Poll: Are you going to buy at Riviera

[Bing Showei]

This is just incorrect. Resales do not create new points at a resort.

No. Reallocations take care of that.

But that aside, it doesn’t take creating new points to introduce the demand issues Madame is referring to.

It’s, of course, all speculation at this point, but it stands to reason that if people are only able to book at their home resort, which will be increasingly the case as more resale contracts enter the system, that 11-7 month window creates a new impetus that does not presently exist at any other resort.

 

[Mousewerks]

Huh? The 11 month window is going to become seriously competitive at a resort where, as time goes on more and more owners can *only* book there. I have no idea what you’re on about.

No more so than if all the points were sold from Disney. There are only x number of points for sale at a given resort. Disney is entirely responsible for how many points each contract must hold. If they sell a ton of let's say 50 point contracts, this expands the number of contracts to compete at the 11th month. Conversely if they say you must by at least 200 points, this cuts the number of contracts down to one fourth the size of the number of 50 point contracts.

What you are suggesting is that because the resales cannot book at anywhere but Riviera, this will cause competition to increase at the 11th month because these contracts cannot book at anything at the 7th month. It will not actually do this because those contracts were sold originally by Disney and the competition at the 11th month will never be more than it is when all contracts are sold by Disney. Therefore it will not increase, it just will always be high. The only thing that can reduce this is if those who still own direct points decide to devalue their points and use them at any of the original 14 at the 7 month window.

So you see, there is nothing new here.. .it's the same problem it always is at every resort. Instead of both resale and direct points being able to trade out at 7 months, only direct points will be able to trade out. At original resorts, both resale and direct points compete at maximum competition at the 11th month. At Riviera, both resale and direct points compete at maximum competition at the 11th month.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

No more so than if all the points were sold from Disney. There are only x number of points for sale at a given resort. Disney is entirely responsible for how many points each contract must hold. If they sell a ton of let's say 50 point contracts, this expands the number of contracts to compete at the 11th month. Conversely if they say you must by at least 200 points, this cuts the number of contracts down to one fourth the size of the number of 50 point contracts.

What you are suggesting is that because the resales cannot book at anywhere but Riviera, this will cause competition to increase at the 11th month because these contracts cannot book at anything at the 7th month. It will not actually do this because those contracts were sold originally by Disney and the competition at the 11th month will never be more than it is when all contracts are sold by Disney. Therefore it will not increase, it just will always be high. The only thing that can reduce this is if those who still own direct points decide to devalue their points and use them at any of the original 14 at the 7 month window.

So you see, there is nothing new here.. .it's the same problem it always is at every resort. Instead of both resale and direct points being able to trade out at 7 months, only direct points will be able to trade out. At original resorts, both resale and direct points compete at maximum competition at the 11th month. At Riviera, both resale and direct points compete at maximum competition at the 11th month.

Surprisingly there have been lots of people that buy resorts direct thru Disney because that's what they are selling but they planned or preferred to stay elsewhere - and do that, thus not even entering into the 11 month booking window. With a points based system it's up to the owners to choose when to book. Buyers may purchase with the thought to always go to Food and Wine and there's no guarantee that every single other buyer at the resort hasn't done the same thing.

Nobody is stating that every single room at Riviera will magically be booked at 11 months but it is highly likely that the busy DVC times will be difficult there and if you're a small point owner you don't have the option to book 2BR's for a week when you purchased to book studios. If people start getting shut out at 8 months they will book at 9 months. Shut out at 9 months then 10 months. Shut out at 10 months? They'll all be booking their chosen times at 8am eastern at 11 months. And it doesn't even take that large of a percentage purchasing to book the Oct or Dec time frame or race weekends to start being rather unhappy.

 

[ELMC]

Surprisingly there have been lots of people that buy resorts direct thru Disney because that's what they are selling but they planned or preferred to stay elsewhere - and do that thus not even entering into the 11 month booking window. With a points based system it's up to the owners to choose when to book. Buyers may purchase with the thought to always go to Food and Wine and there's no guarantee that every single other buyer at the resort hasn't done the same thing.

