Poly Tower decision and RIV restrictions

[lowlight]

Gladiator 2

Wh…what? Why? This is the first I’ve heard of this movie. I don’t even have to watch the preview to know it shouldn’t have been made. Spoiler alert- he ded, no need for sequel.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Musicals are notorious for not performing across all four quadrants and this is going to be no different. Wicked was already going to struggle with the male demographic with Gladiator 2 opening up a week before it but now it will struggle with the family demo with Moana 2.

The right move would be to move Wicked up a week or two or even to the start of November to get a bigger runway away from competition.

Exactly.

There's a reason they didn't advertise Wonka as a musical.

Just sayin.

(We saw it christmas day, enjoyed it a lot, but I also have a big ole man crush on Timothy. Cant wait for Dune 2)

I still disagree! Looking at the numbers, Wicked is a monstrous global phenomena in a class all its own. 65 million people have seen it, and it’s made over 5 billion dollars. Awareness spans generations. These stats dwarf Moana, which doesn’t even rank in Disney’s top 10. ( Just fyi, it’s #14 at 687 million.)

But I love Moana! And I hope the movie is good, but I’m a little worried by the fact that it originated with a lower budget for Disney+, where it was intended to premiere up until a few days ago. And the original didn’t resonate as strongly with the core audience as many other Disney animated movies.

The global awareness of Wicked is through the roof. Not so for Moana. On paper, I think you’d have to bet on Wicked. Of course, all sorts of intangibles will also ultimately come into play. If it’s bad, word of mouth will kill it. Same for Moana. But if it’s good, and Moana is just ok (look at Disney’s recent animated movies), Wicked will wind up on top.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I still disagree! Looking at the numbers, Wicked is a monstrous global phenomena in a class all its own. 65 million people have seen it, and it’s made over 5 billion dollars. Awareness spans generations. These stats dwarf Moana, which doesn’t even rank in Disney’s top 10. ( Just fyi, it’s #14 at 687 million.)

How did the movie versions of Phantom, A Chorus Line, Cats, Jersey Boys, and the recent West Side Story remake do? You have to look all the way back to Chicago in 2002 to see any meaningful box office for movie musicals adapted from stage productions. Le Mis in 2012 is slightly higher, but cost significantly more to produce. Sure, Wicked is wicked bigger than all of the other non-adapted works, but I just don't see it doing double what Les Mis took in.

Also, ask anyone today what Idina Menzel is famous for, and you'll get "she's Elsa" about 97% of the time. Hey, my sister has worked on Broadway for over 20 years, and has been on some of the biggest shows during that time, so I LOVE Broadway, but I'm a realist and know that stage productions adapted to film, particularly musicals, never seem to have the same legs. There's a reason you see a movie musical adaptation only every dozen years or so (if that, and West Side Story is a passion project).

 

[Paul Stupin]

How did the movie versions of Phantom, A Chorus Line, Cats, Jersey Boys, and the recent West Side Story remake do? You have to look all the way back to Chicago in 2002 to see any meaningful box office for movie musicals adapted from stage productions. Le Mis in 2012 is slightly higher, but cost significantly more to produce. Sure, Wicked is wicked bigger than all of the other non-adapted works, but I just don't see it doing double what Les Mis took in.

Also, ask anyone today what Idina Menzel is famous for, and you'll get "she's Elsa" about 97% of the time. Hey, my sister has worked on Broadway for over 20 years, and has been on some of the biggest shows during that time, so I LOVE Broadway, but I'm a realist and know that stage productions adapted to film, particularly musicals, never seem to have the same legs. There's a reason you see a movie musical adaptation only every dozen years or so (if that, and West Side Story is a passion project).

Good points! But, Moana isn’t Frozen. People might know who voices Elsa, but does anyone know who voices Moana? Frankly, I’m not sure anyone was clamoring for a Moana sequel. I’m a Disney fan, and I wasn’t. Of course I’ll still see it, but honestly I’m not going to be counting the days. I think people like the original, but is it really beloved, like Frozen?

I think your examples of movie versions of various plays are, no offense, stodgy and ancient. Wonka wasn’t marketed as a musical, but I don’t think they fooled anyone, word of mouth was huge, and it was a sizable hit. The movie creates an original, visually stunning fantasy world. Wicked Will as well. And don’t underestimate Ariana Grande’s appeal to a young audience. She’s going to be a huge draw for the teen and pre teen female audience, and that’s the engine that normally powers Disney.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Good points! But, Moana isn’t Frozen. People might know who voices Elsa, but does anyone know who voices Moana? Frankly, I’m not sure anyone was clamoring for a Moana sequel. I’m a Disney fan, and I wasn’t. Of course I’ll still see it, but honestly I’m not going to be counting the days. I think people like the original, but is it really beloved, like Frozen?

