Point Chart preferences, if they ever adjust for units...

[havoc315]

I am wondering if anyone has ever tried to figure out whether it is even possible to change the charts to stay point neutral...which is required..and achieve a more value based cost for 1 bedrooms?

It’d be pretty cool to see how it might work.

Of course it’s possible, just need an actuary with a good spreadsheet to figure out the exact math.

 

[Sandisw]

Of course it’s possible, just need an actuary with a good spreadsheet to figure out the exact math.

I’d love to see what the actual differences would be.

 

[havoc315]

I’d love to see what the actual differences would be.

My difficulty with the math is I’m not clear as to how they calculate total points when it comes to lockoffs.
But, for example, Assuming you’re only changing the values for studios and 1 BRs, if a resort has 3 studios for every 2 one-bedrooms...
Then if you increased the nightly cost of a studio by 2 points, you’d be able to reduce the 1 BR by 3 points.
so using the Riviera chart as an example... I see a random summer weeknight is 20 points for studio and 40 points for 1 BR.
I don’t know the room allotment at Riviera but if it was the 3:2 example, then a studio could increase to 22 points, bringing 1 BR down to 37. Or studio up to 24, with 1 BR down to 34.
So imagine... studio 24 per night, 1 br at 34 per night, 2 br at 54 per night.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[sethschroeder]

(or pay a bit more)

Thats how I answered including the taking advantage of bigger rooms.

I could see paying that extra to get in to the 1BR normally. As it stands on couples trips I will stick to studios or tower studios more often.

 

[RoseGold]

I own SSR and Poly. I don’t really care about the SSR chart, and they can’t really change the Poly chart much.

I like the low demand for relatively high priced 1BR, and it’s why DVC and SAP in general works for me. In a more balanced chart where 1BR books evenly, studios would have close to1BR expensive, and I don’t see that happening.

 

[Sandisw]

My difficulty with the math is I’m not clear as to how they calculate total points when it comes to lockoffs.
But, for example, Assuming you’re only changing the values for studios and 1 BRs, if a resort has 3 studios for every 2 one-bedrooms...
Then if you increased the nightly cost of a studio by 2 points, you’d be able to reduce the 1 BR by 3 points.
so using the Riviera chart as an example... I see a random summer weeknight is 20 points for studio and 40 points for 1 BR.
I don’t know the room allotment at Riviera but if it was the 3:2 example, then a studio could increase to 22 points, bringing 1 BR down to 37. Or studio up to 24, with 1 BR down to 34.
So imagine... studio 24 per night, 1 br at 34 per night, 2 br at 54 per night.

I believe they use a base year that includes the maximum number of weekends and the points charts are built around the 2 bedrooms, not the studio and 1 bedroom.

However, what is not clear is how much they can include for the lock premium which is allowed..

There are also some who are not sure that points can go between room sizes...although to me it appears units can be adjusted and some units include multiple rooms,

 

[CarolMN]

I believe they use a base year that includes the maximum number of weekends and the points charts are built around the 2 bedrooms, not the studio and 1 bedroom.

This is my understanding as well. The lock off units are counted as 2 bedrooms and you must use a base year to do the calculation.

However, what is not clear is how much they can include for the lock premium which is allowed....]There are also some who are not sure that points can go between room sizes...although to me it appears units can be adjusted and some units include multiple rooms,

I'm not sure, either. I tend to believe shifting points between room sizes is not allowed, and that, as well as other POS provisions, serves as a limit to lockoff premium increases.

@drusba wrote a very good explanation of why she believes the POS does not permit such shifting. It's worth repeating.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/f...the-point-charts.3811362/page-2#post-62278348

 

[havoc315]

I believe they use a base year that includes the maximum number of weekends and the points charts are built around the 2 bedrooms, not the studio and 1 bedroom.

However, what is not clear is how much they can include for the lock premium which is allowed..

There are also some who are not sure that points can go between room sizes...although to me it appears units can be adjusted and some units include multiple rooms,

The Riviera contract clearly allows it. Says they can adjust the point chart based on supply and demand, and no limitation to just seasonality. More vague in older contracts.

 

[havoc315]

I own SSR and Poly. I don’t really care about the SSR chart, and they can’t really change the Poly chart much.

I like the low demand for relatively high priced 1BR, and it’s why DVC and SAP in general works for me. In a more balanced chart where 1BR books evenly, studios would have close to1BR expensive, and I don’t see that happening.

There would still be a large gap between studio and 1 bedroom. All the extra space, kitchen, laundry...
But demand is low when they are priced 110% of studios.
If the gap closed too much... for example a studio at 26 points per night, and 1 bedroom at 30... The problem would reverse, with excess demand for 1 bedrooms.

 

[AliceIn]

I think it varies considerably depending on resort. PVB, for example - there are far more studios than bungalows. If you take the average cost per year for a week, it costs six times as much to stay in a bungalow for a week than it does to stay in a studio. For Poly, I think it would drive people away from that resort.