Nobody is stating that every single room at Riviera will magically be booked at 11 months but it is highly likely that the busy DVC times will be difficult there and if you're a small point owner you don't have the option to book 2BR's for a week when you purchased to book studios. If people start getting shut out at 8 months they will book at 9 months. Shut out at 9 months then 10 months. Shut out at 10 months? They'll all be booking their chosen times at 8am eastern at 11 months. And it doesn't even take that large of a percentage purchasing to book the Oct or Dec time frame or race weekends to start being rather unhappy.

Sadly you forgot to mention getting shut out at 8am at 11 months out. We all know what that leads to...

 

[DougEMG]

No more so than if all the points were sold from Disney. There are only x number of points for sale at a given resort. Disney is entirely responsible for how many points each contract must hold. If they sell a ton of let's say 50 point contracts, this expands the number of contracts to compete at the 11th month. Conversely if they say you must by at least 200 points, this cuts the number of contracts down to one fourth the size of the number of 50 point contracts.

What you are suggesting is that because the resales cannot book at anywhere but Riviera, this will cause competition to increase at the 11th month because these contracts cannot book at anything at the 7th month. It will not actually do this because those contracts were sold originally by Disney and the competition at the 11th month will never be more than it is when all contracts are sold by Disney. Therefore it will not increase, it just will always be high. The only thing that can reduce this is if those who still own direct points decide to devalue their points and use them at any of the original 14 at the 7 month window.

So you see, there is nothing new here.. .it's the same problem it always is at every resort. Instead of both resale and direct points being able to trade out at 7 months, only direct points will be able to trade out. At original resorts, both resale and direct points compete at maximum competition at the 11th month. At Riviera, both resale and direct points compete at maximum competition at the 11th month.

You are completely wrong.

Competition at the Riviera for studios will increase as more points are restricted to only being able to book at the Riviera. Resale owners will be forced to book as early as possible because they will not have the option to book at another resort if they can't book the time they want at the Riviera. This is going to cause walking to become a much bigger issue here than at any other resort. This does not happen at other resorts now. A POLY or CCV owner may be unable to get the studio they want for their 1st choice, but at least they can book at other resorts and get their 2nd or 3rd choice. People may look at SSR as the ugly step-child, but at least it is usually available if nothing else is.

Anyone who buys Riviera resale and is planning on booking studios there had better be able to plan 10-11 months out all the time, otherwise their options are going to be quiet limited.

 

[Mousewerks]

You are completely wrong.

Competition at the Riviera for studios will increase as more points are restricted to only being able to book at the Riviera. Resale owners will be forced to book as early as possible because they will not have the option to book at another resort if they can't book the time they want at the Riviera. This is going to cause walking to become a much bigger issue here than at any other resort. This does not happen at other resorts now. A POLY or CCV owner may be unable to get the studio they want for their 1st choice, but at least they can book at other resorts and get their 2nd or 3rd choice. People may look at SSR as the ugly step-child, but at least it is usually available if nothing else is.

Anyone who buys Riviera resale and is planning on booking studios there had better be able to plan 10-11 months out all the time, otherwise their options are going to be quiet limited.

I'm not sure where you think I am wrong because you basically agreed with me.

Where I think everyone gets a little 'wrapped around the axle' here is conflating a DVC contract with the person who owns the contract. If you treat a DVC contract as a 'block' for instance, then you can see where the blocks fit, how big the blocks are and what characteristics the blocks have. Thus, the main problem is Disney selling small contracts, ie. small blocks. These small blocks may be just the size of a studio reservation for 3 days. So you can see then that it takes many more of these blocks to fill up the 'bucket' of a studio room at (pick your resort). If Disney had a minimum purchase of 500 points, we would not be having this conversation. There would be far fewer contracts competing for a room. Conversely, it is in the resort's best interest to be as full as possible for as long as possible. That's how they make money. So Disney tries to manage that tension by setting a minimum purchase level.

