Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[_auroraborealis_]

The lock-offs would definitely be gone, though.

 

[chalee94]

What about 2 bedroom lake view at the 6 months booking window?

i would be willing to bet against you for virtually any month of the year. VGF is just too popular and too small.

 

[drusba]

What about [a VGF] 2 bedroom lake view at the 6 months booking window?

If you mean 7 months out when owners of resorts other than VGF can start booking VGF, then between mid-Jan and late Sep, the VGF dedicated 2BRs, both standard and lake view, are invariably open (in fact they are usually open even at 6 months out during that low to moderate DVC demand period). However, during DVC's high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan, they are often gone at 7 months out although you can sometimes get lucky and find 3 or 4 days in a row.

 

[skier_pete]

Want to make a note here about Poly studios and potential future availability. I realize Poly has more declared rooms than are sold - but I just noticed this.

We are 7 months and about 10 days out from the Princess 1/2 marathon.

Most DVC Studios are fully booked for that weekend at every resort
Exceptions are SSR, OKW, some AKV (Kinani and Jambo - Savannah only) and Poly - both Standard and Lake view are available the entire weekend. If it doesn't book up before 7-month mark that will be pretty amazing.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Want to make a note here about Poly studios and potential future availability. I realize Poly has more declared rooms than are sold - but I just noticed this.

We are 7 months and about 10 days out from the Princess 1/2 marathon.

Most DVC Studios are fully booked for that weekend at every resort
Exceptions are SSR, OKW, some AKV (Kinani and Jambo - Savannah only) and Poly - both Standard and Lake view are available the entire weekend. If it doesn't book up before 7-month mark that will be pretty amazing.

Well, they just declared some units, so that's definitely a factor.

 

[The Lost Disney Princess]

i would be willing to bet against you for virtually any month of the year. VGF is just too popular and too small.

As an update- just booked VGF 2 bedroom at 6 months booking window.

 

[The Lost Disney Princess]

If you mean 7 months out when owners of resorts other than VGF can start booking VGF, then between mid-Jan and late Sep, the VGF dedicated 2BRs, both standard and lake view, are invariably open (in fact they are usually open even at 6 months out during that low to moderate DVC demand period). However, during DVC's high demand season from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan, they are often gone at 7 months out although you can sometimes get lucky and find 3 or 4 days in a row.

I was able to get late January.

 

[drusba]

Want to make a note here about Poly studios and potential future availability. I realize Poly has more declared rooms than are sold - but I just noticed this.

We are 7 months and about 10 days out from the Princess 1/2 marathon.

Most DVC Studios are fully booked for that weekend at every resort
Exceptions are SSR, OKW, some AKV (Kinani and Jambo - Savannah only) and Poly - both Standard and Lake view are available the entire weekend. If it doesn't book up before 7-month mark that will be pretty amazing.

During DVC's low to moderate demand season that runs from the Monday after marathon weekend in Jan to late Sep, it is the Princess half marathon weekend that has been the exception with high demand for it but Poly was open this year at 7 months out for it. This year there was a new event that Disney added which matched the Princess half marathon weekend for DVC demand that made it difficult to get any near park resort at 7 months out, to-wit: the Star Wars Dark Side race weekend in mid-April. Nevertheless Poly did remain open at 7 months out for it.

It appears that either DVC has a large number of members that like to run marathons or half marathons, or, more possibly, a large number of members who like to watch people suffer running marathons and half marathons, or perhaps a bit of both.

 

[Madame]

During DVC's low to moderate demand season that runs from the Monday after marathon weekend in Jan to late Sep, it is the Princess half marathon weekend that has been the exception with high demand for it but Poly was open this year at 7 months out for it. This year there was a new event that Disney added which matched the Princess half marathon weekend for DVC demand that made it difficult to get any near park resort at 7 months out, to-wit: the Star Wars Dark Side race weekend in mid-April. Nevertheless Poly did remain open at 7 months out for it.

It appears that either DVC has a large number of members that like to run marathons or half marathons, or, more possibly, a large number of members who like to watch people suffer running marathons and half marathons, or perhaps a bit of both.

There are many renters that add to the numbers specifically during RunDisney events, at least that's the impression I'm getting from the RDisney board here & the ones I participate in on FB.

 

[skier_pete]

Yes - in general the RunDisney events sell out many resorts before 7-months. (I think I mentioned this in my original post.) I suspect it is a combination of members and renters that lead to this.

 

[Brian Noble]

The runners are also people who definitely plan ahead---these races can sell out early. The 10K standalone and the 1/2+10K challenge are both already fully booked, and still a bit outside the 7-month window. So, if you are thinking about running one of these, you are not waiting around.

 

[skier_pete]

The runners are also people who definitely plan ahead---these races can sell out early. The 10K standalone and the 1/2+10K challenge are both already fully booked, and still a bit outside the 7-month window. So, if you are thinking about running one of these, you are not waiting around.