 

[Heather07438]

I was working on something similar for point chart analysis (2021 vs. forthcoming 2022) and thought I'd share

if you ignore seasonal variability and view / category to only focus on room sizes, you can look up the number of each dedicated villa size (except two bedroom = dedicate + lock-off) at each resort (I use @Micah008's chart) and calculate how to keep the resort balanced based on changes per villa size

why dedicated? for Base Year point chart analysis, the POS states two bedroom lock-offs are to be treated as two bedrooms not their component deluxe studio and one bedrooms

however, this analysis ignores the requirement for points within a unit to be balanced (however you want to define a unit) but it's still fun to look at

table format

unit type​

# unit type​

each row: change unit A by 1 point, change unit B by X points​

AKV example
AKV has 46 dedicated deluxe studios, 390 dedicate + lock-off two bedrooms, and 22 three bedrooms; to be balanced, if you change deluxe studios by 1 point you must ...

1. change two bedrooms by 0.12 points in the opposite direction
2. change three bedrooms by 2.09 points in the opposite direction
3. some combination of 1 and 2

AKV (Jambo + Kidani)

ds​	2b​	3b​
46​	390​	22​
-1​	0.12​	2.09​
8.48​	-1​	17.73​
0.48​	0.06​	-1​

BLT

2b​	3b​
267​	14​
-1​	19.07​
0.05​	-1​

BCV

ds	1b	2b
36​	20​	152​
-1​	1.8​	0.24​
0.56​	-1​	0.13​
4.22​	7.6​	-1​

BWV

ds	1b	2b	3b
97​	130​	148​	7​
-1​	0.75​	0.66​	13.86​
1.34​	-1​	0.88​	18.57​
1.53​	1.14​	-1​	21.14​
0.07​	0.05​	0.05​	-1​

BRV

ds	1b	2b
20​	27​	99​
-1​	0.74​	0.2​
1.35​	-1​	0.27​
4.95​	3.67​	-1​

CCV

ds	1b	2b	3b	cabin
42​	20​	92​	4​	26​
-1​	2.1​	0.46​	10.5​	1.62​
0.48​	-1​	0.22​	5​	0.77​
2.19​	4.6​	-1​	23​	3.54​
0.1​	0.2​	0.04​	-1​	0.15​
0.62​	1.3​	0.28​	6.5​	-1​

OKW

2b	3b
504​	27​
-1​	18.67​
0.05​	-1​

PVB

ds	bungalow
360​	20​
-1​	18​
0.06​	-1​

RVA

ts	ds	1b	2b	3b
24​	38​	29​	238​	12​
-1​	0.63​	0.83​	0.1​	2​
1.58​	-1​	1.31​	0.16​	3.17​
1.21​	0.76​	-1​	0.12​	2.42​
9.92​	6.26​	8.21​	-1​	19.83​
0.5​	0.32​	0.41​	0.05​	-1​

SSR

2b	3b	treehouse
792​	36​	60​
-1​	22​	13.2​
0.05​	-1​	0.6​
0.08​	1.67​	-1​

VGF

2b	3b
94​	6​
-1​	15.67​
0.06​	-1​

if you want to throw view / category into the mix, the table gets a bit more complicated; here is one example

RVA by view

ts	dss	dsp	1bs	1bp	1bs	2bp	3b
24​	9​	29​	7​	22​	86​	152​	12​
-1​	2.67​	0.83​	3.43​	1.09​	0.28​	0.16​	2​
0.38​	-1​	0.31​	1.29​	0.41​	0.1​	0.06​	0.75​
1.21​	3.22​	-1​	4.14​	1.32​	0.34​	0.19​	2.42​
0.29​	0.78​	0.24​	-1​	0.32​	0.08​	0.05​	0.58​
0.92​	2.44​	0.76​	3.14​	-1​	0.26​	0.14​	1.83​
3.58​	9.56​	2.97​	12.29​	3.91​	-1​	0.57​	7.17​
6.33​	16.89​	5.24​	21.71​	6.91​	1.77​	-1​	12.67​
0.5​	1.33​	0.41​	1.71​	0.55​	0.14​	0.08​	-1​

why didn't I list deluxe studios or one bedrooms for several properties? only five Walt Disney World DVC resorts have dedicated deluxe studios and one bedrooms (BCV, BWV, BRV, CCV, and RVA); of those, the ratio of deluxe studio : one bedroom ranges from 2.1 : 1 at CCV to 1 : 1.3 at BWV; so ...

1. CCV: increase deluxe studios by 2.1 points and decrease one bedrooms by 1 point
2. BWV: increase deluxe studios by 1 point and decrease one bedrooms by 1.3 points

if a DVC resort does not have dedicated deluxe studios and / or one bedrooms, they don't play into the Base Year point chart analysis so aren't restricted by that part of the POS

for example: BLT deluxe studios and one bedrooms could be 400 points and 800 points per night and the Base Year point chart analysis would still be valid if the two bedroom and three bedroom units are priced appropriately (easiest would be not to change 2b + 3b); this is because BLT has no dedicated deluxe studios or one bedrooms that are part of the Base Year point chart calculation; other parts of the POS may limit the ability for DVC to increase to deluxe studios and one bedrooms (like maximum reallocation) but not the Base Year analysis

Nice. In the last RVA table the 3rd from right column says 1bs, I think you meant 2bs there.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I think it varies considerably depending on resort. PVB, for example - there are far more studios than bungalows. If you take the average cost per year for a week, it costs six times as much to stay in a bungalow for a week than it does to stay in a studio. For Poly, I think it would drive people away from that resort.