What we are discussing here is what is the percentage of blocks being labeled as 'unable to be traded' vs ''able to be traded'. At the extreme left end, the percentage is 100%. That is, every contract has been labeled 'unable'. At that point, what will all the points in all the contracts be able to acquire? All the contracts will acquire all the rooms available to book. This does NOT mean that an individual owner will be able to get their preferred room. If all the contracts were small blocks, not everyone will be able to get what they desire. At the extreme right end, there are no blocks labeled 'unable'. THERE MAY STILL BE OWNERS UNABLE to BOOK THEIR PREFERRED STAY because their block size is not big enough (i.e. move up in room cost). This problem means that Disney has erred in managing the tension for booking that resort.

Now what we are discussing is the middle somewhere. I think what @DougEMG pointed out is why I believe the price of a resale point at Riviera will drop to at least SSR level and probably very much lower as this reality sets in. I also believe that there will be few resale contracts available, relatively speaking, which will help buoy the price of a resale Riviera (or Reflections for that matter) point. I believe the percentage of blocks being labeled 'unable' will be low, probably no more than 20%. It will also be interesting to see how long it takes Riviera to sell out.

 

[Katie L]

I believe the percentage of blocks being labeled 'unable' will be low, probably no more than 20%. It will also be interesting to see how long it takes Riviera to sell out.

People buy this thinking they will want to use it for 50 years. The vast majority sell well before then according to Disney (something I don't think they expected back in the early '90s).

They'll charge a fee for you to get "complete direct benefits". The question is how high will the fee be... it's not going to be nominal. Now that they've decided to really get involved in the resale market, it's only going to get more interesting. I think of almost every other arena of goods and services and it sorta blows my mind that they now want to figure out how to get profit. The resort restriction is certainly the most meaningful restriction they've suggested.

 

[TexasChick123]

Well, there’s a big “finance event” on 4/26 where member accounting will be closed for 4 hours. Let’s see what announcements roll out after that event. Price per point increase on RIV? Price per point increase announced at the other resorts? Another restriction? A new method to “qualify points”? Nothing at all to the public? I’ll be very interested to see if anything of note comes out after this event.

 

[skier_pete]

The more I think about it, the more I think they will set up a "make whole" option, but ONLY once a resort is sold out. Disney is all about differentiating direct from resale. Once Riviera is sold out, they will want to keep the resale prices up. So I could see them selling a "make hole" for say $30 a point. This keeps Riviera prices above the least popular resorts, and at a high enough price that it still makes direct a desirable purchase.

 

[TexasChick123]

The more I think about it, the more I think they will set up a "make whole" option, but ONLY once a resort is sold out. Disney is all about differentiating direct from resale. Once Riviera is sold out, they will want to keep the resale prices up. So I could see them selling a "make hole" for say $30 a point. This keeps Riviera prices above the least popular resorts, and at a high enough price that it still makes direct a desirable purchase.

I think like all things with Disney, they’ll start low and increase over time. It’ll start with say $10pp to get the first ppl to add it. Then, it’ll be $15pp, and so on.

Another route they may take is charging a booking fee for resorts other than yours at 7-months. You go through the same process as before, but when you click to book, you have to pay $200 or something. Both of these methods are used with different timeshares. I have no doubt that they’re trying to figure out which one would be the most lucrative long-term. If they price them per point, that is expensive and will turn many away. If they just do it as a “booking fee for non-home resorts”, then what’s another $200 for a Disney trip? They can keep collecting $200 here and $200 there every time you book elsewhere. It’ll add up to a lot of money over time. Also, it’s more enticing to know you can use it “as needed” versus coughing up all that money upfront.

The fact that they haven’t announced their plan to lessen the restrictions blow is pretty crazy to me. It would definitely drive direct sales from quite a few current owners. We’ll all see before too long what the plan is or if there is one at all.

