Point Bloat/Inflation?

[gmflash88]

I started the "2042 Resale Value" thread that explains what I'm trying to accomplish in my research before we decide to buy into DVC but am wondering if someone can give me some insight as to what they've seen, generally speaking, on the increase of point costs over the years? I'm fully aware that I can buy additional points (once per year at a cap of 24 right?) if needed for a specific vacation and am also up to speed on banking/borrowing.

What I need is to establish a baseline of how many points get me a room (it'd be a mix of studios and 1bd) during my future stays. The same 125pts today will not be the "same" 125pts in 3/5/10 years. I've found compounded average growth rates on the maintenance fees, but what about the point values? 3-4% inflationary?

Thanks all!

 

[ffindis]

The total number of points at a resort cannot change. SO there is no point inflation. However DIsney can adjust the points from villas and seasons. SO while there can be changes, there cannot be inflation. I hope this helps and good luck with you DVC search!

 

[gmflash88]

The total number of points at a resort cannot change. SO there is no point inflation. However DIsney can adjust the points from villas and seasons. SO while there can be changes, there cannot be inflation. I hope this helps and good luck with you DVC search!

No, that I get. What I mean is how many points it takes to rent a room. If a 1bd is 20pts a night now (making this up), it’s assuredly not going to be 20pts in 10yrs. I’m trying to come up with a calculation of what I can roughly expect.
Thank you for your reply!

 

[rich dream vacations]

The total number of points at a resort cannot change. SO there is no point inflation. However DIsney can adjust the points from villas and seasons. SO while there can be changes, there cannot be inflation. I hope this helps and good luck with you DVC search!

There is, however, some speculation amongst this site that DVD will raise the points per night for studios slightly and lower them for cabins, 3BD, 2BD etc... as the number of small contract (200 its or less) owners increases and studio accommodations become more scarce. Already difficult at most resorts to get studios at less than 7 months (this is why home resort selection has become part art form and part math equation)!

 

[JETSDAD]

No, that I get. What I mean is how many points it takes to rent a room. If a 1bd is 20pts a night now (making this up), it’s assuredly not going to be 20pts in 10yrs. I’m trying to come up with a calculation of what I can roughly expect.
Thank you for your reply!

But that's exactly what they were saying about total points remaining the same. Aside from seasonal adjustments and possibly changes between room sizes, a room that costs 20 points this year will be 20 points in 10 years.

 

[Sandisw]

They can adjust across the chart but the total remains the same,

After I first joined in 2009, the weekends went down, but weekdays went up. As a weekend traveler, it worked in my favor...but for those doing only weekdays, it did not.

So, when looking at the charts, if you plan on buying enough for the highest season...not premier for holidays, you should be covered for any adjustments in the future.

That is what we did..of course, at the time, that is when we traveled, but now that I am retired, my points are going farther since I can go during the lower seasons.

 

[gmflash88]

Oh I get it. My apologies. I understand what you're saying now. So overall points must stay the same due to contracts, but seasons/room/day "rates" can shuffle some within the set amount of points.

Thanks everyone!

 

[zavandor]

There is a form of point inflation which happens when new resorts are built. If you look at the point charts for OKW, BCV or BWV you'll notice that the cost to stay there per night are, sometime a lot, lower that other resorts like VGF or Riviera. When Disney build a new resort they're free to set the point charts however they like and over time they have tried to set them as high as they though the market would accept.
A prime example is SSR. It has a similar location and amenities to OKW, but its point chart is a bit higher. For other resorts like VGF the higher point chart may be justified (at least in part) by a better location, more luxurious accommodation or special transport to the park(s).

This means that if you buy SSR points now and with those points you can book 10 nights at your home resort, when DVC will build a new resort at Disneyland, you might be able to book only 6 or 7 nights there due to the higher point charts. However you'll always be able to book 10 nights at your resort...

However, there can be seasonal changes, but those must (by law) balance out. If they increase a 1BR in December (for example), then they have to decrease a 1BR at another time (for example in the summer). This has happened for 2021.

