POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[DopeyBadger]

Thank you so much @DopeyBadger for all the great work you do around this for us DISers. I cannot find the post now, but at one point when we were speculating on bib numbers to corrals, I think you had posted a table or information on it and I cannot find it now. I just looked up my princess half bib and it's 786 (I am doing only the half marathon). Is it safe to assume this is a solid corral B bib? I submitted a PoT of a 58 minute 10k. I think that's a yes but I am seeing a ton of speculation on FB about expanded corral A and B fields but I think it's just wild guessing. Any ideas?

Based on past assignments, a 58 min 10k submitted for a HM solo or HM Challenge would solidly be in Corral B.

I don't use past bib numbers to make guesses about assignments because it very much depends on the number of participants. Bib #1000 in a 2000 person race is greatly different than Bib #1000 in a 20000 person race. Even within a weekend, the number of bibs assigned varies year over year.

There are ~11,495 HM solo bibs. About 17-20% of those will be under the Corral B cutoff posted on the OP based on previous runDisney Marathon weekends, but Princess could trend slower. So I would guess the cutoff for Corral B based on 11,495 bibs and about 17-20% of the field is somewhere around Bib #1950-2300 or so. That's a VERY rough guess. Based on @WillRunForPizza's post in the thread bib #18xx is a 2:15-2:30 estimate, and bib #4XX is a 1:57 HM POT (which would be corral A, but near the cutoff of 2:00). So your bib number of #786 is right in the middle area closer to 4XX and looks like a Corral B assignment even outside of the knowledge of the 58 min 10k.

 

[prncssjas]

So your bib number of #786 is right in the middle area closer to 4XX and looks like a Corral B assignment even outside of the knowledge of the 58 min 10k.

Thank you so much, as usual! Super helpful and I know it's foolish to spend time wondering when I will know in a couple of days. I saw folks assuming all corrals are all the same size and that's simply not true. A and B are the smallest based on what I have seen.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Thank you so much, as usual! Super helpful and I know it's foolish to spend time wondering when I will know in a couple of days. I saw folks assuming all corrals are all the same size and that's simply not true. A and B are the smallest based on what I have seen.

Hey, we've all been there and enjoy the buildup to the race itself. And that includes spending some mental energy the days before the expo trying to ascertain bib number to corral assignment. But at the end of the day, the system in the OP has been solid for several years when it comes to HM and M assignments. Although I do believe they're under new management now, so changes could be coming. While unlikely, it wouldn't shock me to see all OP assigned Corral A (sub 2:00) and B runners (sub 2:15) put just in Corral A, but again that would be against the last several years of how they've done things.

Years ago they used to do evenly assigned corrals (evenly distribute M/Goofy/Dopey). Like the image below:





But they stopped doing it (I assume) because of all the complaints from non-POT runners who would submit the fastest possible choice (I believe it was written submission and not a drop down). So those that put exactly 5:30:00 could have been assigned I, J or K based on the above. They presumably got lots of emails pre-race about how Joe and Sally put the same time and got different assignments. So they stopped posting the corral info in advance, and they moved to lesser corrals with mini-waves. Then they didn't have to control how many runners were assigned to Corral A or B. Instead, Corral A would take 2 min to release and Corral C would take 25 min to release with mini-waves released every couple minutes (proportional to the number of runners assigned to it). Since 2020 or so, they've used the system that I account for in the OP, and the corrals are not evenly distributed like seen in this image covering 2018-2020.

 

[kps7795]

Can I just tell you that my heart stopped when I saw your updated chart because my eyes were drawn to the 10 Mile POT of 1:31:15. I was looking to check the half marathon time for Wine and Dine and I completely thought that the 10 Mile POT was the new POT for a half marathon.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Can I just tell you that my heart stopped when I saw your updated chart because my eyes were drawn to the 10 Mile POT of 1:31:15. I was looking to check the half marathon time for Wine and Dine and I completely thought that the 10 Mile POT was the new POT for a half marathon.

That sure would have been an aggressive cutoff. Less than a hundred runners for sure.

 

[kps7795]

That sure would have been an aggressive cutoff. Less than a hundred runners for sure.

This is close to the Time Qualifier for the NYC Marathon based on half-marathon times for my age bracket (1:32:00). That is just stupid fast!

 

[DopeyBadger]

This is close to the Time Qualifier for the NYC Marathon based on half-marathon times for my age bracket (1:32:00). That is just stupid fast!

Yea, the NYC Time Qualifier standard is really tough. Less than 1-3% of runners within a AG standard can actually hit that. A BQ is somewhere around 3-6% of runners within a AG standard. Both are intentionally fast for different reasons. NYC really wants to restrict time qualifiers, whereas Boston uses that as it's main registration method.

 

[jmasgat]

Yea, the NYC Time Qualifier standard is really tough. Less than 1-3% of runners within a AG standard can actually hit that. A BQ is somewhere around 3-6% of runners within a AG standard. Both are intentionally fast for different reasons. NYC really wants to restrict time qualifiers, whereas Boston uses that as it's main registration method.