 

[Madame]

I still don’t understand how adding RIV to the club with the restriction that new resorts be run essentially similar to existing resorts would work if they were to go the route of adding fees and up charges. Seriously confused as to how all this would be legal.

 

[ELMC]

People buy this thinking they will want to use it for 50 years. The vast majority sell well before then according to Disney (something I don't think they expected back in the early '90s).

They'll charge a fee for you to get "complete direct benefits". The question is how high will the fee be... it's not going to be nominal. Now that they've decided to really get involved in the resale market, it's only going to get more interesting. I think of almost every other arena of goods and services and it sorta blows my mind that they now want to figure out how to get profit. The resort restriction is certainly the most meaningful restriction they've suggested.

Other timeshare systems do this and it would be a great way for Disney to get a piece of every resale transaction that takes place. This might be a topic for another thread, but how much would people pay per point to fully qualify their resale points?

 

[Mousewerks]

To be honest, I don't need to buy into Riviera to stay there provided there is availability. Thus prices for a resale would have to drop below $80/point for me to be interested in picking up a Riviera resale. If I did get one though, I would only use it to stay at Riviera so the restrictions on the resale don't bother me and I wouldn't be looking to re-qualify my points. I personally think they need to be ridiculed for placing restrictions on resales at this point. It's putting a band-aid on a deep flesh wound. The problem is that Disney has sold too many small contracts, thereby restricting those contracts to studios and artificially creating problems of direct points not being able to book at their home resorts.

 

[DougEMG]

I'm not sure where you think I am wrong because you basically agreed with me.

Where I think everyone gets a little 'wrapped around the axle' here is conflating a DVC contract with the person who owns the contract. If you treat a DVC contract as a 'block' for instance, then you can see where the blocks fit, how big the blocks are and what characteristics the blocks have. Thus, the main problem is Disney selling small contracts, ie. small blocks. These small blocks may be just the size of a studio reservation for 3 days. So you can see then that it takes many more of these blocks to fill up the 'bucket' of a studio room at (pick your resort). If Disney had a minimum purchase of 500 points, we would not be having this conversation. There would be far fewer contracts competing for a room. Conversely, it is in the resort's best interest to be as full as possible for as long as possible. That's how they make money. So Disney tries to manage that tension by setting a minimum purchase level.

What we are discussing here is what is the percentage of blocks being labeled as 'unable to be traded' vs ''able to be traded'. At the extreme left end, the percentage is 100%. That is, every contract has been labeled 'unable'. At that point, what will all the points in all the contracts be able to acquire? All the contracts will acquire all the rooms available to book. This does NOT mean that an individual owner will be able to get their preferred room. If all the contracts were small blocks, not everyone will be able to get what they desire. At the extreme right end, there are no blocks labeled 'unable'. THERE MAY STILL BE OWNERS UNABLE to BOOK THEIR PREFERRED STAY because their block size is not big enough (i.e. move up in room cost). This problem means that Disney has erred in managing the tension for booking that resort.

Now what we are discussing is the middle somewhere. I think what @DougEMG pointed out is why I believe the price of a resale point at Riviera will drop to at least SSR level and probably very much lower as this reality sets in. I also believe that there will be few resale contracts available, relatively speaking, which will help buoy the price of a resale Riviera (or Reflections for that matter) point. I believe the percentage of blocks being labeled 'unable' will be low, probably no more than 20%. It will also be interesting to see how long it takes Riviera to sell out.

I've read in multiple places that the average owner holds onto their contract for 8-10 years. If that is true, then I think the block of owners unable to trade out could be a lot higher than 20% eventually. Now maybe DVC will look at allowing people to upgrade their contract to full trading for a special price which could help somewhat. The problem though is that people mostly buy resale for the cost savings, so they probably aren't going to want to spend additional money to trade around, otherwise you might as well of bought direct.

If I was a paranoid person that thought corporations were always out to screw us over, I might think that Disney likes and wants to sell small contracts, and combining that with restricting trading is going to make a win-win for them.