They could raise the number of points by one for every studio for every season at Polynesian and reduce the nightly cost for the bungalows by about 18 points a night or more. It might make the bungalows booked more often.

 

[DebbieB]

I travel with 1 or 2 friends, I own at BWV. Moving from a studio to a 1 bedroom gives 1 less sleeping surface. I would not be happy with the move unless they add the pull down bed or sleeper chair to 1 bedrooms.

 

[AliceIn]

They could raise the number of points by one for every studio for every season at Polynesian and reduce the nightly cost for the bungalows by about 18 points a night or more. It might make the bungalows booked more often.

The cost for the bungalows are still in the 1000 and up range per week. I don't think 100 points off will sway that many people, especially when the bungalow is only 2 bedrooms that accommodates 8 people. The 2 bedrooms at most other resorts accommodate 9. The bungalows are priced in the same category as the grand villas that sleep 12 - it's actually about the same cost as a grand villa at the Grand Floridian. That's why those bungalows are empty most of the time. They are a bad value, and they don't offer much for the price they want. DVC made a big mistake in building them.

I would think the members of the Poly HOA would likely object to subsidizing the bungalows by increasing costs to the studios. I think the demographic for Poly buyers doesn't include those wanting huge spaces. If they did, they would buy elsewhere.

 

[Deb & Bill]

The cost for the bungalows are still in the 1000 and up range per week. I don't think 100 points off will sway that many people, especially when the bungalow is only 2 bedrooms that accommodates 8 people. The 2 bedrooms at most other resorts accommodate 9. The bungalows are priced in the same category as the grand villas that sleep 12 - it's actually about the same cost as a grand villa at the Grand Floridian. That's why those bungalows are empty most of the time. They are a bad value, and they don't offer much for the price they want. DVC made a big mistake in building them.

I would think the members of the Poly HOA would likely object to subsidizing the bungalows by increasing costs to the studios. I think the demographic for Poly buyers doesn't include those wanting huge spaces. If they did, they would buy elsewhere.

When you compare bungalows to Cascade Cabins, the reduction by 126 points for a week would make them comparable. One point up or down isn't that much. It happens all the time.

 

[AliceIn]

When you compare bungalows to Cascade Cabins, the reduction by 126 points for a week would make them comparable. One point up or down isn't that much. It happens all the time.

But isn't that the same bad deal? 2 bedrooms for 8 people instead of a Grand Villa?

 

[havoc315]

From what I have seen, they buy those points resale, so no money for Disney there. With the economy being what it is, and recovery a long way off, I just don’t see them doing anything that will mean fewer people in the parks, shops, and restaurants. It may be a different P&L for Disney, but they are hurting for revenue.

Disney benefits even when people buy resale points. Though they obviously benefit far more by direct point sales.
But even buying resale:

More point sales = more people coming to Disney = more ticket sales, more food sales, etc.
Strong resale demand = increasing prices for resale = ability to increase prices of direct and/or sell more direct.

By that last point... imagine Direct prices are $190 per point and resale is $145 per point.
But you get a spike in resale demand, drives resale price up to $170. Next interested buyer sees that direct is now only $20 more than resale... they might not have been willing to pay $45 extra for a blue card, but they are willing to pay $20.

So any increase in demand for points, ultimately benefits Disney.

 

[havoc315]

The cost for the bungalows are still in the 1000 and up range per week. I don't think 100 points off will sway that many people, especially when the bungalow is only 2 bedrooms that accommodates 8 people. The 2 bedrooms at most other resorts accommodate 9. The bungalows are priced in the same category as the grand villas that sleep 12 - it's actually about the same cost as a grand villa at the Grand Floridian. That's why those bungalows are empty most of the time. They are a bad value, and they don't offer much for the price they want. DVC made a big mistake in building them.

I would think the members of the Poly HOA would likely object to subsidizing the bungalows by increasing costs to the studios. I think the demographic for Poly buyers doesn't include those wanting huge spaces. If they did, they would buy elsewhere.

1. I’m sure some Poly buyers are drawn in because of the Bungalows.
2. Cut the price of the Bungalows, even by a little, they will get more use and more people drawn in for them.
3. for example, if the Bungalows were cut from 1000 for a week (as some current off season weeks) down to 900.... that’s a huge difference. An owner with 300 points can now get a week every 3 years with banking and borrowing (assuming 100% borrowing returns). Or 2 owners with 200 points each could combine and get it with banking and borrowing in under 3 years.
so that drop from 1000 to 900 can actually stimulate a lot of demand.

 

[havoc315]

But isn't that the same bad deal? 2 bedrooms for 8 people instead of a Grand Villa?

People have values beyond the number of sleep surfaces. The cabins bring their own unique advantages.. a private cabin on the water with its own hot tub. If you only have 4-8 people, you might easily prefer the cabin over a grand villa.