But if you're an older runner, it's great! It's how I got in both times I qualified. They've since made it harder, and now are getting rid of the half for non-NYRR runners.

Now if they'd just stop sending me emails telling me my time last Nov qualifies me for automatic entry this year. It's embarrassing to think that slow a time is sufficient.

 

[Cabius]

POT info for Marathon Weekend 2025

https://www.rundisney.com/events/disneyworld/disneyworld-marathon-weekend/events/marathon/

Proof of time is required for starting group placement if you claim you will finish a marathon in 5 hours (5:00) or less, or a half marathon in 2 hours and 30 minutes (2:30) or less. Otherwise, proof of time is not required.

We do not accept self-timed, training or virtual runs as proof of time. Proof of time must be provided by the participant for each individual race from an officially timed 10K, 12K, 15K, 10-Mile, Half Marathon or Marathon race reflecting results within the last two (2) years.

Past runDisney races may be used as proof of time; however, you will need to submit them with your race registration. Participants will be placed in the last start group if the required proof of time is not submitted. If you submit a proof of time from a race distance other than a Half Marathon, an industry standard calculation will be applied to equate your time.

If proof of time is not provided by July 1, 2024, or if the data provided is incomplete or cannot be verified, you will be placed in the last start group. No start group changes will be made after such date.

 

[GollyGadget]

In case you missed it (like I did the first time) The website is indicating new POT distances of 12K & 15K. I find it very interesting that they're adding more complexity to their verification but I am happy to see more options for folks.

 

[Cabius]

In case you missed it (like I did the first time) The website is indicating new POT distances of 12K & 15K. I find it very interesting that they're adding more complexity to their verification but I am happy to see more options for folks.

There's some contradiction on the website.

If you look specifically at the Marathon page, it has says 10m, HM, or M for a Marathon POT, or 10k, 10m, HM, or M for the HM POT:



But then under 'Race Policies' it does list additional times:

 

[fatmanatee]

There's some contradiction on the website.

If you look specifically at the Marathon page, it has says 10m, HM, or M for a Marathon POT, or 10k, 10m, HM, or M for the HM POT:

View attachment 843182

But then under 'Race Policies' it does list additional times:
View attachment 843184

This might be another case of RD not proofreading their website updates.

 

[The Expert]

This might be another case of RD not proofreading their website updates.

 

[Cabius]

Update on POT for MW 2025 -- I reached out to the official email address, and they confirmed that they are NOT accepting the 10k, 12k, or 15k distances for the full marathon. (I know it says this info is 'not for public viewing' but lol here it is)

HI Caleb,

Thanks for reaching out. The accepted distances for the Marathon/Dopey/Goofy Challenges are a 10-Mile, Half Marathon, or Full Marathon.

Have a magical day!

Thank you,
Track Shack Events on behalf of runDisney
*Please note this is confidential information and is not intended for public viewing

 

[Bree]

Update on POT for MW 2025 -- I reached out to the official email address, and they confirmed that they are NOT accepting the 10k, 12k, or 15k distances for the full marathon. (I know it says this info is 'not for public viewing' but lol here it is)

They never accepted a race under 10 miles as POT for the full so that response makes sense. They used to take 12k and 15k for half marathons though.

 

[MouseInTX]

So, forgive me if I am mistaken, but a half marathon POT of 1:42 should be solidly in corral A..?

 

[DopeyBadger]

So, forgive me if I am mistaken, but a half marathon POT of 1:42 should be solidly in corral A..?

Yes, based on the current system a 1:42 HM POT would be a corral A assignment for a rundisney HM, M, or any challenge.

 

[KCO5988]

Am I understanding it correctly that in signing up for Dopey you only enter one POT? So either a half marathon or a full? And then they use the formula in the OP to assign the other corral? So, for example if you entered a sub-4hr marathon you would be in corral A for the full and the half, even if you don't have a sub 1:53:45 POT for the half? Sorry if this is super obvious and I'm just being dumb.

 

[jmasgat]

Am I understanding it correctly that in signing up for Dopey you only enter one POT? So either a half marathon or a full? And then they use the formula in the OP to assign the other corral? So, for example if you entered a sub-4hr marathon you would be in corral A for the full and the half, even if you don't have a sub 1:53:45 POT for the half? Sorry if this is super obvious and I'm just being dumb.

Yes, you are correct. One POT will seed you for half/full. The 5/10k seeding is based on your self-reported expected pace--POT is not used for those races.

 

[GollyGadget]

Am I understanding it correctly that in signing up for Dopey you only enter one POT? So either a half marathon or a full? And then they use the formula in the OP to assign the other corral? So, for example if you entered a sub-4hr marathon you would be in corral A for the full and the half, even if you don't have a sub 1:53:45 POT for the half? Sorry if this is super obvious and I'm just being dumb.

Yes, as @camaker said, only one PoT for the challenge. The confusing part is that your 4:00 marathon will get you into corral A but for someone running the HM, they only need a 4:21.