1. Selling small contracts allows them to charge more per point but keep the overall price within people's comfort zone.
2. Allowing no trading out combined with small contracts, will cause some people to be unable to use their points, causing an increase in breakage and hence more profit for DVC.

The one positive for the Riviera is that they didn't include those point hog bungalows and cabins at POLY and CCR.

 

[ELMC]

I've read in multiple places that the average owner holds onto their contract for 8-10 years. If that is true, then I think the block of owners unable to trade out could be a lot higher than 20% eventually. Now maybe DVC will look at allowing people to upgrade their contract to full trading for a special price which could help somewhat. The problem though is that people mostly buy resale for the cost savings, so they probably aren't going to want to spend additional money to trade around, otherwise you might as well of bought direct.

If I was a paranoid person that thought corporations were always out to screw us over, I might think that Disney likes and wants to sell small contracts, and combining that with restricting trading is going to make a win-win for them.

1. Selling small contracts allows them to charge more per point but keep the overall price within people's comfort zone.
2. Allowing no trading out combined with small contracts, will cause some people to be unable to use their points, causing an increase in breakage and hence more profit for DVC.

The one positive for the Riviera is that they didn't include those point hog bungalows and cabins at POLY and CCR.

One might even be so bold as to say that they were looking out for the consumer by producing a more balanced resort and point chart...

 

[kboo]

I don’t think @DougEMG is paranoid at all...

In other news: I changed my vote. In the Disney bubble, blinded by pixie dust, took the tour, ate some ice cream, bought some points. Now I need to go update my signature.

 

[DduzDis]

I don’t think @DougEMG is paranoid at all...

In other news: I changed my vote. In the Disney bubble, blinded by pixie dust, took the tour, ate some ice cream, bought some points. Now I need to go update my signature.

I wondered if this would be the case. Congratulations!

 

[Mousewerks]

I've read in multiple places that the average owner holds onto their contract for 8-10 years. If that is true, then I think the block of owners unable to trade out could be a lot higher than 20% eventually.

That may be, in which case the price of Riviera resale will fall which is a win for savvy DVC members like we are..

If I was a paranoid person that thought corporations were always out to screw us over, I might think that Disney likes and wants to sell small contracts, and combining that with restricting trading is going to make a win-win for them.

1. Selling small contracts allows them to charge more per point but keep the overall price within people's comfort zone.
2. Allowing no trading out combined with small contracts, will cause some people to be unable to use their points, causing an increase in breakage and hence more profit for DVC.

The one positive for the Riviera is that they didn't include those point hog bungalows and cabins at POLY and CCR.

One nit.. I don't think people unable to use their points leads to breakage. I thought breakage was when a room goes unused under 60 days.... As far as I know, people unable to use their points just take a loss in use value (which is expensive of course).

 

[kboo]

I wondered if this would be the case. Congratulations!

Thanks! I’d been watching for a BLT resale to add on to our current BLT points but the price difference didn’t make it appealing. But the RIV points should be fine for getting BLT LV if we want a longer stay, or we can do a split stay with BLT and RIV if we can’t. And frankly by the time we are probably wanting to use our RIV points somewhere else, we’ll be done with strollers and have different considerations. (PS: SW:GE looks huge from Slinky Dog)

I have a feeling we are going to like RIV even more than VGF, currently our family’s favorite resort.

If most RIV buyers now decide they want to be done with RIV in 8-10 years, I could see a lot of them renting their points rather than reselling, unless they’re dealing with a situation where they really need a lump sum immediately.

 

[DduzDis]

I have a feeling we are going to like RIV even more than VGF, currently our family’s favorite resort.

That's awesome. We love our BLT, but are also really looking forward to using our BWV. It's great to have home resort advantage in two park areas.

(PS: SW:GE looks huge from Slinky Dog)

We can't wait! I know I don't have to tell you to enjoy the rest of your trip, but enjoy the rest of your trip!!