understanding of when to say the wait is too long - and then opt to do something else more enjoyable than waiting in line for awhile. We have been learning and adjusting from the advice found here for 15 years now and feel we have become as expert as a family could be in planning and enjoying a Disney stay as anyone outside of Florida - or at least within reasonable driving distance.

The lack of FP+ is the biggest hurdle for us to get over as we consider a visit over Thanksgiving week. We are also foodies, so the full dining experience potentially NOT being unavailable is huge too. We know which restaurants we love and which ones we will settle for. We also know which food experiences to avoid (but I won't say which of your favorites we would avoid - cuz, well, you wouldn't agree ).

AM EMH was always part of our strategy - using it, coupled with FP+ to our advantage to hit all of the major headliners with nearly no wait, and then hopping to a more leisurely park after lunch or a swim or whatever offered relaxation and entertainment at the moment was the way we avoided the stress so many experience.

While we enjoyed a few shows during the day to break things up, there are some we would never miss if they were replaced or weren't happening. The night stuff is another story - those will be missed.

We loved finding Meet & Greets we hadn't experienced before (which were the rare and newer ones), but wouldn't wait in line for those we had experienced - unless there was virtually no line - which always involved luck in just passing by.

We are bummed about the slow progress of construction on attractions we had hoped would be ready for this time. GoG and Tron, as well as EPCOT in general are downers - understandable, but still a bummer.

T-giving week is also pretty darned busy, so that adds to our trepidation.

We are from a "lower covid" state as well. We have worn our masks for a year (along with virtually everyone else in our region) - Wearing them won't deter us, but crowds without them might- of course, that all depends on vaccination progress between now and then as well.

So why SHOULD we book a trip? - What parts of a current era WDW stay will make it worth it to an experienced and veteran family that has to spend a lot on airfare, hotel and tickets? What are your best guesses of what might change between now and then? Convince us!

 

[JakeAZ]

Nobody can convince you to go. All your points are valid.

We have an April 2020 trip rescheduled for Thanksgiving week. We know it's going to be crowded, but it's a 12 person trip and nobody is getting younger! Plus, we have airfare / DVC rental credits that will be expiring. We are going.

Will we be disappointed if it's the same in November as it is now? Yep, but everyone understands that may be the case and understands the other circumstances.

Here's my guesses on things that will change by October 1:

Harmonious debut
More restaurants open
Some type of 50th MK Nighttime parade (possibly paint the night from DL)
Better hours
More shows back

Here's my hopeful list:
Masks for indoors only
Some type of PM extra hours for resort guests
Meet and Greets
Some form of FP back

Of course none of these things may happen. We'll still go. The trip has been in the "planning" stages for too long. Time to go and move on.

That being said, if I was looking to plan a trip right now, for just my family of 4, with no credits that needed to be used, I would wait on WDW until 2022+.

 

[mitsukoshi samurai]

Full operations

 

[Imamom2]

I think we will be wearing masks in November but I do expect to see some new rides open, fireworks, and increased hours. I don’t expect capacity to be above 50% and I think park reservations will stay in place til the end of the year. Of course I am hoping we see MVMCP because it is a hard ticket event that limits crowds.

 

[JakeAZ]

I think we will be wearing masks in November but I do expect to see some new rides open, fireworks, and increased hours. I don’t expect capacity to be above 50% and I think park reservations will stay in place til the end of the year. Of course I am hoping we see MVMCP because it is a hard ticket event that limits crowds.

If they bump capacity up and don't bring back some form of FP, there is going to be a lot of disappointment. Especially as the crowds descend on WDW from Oct 1 and on.

We have to remember 100% capacity is never (well rarely) hit. 50% of that number is still very crowded. They need to be able to put the crowds somewhere. Somewhere other than 90min+ line after line after line....

I'm looking at DVC availability the week of Thanksgiving and it's basically non-existent. Quite a bit of hotels don't have rooms available then either. D knows the crowds are coming. I hope they have a plan.

 

[Imamom2]

If they bump capacity up and don't bring back some form of FP, there is going to be a lot of disappointment. Especially as the crowds descend on WDW from Oct 1 and on.

We have to remember 100% capacity is never (well rarely) hit. 50% of that number is still very crowded. They need to be able to put the crowds somewhere. Somewhere other than 90min+ line after line after line....

I'm looking at DVC availability the week of Thanksgiving and it's basically non-existent. Quite a bit of hotels don't have rooms available then either. D knows the crowds are coming. I hope they have a plan.

We rented our DVC in December at exactly 11 mon. and BCV and BWV were gone. We took BLT because it was the only park entry resort available. Saratoga and Key West were available then but I heard they were gone now. I think we may see more rooms opening soon. Good luck!

