Posted wait times vs actual waits

[Happyjen27]

Still working on deciding whether LL will be worth it for us in a couple weeks. We usually arrive in the late afternoon and then stay til park close. We have 7 days in the parks probably with park hopper.

How have the actual wait times versus the posted wait times been stacking up this week?

 

[_19disnA]

Haven't been to Disney recently, but the last time we were there, the posted wait times at ride entrances were all over the map. For the size of the line and how fast it was moving some were clearly way too long while others too short. I have no idea how they are actually determined and have seen a lot of guesses on this topic in the past. Would be curious to hear from a current Disney employee about what they actually do and if the method varies based on the ride. If those operating the ride have to manually update the posted times, perhaps they get busy/distracted doing something else and forget to change it. We stopped looking at those times and decided if it was worth waiting based on the length of the line and how fast it seemed to be moving.

Clearly the most popular rides will tend to draw the most people and have longer wait times compared to something less popular.

 

[CaroM8]

I think this varies a lot depending on a lot of factors...

During our trip in September, the only rides that the posted wait time was pretty accurate was Flight of Passage and Rise which were about 40mins each. Other rides such as Frozen and Seven Dwarfs were posted over 40mins but the actual wait was closer to 20min. All rides posting a 10min or less was essentially walk on. It is to be noted that the crowds were fairly light during that time... Hope this helps

ETA: I've been keeping an eye on wait times this week and it looks BUSY! Saw Tron with 150mins wait at some point!!

 

[holden]

We got in line for Guardians about 15 minutes before closing. Posted wait time was 65 minutes. We were off of the ride in 35 minutes, so actual wait time was probably around 30 minutes. That time went by fast. Line was constantly moving and the two pre-shows filled the time too.

 

[DavidNYC]

There is no coordinated effort or pattern to wait time postings. The estimated wait time is based on factors from the wait times of people who are at the front of the line. At any given ride at any given time there may be a breakdown, lots of wheelchairs that slow loading, a greater or fewer number of LL who return etc. On the whole wait times are mostly accurate other than the very beginning of day where the line situation can changes drastically over a short time and very end where you stop getting LL returns so standby moves much much quicker. It’s futile to try to discern a park wide pattern other than wait times are often slightly overstated because it’s better to overestimate than underestimate for guest satisfaction. But at any moment - something could affect the prediction and slow down the line.

 

[SL6827]

Around park closing time, the posted wait times are just an absolute lie. And there is now a financial benefit for Disney to jack those times up beyond a 10-15 minute buffer.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

With the possible exception of the times posted just before closing, I don't think there's any great conspiracy to misrepresent the times throughout the parks. There are many factors that go into the estimated times - which are "estimated". Agree with many who say it's better for Disney to overstate the times a bit and then have guests get through more quickly. But throughout the day, the attractions can be slowed for many unforeseen events.

WDW could avoid the late-night time-bump-conspiracy by doing what they do in Tokyo Disney - they estimate how many people they can get through before actual closing time, and then put up a stop sign at the back of the line to not allow any more guests in line! Then the guests are through very close to actual closing time, and guests and cast members can plan accordingly!! Not sure how that would be received in Florida or California!

 

[SL6827]

With the possible exception of the times posted just before closing, I don't think there's any great conspiracy to misrepresent the times throughout the parks. There are many factors that go into the estimated times - which are "estimated". Agree with many who say it's better for Disney to overstate the times a bit and then have guests get through more quickly. But throughout the day, the attractions can be slowed for many unforeseen events.

WDW could avoid the late-night time-bump-conspiracy by doing what they do in Tokyo Disney - they estimate how many people they can get through before actual closing time, and then put up a stop sign at the back of the line to not allow any more guests in line! Then the guests are through very close to actual closing time, and guests and cast members can plan accordingly!! Not sure how that would be received in Florida or California!

I bet at some point DW will follow suit with Tokyo.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I don't bet anymore regarding anything Disney might do or not do!!

 

[pens4821]

Ive read here for years about the inflated posted wait times. However, our experience for the last 10 years has been they are pretty accurate. The only time they aren’t is the very end of the night. Our experience also is that about an hour before close they are still quite accurate. It seems to be the last half hour and near closing where they aren’t what’s posted (we’ve had a couple times they were accurate even at the end).

I’d say that for us more often than not our wait time has been within 10ish minutes either way of posted (once again minus the last 15ish minutes).

 

[HeiHei2018]

We were there during a slow week in august, and posted wait times were pretty accurate for the rides we did standby. Navi River at AK closing time was posted 45, took at least 35. I think the longer wait times may be less accurate, especially because the higher posted time will deter people from getting in line. Character meets tend to move slower, possibly because interaction times differ depending on the group. Princess Fairytale Hall was posted 15 around 8 pm and probably took 25 or more. The Mickey meet in Epcot was also longer than posted near park open.
If you want more accurate wait times, it might be worth subscribing to the Lines app.