Unfortunately for those of us that live in the Northeast and AREN'T runners - that week also corresponds with winter break for a lot of school systems. While we won't be going in 2017 to use our points, we likely will be at this time next year - so I have been watching that week very closely. It's interesting that the early part of the week - which includes the presidents day long weekend, remains pretty viably available at 7 months, while the END of the week (for the race) is fairly filled up before 7-months. So clearly the holiday week does NOT trigger DVC rentals as much as the runner weekend does, but there is a likelyhood that there is some overlap of people coming from the northeast that week which ensures the weekend is a sellout.

 

[SuperRob]

The runners are also people who definitely plan ahead---these races can sell out early. The 10K standalone and the 1/2+10K challenge are both already fully booked, and still a bit outside the 7-month window. So, if you are thinking about running one of these, you are not waiting around.

I can attest to this ... I've booked our room at VGF for the April Half-Marathon and registration for DVC members isn't open for another two weeks. Didn't want to wait and risk not getting it. Home Resort Priority is very nice.

 

[Dreamin192]

As an update- just booked VGF 2 bedroom at 6 months booking window.

Yesterday as I was stalking availability for a January 2017 trip I lucked out and a whole week opened in a Lake View studio at VGF. I thought I was dreaming and figured as soon as I cancelled my existing reservation to free up the points it would be gone. Thankfully I was able to snag it. I know it's hard to get in but apparently it does happen sometimes. I'm now 183 days out.

 

[CarolMN]

Yesterday as I was stalking availability for a January 2017 trip I lucked out and a whole week opened in a Lake View studio at VGF. I thought I was dreaming and figured as soon as I cancelled my existing reservation to free up the points it would be gone. Thankfully I was able to snag it. I know it's hard to get in but apparently it does happen sometimes. I'm now 183 days out.

Congratulations!

 

[mana_liz]

We are in the process of buying our first contract at SSR. We had one taken by Disney and are in RoFR for another. I was just wondering if the chart for studio availability was still holding true for the middle of August. Planning to go for 2 weeks in August 2017 and I know we will not be able to book at our 11 month window.

 

[skier_pete]

We are in the process of buying our first contract at SSR. We had one taken by Disney and are in RoFR for another. I was just wondering if the chart for studio availability was still holding true for the middle of August. Planning to go for 2 weeks in August 2017 and I know we will not be able to book at our 11 month window.

@mana_liz - Welcome to the world of DVC! It's hard to know exactly if these charts will become inaccurate over time without constantly monitoring the availabilty and updating them. Since I don't really want to do that - I'll give you my opinion - which is that I do not think you will see a significant difference in 2017 versus previous years.

You should have no problem with getting your pick of most resorts in August. Early August is a high point season, and though Disney is still fairly busy, DVC is not. August 15th - 31st is a "shoulder" season, and while the points are less, it is NOT a popular time of year for DVC or even for Disney World - typically southern schools are already back in session by August 15th, and Northerners don't really want to come down in the heat of summer - so not a very busy time. In short, you should not have a problem getting in somewhere even at the 7 month mark.

Good luck!

 

[mana_liz]

Thanks, your charts are extremely helpful and detailed. I'm a teacher from MI, so we are kinda limited to summer and school vacations. Since we don't go back until after Labor Day, we get to take advantage of the slightly lower middle-end of August crowds. We are planning on arriving Sat, 8/12 but not hit the parks until that Monday.

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks, your charts are extremely helpful and detailed. I'm a teacher from MI, so we are kinda limited to summer and school vacations. Since we don't go back until after Labor Day, we get to take advantage of the slightly lower middle-end of August crowds. We are planning on arriving Sat, 8/12 but not hit the parks until that Monday.

You should have a good shot at your choice of many resorts at that time of year if you book at seven months. Probably everything but Grand Floridian and maybe Beach Club. I wouldn't even bother booking your home resort (SSR) as a backup, because you would need to cancel it before booking the new one. Figure out where you want to go, and then be ready to book first thing (8 am Eastern) on January 12th.

 

[Mommymalinoski]

Thanks everyone for all the positive feedback! I'm glad to have other folks using this!



Too much time on my hands? No way. I did it in bits and pieces when I found the time. I wish I had more time and could do the whole gamut of room styles, but towards the end it just got tedious.

I hardly remember now why I started working on it, but I think it really was to understand how difficult each resort was to get into at the 7-month mark. I started out doing just the 7-month table, but then the new resort availability tool came out, and I decided to go back to the 11-month point for each resort, which made it take longer than a year. The information that really surprised me is how easy it is to get into most of the resorts at 7-months from January - September. Even relatively new resorts like BLT.

I think this is an amazing tool! Thank you so much!