 

[JakeAZ]

We rented our DVC in December at exactly 11 mon. and BCV and BWV were gone. We took BLT because it was the only park entry resort available. Saratoga and Key West were available then but I heard they were gone now. I think we may see more rooms opening soon. Good luck!

Same. We rented BLT on the 11 month mark exactly. With 12 of us, we wanted a LV GV and got it. We are very excited about getting that. Now we just hope some other things fall into place.

I was mentioning that non-availability to show that WDW has to know people are coming based on the rooms currently booked.

 

[jimmymc]

All the attractions are still operating, and the lack of FP+ has actually made lines go faster. It's difficult to understate how much trying to merge FP and normal lines slows down the normal operations. As someone who prefers the old Fastpass system or something like Universal's Express Pass over FP+, this is actually a plus for me.

Some dining is closed, but there is more than enough that I was able to make a TS reservation at a new restaurant I wanted to visit once a day for 6 days. Take it as a chance to try something new.

I was never a huge character person, so that part doesn't apply to me as much, but I think the Calvacades are a ton of fun.

 

[pants]

Hoping that 50th anniversary celebration surprise announcement is no masks. Probably wishful thinking, but hoping for wide availability of the vaccine by mid-summer giving everyone a chance to get it who wants it. More reasonable guess is resumption of ticketed after hours parties, masks still required, tiered (paid) fastpass. Masks will more likely be dropped in 2022 or when kids have opportunity for vaccination.

 

[jimmymc]

Hoping that 50th anniversary celebration surprise announcement is no masks. Probably wishful thinking, but hoping for wide availability of the vaccine by mid-summer giving everyone a chance to get it who wants it. More reasonable guess is resumption of ticketed after hours parties, masks still required, tiered (paid) fastpass. Masks will more likely be dropped in 2022 or when kids have opportunity for vaccination.

I think masks were confirmed until 2022 during a recent earnings call. No word yet on the parties for this fall.

 

[pants]

I think masks were confirmed until 2022 during a recent earnings call. No word yet on the parties for this fall.

Yes, I am probably putting too much into his comment on what Dr. Fauci said about vaccine availability, if vaccines widely available by mid-spring (not summer like my comment), that could be a "game-changer." All depends on if people will get the shot though.

“We have no doubt, that when we reopen up in parks that were closed, or increase the capacity, that we’ll have some level of social distancing and mask-wearing for the remainder of this year,” Chapek said Thursday during Disney’s conference call to discuss earnings for its first fiscal quarter of 2021. “That’s our expectation. But, I believe that Dr. Fauci said earlier today that he hopes that there is vaccines for everyone who wants them by April this year. If that happens, that is a game-changer.”

 

[jimmymc]

Yes, I am probably putting too much into his comment on what Dr. Fauci said about vaccine availability, if vaccines widely available by mid-spring (not summer like my comment), that could be a "game-changer." All depends on if people will get the shot though.

“We have no doubt, that when we reopen up in parks that were closed, or increase the capacity, that we’ll have some level of social distancing and mask-wearing for the remainder of this year,” Chapek said Thursday during Disney’s conference call to discuss earnings for its first fiscal quarter of 2021. “That’s our expectation. But, I believe that Dr. Fauci said earlier today that he hopes that there is vaccines for everyone who wants them by April this year. If that happens, that is a game-changer.”

It could always change based on vaccine distribution. If cases plumit between now and summer, then the mask policy can easily be changed.

 

[Gentry2004]

If they bump capacity up and don't bring back some form of FP, there is going to be a lot of disappointment. Especially as the crowds descend on WDW from Oct 1 and on.

We have to remember 100% capacity is never (well rarely) hit. 50% of that number is still very crowded. They need to be able to put the crowds somewhere. Somewhere other than 90min+ line after line after line....

I'm looking at DVC availability the week of Thanksgiving and it's basically non-existent. Quite a bit of hotels don't have rooms available then either. D knows the crowds are coming. I hope they have a plan.

THIS. It seems like they have already hit the maxiumum number of people that can be in the park without some form of FP+. In fact, if we cancel our spring break trip, wait times will be the primary reason.

 

[DisneyDadWV]

We have a trip planned for Dec 11-19. I'm hoping by then that if masks are required it will only be for indoors. There is no way Disney is just going to "flip the switch" and go from the requirements now to no masks or social distancing on January 1st. Chapek saying masks and social distancing "at some level" will be around through this year gives me some hope in feeling this way. We were there in October 2020 and handled the masks just fine despite it being unseasonably warm. Also, hoping for MVMCP and fireworks, but that might be more than I can ask for.

The Christmas season, along with the 50th anniversary, seems like the perfect time for Disney to try and make a dent in the huge losses they have suffered in the theme parks. Fingers crossed!