I think your examples of movie versions of various plays are, no offense, stodgy and ancient. Wonka wasn’t marketed as a musical, but I don’t think they fooled anyone, word of mouth was huge, and it was a sizable hit. The movie creates an original, visually stunning fantasy world. Wicked Will as well. And don’t underestimate Ariana Grande’s appeal to a young audience. She’s going to be a huge draw for the teen and pre teen female audience, and that’s the engine that normally powers Disney.

While I don't think you are wrong that Wicked will do well (relatively), I think you are selling Moana short. It is hugely popular. It was the #1 most watched movie last year across all streaming services:

And it's been toward the top of the list for years, above Frozen except for 2020 when Frozen 2 was on top (but Moana was still above Frozen I). I would say yes, Moana is beloved.

 

[TCRAIG]

If you think RIV gets hate, you should be one that happens to mention that they really like SSR...

I think that a lot of the hate it has is from those that have either never stayed there or at least have not stayed there since the renovations and the fact that it always seems to be available at 7 months, part of which is because there are just so many points there...

That said, we really like SSR, IMHO it is the most underrated DVC resort, but I do understand that not many share my opinion. However, we always drive, which probably makes a huge difference there...

I actually prefer staying at SSR over RIV - and yes, I’ve stayed at both…

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

That's my last post about Moana vs Wicked on here because we've really gotten the thread off the rails!
All in good fun

 

[bryaalre]

I still disagree! Looking at the numbers, Wicked is a monstrous global phenomena in a class all its own. 65 million people have seen it, and it’s made over 5 billion dollars. Awareness spans generations. These stats dwarf Moana, which doesn’t even rank in Disney’s top 10. ( Just fyi, it’s #14 at 687 million.)

But I love Moana! And I hope the movie is good, but I’m a little worried by the fact that it originated with a lower budget for Disney+, where it was intended to premiere up until a few days ago. And the original didn’t resonate as strongly with the core audience as many other Disney animated movies.

The global awareness of Wicked is through the roof. Not so for Moana. On paper, I think you’d have to bet on Wicked. Of course, all sorts of intangibles will also ultimately come into play. If it’s bad, word of mouth will kill it. Same for Moana. But if it’s good, and Moana is just ok (look at Disney’s recent animated movies), Wicked will wind up on top.

I don't expect much from a TV series turned movie but I fully expect Moana 2 to dominate Wicked at the box office. As much as Wicked spans generations, so did West Side Story and that didn't make it to $100M. Wicked also is split into two parts and the history of movies being split into two has consistently resulted in the under performance of part 1.

Forgot what thread I was in lol, sorry about the derailment

 

[Paul Stupin]

That's my last post about Moana vs Wicked on here because we've really gotten the thread off the rails!
All in good fun

Agreed! We should get back on topic.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think your examples of movie versions of various plays are, no offense, stodgy and ancient. Wonka wasn’t marketed as a musical, but I don’t think they fooled anyone, word of mouth was huge, and it was a sizable hit. The movie creates an original, visually stunning fantasy world. Wicked Will as well. And don’t underestimate Ariana Grande’s appeal to a young audience. She’s going to be a huge draw for the teen and pre teen female audience, and that’s the engine that normally powers Disney.

My examples are all of Broadway musicals that were adapted to film (as is Wicked). There's nothing stodgy or ancient about them. They run from 1985 (A Chorus Line) right up to Cats (2019) and West Side Story (2021).

Wonka isn't a film adaptation of a stage play. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was adapted TO the stage in 2013, 42 years AFTER the original film. It was also the third attempt at making a film based on the 1964 Roald Dahl novel (and nowhere near as engaging as the "stodgy and ancient original")(.

I'm out on this debate too.

 

[kilik64]

What were we talking about again?

 

[Cabius]

The Moana vs Wicked discussion probably should be split to its own thread.

That said, my contribution is that the Box Office results of comparable movies suggest that Moana 2 would be a heavy favorite over Wicked.

• Phantom of the Opera - $51m domestic / $148m worldwide
• Les Miserables - $148m domestic / $442m worldwide
• Moana - $248m domestic / $687m worldwide

I really love Wicked, and have seen it several times, but it doesn't have the cultural footprint of Phantom or Les Miserables (both of which have had significantly more soundtrack sales/streams than Wicked). Les Mis is the highest performing movie adaptation of a stage musical ever, and the original Moana absolutely clobbered it. Even if you want to argue that Wicked is more beloved, it's not twice as beloved.