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

I think masks were confirmed until 2022 during a recent earnings call. No word yet on the parties for this fall.

Yeah, I read that they were mentioning masks until 2022. I'm beginning to accept that my husband and I may have to take turns taking our 5 year old to the parks while the other parent watches our 2 year old (who won't wear a mask more than 5 minutes) so we don't waste our tickets that expire in September.

When it comes to mask rules, after-hour parties, and the return of shows, etc., at this point it is just easier to plan for disappointment and then be happily surprised if circumstances do change.

 

[Dakota731]

It could always change based on vaccine distribution. If cases plumit between now and summer, then the mask policy can easily be changed.

Cases have already plummeted 69% the past six weeks. So I’m hoping masks will be gone before 2022!
“In a White House briefing Friday, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said the US continues to see a five-week decline, with the seven-day average of cases declining 69% since peaking on January 11”

 

[SaintsManiac]

I posted this on another of these types of threads, but maybe you'll find it valuable, too!

We are booked Thanksgiving week this year. This is our favorite week to go and we are most comfortable with it because we know what we are getting into. We mapped out what we want to do, what we still haven't done (Rise, MMRR, Falcon, etc), picked some dining choices from what is open NOW. We discussed the mask wearing and stocked up on comfortable, disposable masks. We bumped down from Beach Club to Swan to stay in the area we love at half the price. We already have old tickets that have never been used, so we don't have that expense. We are driving to avoid WDW transportation.

In other words, we are planning this trip as if everything is the same then as it is NOW. Hopefully more restaurants open and some M&Gs return and the mask rules are relaxed, but we are prepared for that not to be the case. I think it's the only way to go into it.

My husband needed convincing for this trip, but our last one was Thanksgiving 2019 and after the past 6 months that we've had he is very ready to go now. We don't care about lines, because we always travel during holidays. We skip a lot of rides now and mainly just do our favorites. We just want to be there. We always skip a ton of World Showcase in favor of rides, so we plan to explore there, too. I'm sure that Remy will be open by then, too.

I really want fireworks to return and thought this would be a deal breaker for us, but we don't even care about that anymore. 2 years without a vacation will do that I guess.

 

[marikujawa]

Yeah, I read that they were mentioning masks until 2022. I'm beginning to accept that my husband and I may have to take turns taking our 5 year old to the parks while the other parent watches our 2 year old (who won't wear a mask more than 5 minutes) so we don't waste our tickets that expire in September.

When it comes to mask rules, after-hour parties, and the return of shows, etc., at this point it is just easier to plan for disappointment and then be happily surprised if circumstances do change.

They mentioned the possibility of masks until 2022, but then said that if the vaccine reduced COVID in the summer months as much as some anticipate, that would be a "game-changer." People somehow missed that part of the statement. No one can say just yet - it will depend on the effectiveness of the vaccine.

 

[cmarsh31]

Having just experienced Feb break/President'sDay/MardiGras... I can tell you that, for us, masks weren't a big deal, dining was fine (we really LOVE the new take-out options), and the crowds were lower than our usual Feb Break & Thanksgiving trips... BUT, as experienced FP users, party-goers, and lovers of After Hours events to maximize rides with limited waits, the ride and line situation was terrible. I'm sure the lines were significantly shorter than they normally are at this time, but we would never, ever wait in them. Why wait in a 45 minute Small World line when with some refreshing on the app you can score FPs immediately or for after dinner? Same with Buzz and Pirates. Soo... we skipped a lot of favorites (Buzz & Pirates, for example) because we couldn't deal with the thought of 45-60 minutes in line for something we've never waited for. Kids didn't do Slinky Dog or Splash for the same reason. Yes, we rode all the Star Wars rides, and Mickey's Railway, but we actually waited 70+ minutes in line for FOP. We've ridden it every single trip, sometimes more than once, never waiting more than a FP time. So, be prepared. We're not used to it, and basically bailed on the parks to enjoy our resort most days. Just not our thing. It was a wonderful trip. It was warm and sunny. We really needed the trip and I'm so glad we went - but don't expect to be able to accomplish what you normally do, just because crowds are lower than normal.

 

[DisneyStarWisher]

My DH and I are contemplating moving our November 2021 trip to November 2022. We already cancelled our November 2020 trip. We wear masks everywhere we go, but we aren't excited about wearing masks on our vacation. But I think the deal-breaker for me is the park reservations that will be happening through the rest of this year. We had just bought our first APs right before Disney shut down last year. We had been dreaming for years of how we wanted to do Disney after we both retired. We wanted to have a more spontaneous experience (i.e.--waking up and deciding what park we wanted to go to that day). Having to have park reservations deters from that spontaneity. We also want a full experience when we use those APs. We are willing to wait until that can happen.