Apart from animated musicals like Moana, the biggest box office hits are jukebox musicals, like Bohemian Rhapsody or Mamma Mia, which rely on affinity for the band rather than love for the original stage production.

 

[Cabius]

Back on topic:

I own 350 points at PVB (100 direct, 250 re-sale bought in 2021 and 2022). As my family has grown from 4 to 6 in the last few years (newest additional just 2 months old), I really hope I'll be able to book 2BRs at the new tower.

If not, we'll stick with our current habit of renting two studios, or occasionally decamping for BRV or another resort with good 2BR availability. But hey, we'd free up two studios for somebody else!

 

[Paul Stupin]

My examples are all of Broadway musicals that were adapted to film (as is Wicked). There's nothing stodgy or ancient about them. They run from 1985 (A Chorus Line) right up to Cats (2019) and West Side Story (2021).

Wonka isn't a film adaptation of a stage play. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory was adapted TO the stage in 2013, 42 years AFTER the original film. It was also the third attempt at making a film based on the 1964 Roald Dahl novel (and nowhere near as engaging as the "stodgy and ancient original".

I'm out on this debate too.

All I’m saying is that the original IP for virtually all of the adaptations you cited is, yes, old and dusty. And I disagree about Wonka. I know it’s not based on a play, and I absolutely love the movie version with Gene Wilder, but I loved Wonka too. I thought it was just as good, frankly.

Anyway, sorry for straying back off topic again! I think we’re all rooting for Moana anyway, but I disagree with everyone being so immediately dismissive of Wicked as competition. And sequels like the new Moana rarely, if ever, perform as well as the original, and this one was made for video originally. Those are all uniformly rather mediocre.

 

[Cabius]

And sequels like the new Moana rarely, if ever, perform as well as the original

Except for Frozen 2 ($1.45b vs $1.27b)
And Incredibles 2 ($1.24b vs $631m)
And Toy Story 4 ($1,072m) and Toy Story 3 ($1,068m) and Toy Story 2 ($511m) vs Toy Story 1 ($365m)
And Finding Dory ($1,025m vs $936m)
And Monsters University ($743m vs $560m)
And Ralph Breaks the Internet ($529m vs $496m)
And Cars 2 ($560m vs $461m) [I'll give you Cars 3, which underperformed with $383m]

With the exception of Cars 3, as nearly as I can tell every Disney and Pixar theatrical sequel has outperformed the original.

In the post-Covid era, I don't expect Moana 2 to break box office records. But the baseline assumption, based on reality rather than somebody on the internet just making up their own set of facts, is that theatrical sequels are almost universally more popular than the originals.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Except for Frozen 2 ($1.45b vs $1.27b)
And Incredibles 2 ($1.24b vs $631m)
And Toy Story 4 ($1,072m) and Toy Story 3 ($1,068m) and Toy Story 2 ($511m) vs Toy Story 1 ($365m)
And Finding Dory ($1,025m vs $936m)
And Monsters University ($743m vs $560m)
And Ralph Breaks the Internet ($529m vs $496m)
And Cars 2 ($560m vs $461m) [I'll give you Cars 3, which underperformed with $383m]

With the exception of Cars 3, as nearly as I can tell every Disney and Pixar theatrical sequel has outperformed the original.

In the post-Covid era, I don't expect Moana 2 to break box office records. But the baseline assumption, based on reality rather than somebody on the internet just making up their own set of facts, is that theatrical sequels are almost universally more popular than the originals.

Good points!

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Is there evidence that PVB2 is getting pushed past 2024 or is it just that DVC didn't mention it at the annual meeting?

 

[Cabius]

Is there evidence that PVB2 is getting pushed past 2024 or is it just that DVC didn't mention it at the annual meeting?

On the contrary, the earnings call resulted in an updated list of coming attractions that listed PVB2 as "Late 2024"

 

[Chili327]

DL did end up being new association with full restrictions like RIV.

I can understand your disappointment with how this is being handled.

There is no going back if Poly Tower is offered same association and unrestricted.

If they were to remove restrictions they would have to remove them from all resorts,, right??
There is no way they would bother taking them away from RIV, but still leave them at VDH.. Right?

 

[intamin]

If they were to remove restrictions they would have to remove them from all resorts,, right??
There is no way they would bother taking them away from RIV, but still leave them at VDH.. Right?

You would hope.. but at the same time this is Disney I wouldn't put it past them to mess it up..