There is much debate if Disney can:
- increase a room type (like a studio) and decrease a different room type (like a 2BR or a bungalow). This has happened in the past but was rolled back when they tried again in 2020 after a few people complained threatening legal action
- increase the lockoff premium: this is more difficult to explain in a few words.They tried to add points to the point charts without balance thanks to a loophole. This was rolled back too in 2020 after complaints.

If you want all the details about this and have a lot of spare time, you can read the full thread here.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Oh I get it. My apologies. I understand what you're saying now. So overall points must stay the same due to contracts, but seasons/room/day "rates" can shuffle some within the set amount of points.

Thanks everyone!

Exactly.

 

[sethschroeder]

I don't think its worth worrying about point increase decrease (except in the case of Fixed Week contracts - which you won't find resale and are only at CCV and RIV direct right now).

Why not worry about it? If it were to happen (and no way to accurately predict) then it likely is 1-2 points a night so we are talking about 7-14 points. This also doesn't account for possibly a decrease in point requirements that might always happen (remember DVC and Cash are not the same high seasons).

So for my example if you have 175 (since you said 1br/studio just guessing). If you had a 14 point delta in required points it would take 12 years of borrowing before you fully ran out (6 years if the 50% borrowing rule stays). If that happens you can always add on or just take a single year off.

 

[Breesus]

How are points per resort calculated? Let's just say SSR and GF were the exact same size resort with the same number of studios, 1 bedrooms, 2 bedrooms, and GV, how can disney charge more points for every room size than they would at SSR. I get the initial cost being more because of location, but does GF have more points than SSR in this scenario? It seems to me all studios should be the exact same point cost no matter where it is located. The "extra expense" for location should be in purchase price.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

How are points per resort calculated?

It's using the type of calculus that includes volumes of imaginary shapes in space.

Each new resort has been assigned new initial values. OKW and BWV are both crazy cheap because they were the originals. VGF, Poly and RIV are are high points because they were all created recently and Disney now now what a cash cow they have. CCV was kept in line with BRV (a 2042 resort) with the main inflationary pressure being building of cabin$$.

how can disney charge more points for every room size than they would at SSR

They do because they can.

I get the initial cost being more because of location, but does GF have more points than SSR in this scenario?

Yes.

Purchase price has also inflated over time. BWV at inception (1996) was ~$65 per point, at one of the best locations at WDW. In 2020 dollars, that's a wee over $100 ($106.22). But RIV inception price was $188. Pricing is a factor of time, not location.

 

[Breesus]

It's using the type of calculus that includes volumes of imaginary shapes in space.

Each new resort has been assigned new initial values. OKW and BWV are both crazy cheap because they were the originals. VGF, Poly and RIV are are high points because they were all created recently and Disney now now what a cash cow they have. CCV was kept in line with BRV (a 2042 resort) with the main inflationary pressure being building of cabin$$.



They do because they can.



Yes.

Purchase price has also inflated over time. BWV at inception (1996) was ~$65 per point, at one of the best locations at WDW. In 2020 dollars, that's a wee over $100 ($106.22). But RIV inception price was $188. Pricing is a factor of time, not location.
[/QUO

Thanks

 

[chalee94]

No, that I get. What I mean is how many points it takes to rent a room. If a 1bd is 20pts a night now (making this up), it’s assuredly not going to be 20pts in 10yrs. I’m trying to come up with a calculation of what I can roughly expect.
Thank you for your reply!

The total number of pts (including every villa for every night of the year) for each resort is fixed and cannot change.

Here's some history for you (for one of the most extreme changes):

If you wanted a 1BR at OKW for 7 nights (1 week) in May 1994, it would have cost 200 pts. If you wanted a 1BR at OKW for 7 nights in May 2021, it would cost 188 pts.

25+ years later and your pts still get you basically the same value - even a little better. How's that for no inflation?

OTOH, if you wanted a studio for 5 nights Sun-Thurs in early December, your 35 pt stay cost in 1994 has now increased by 43% to 50 pts. Weeknight stays have taken a hit...but if you just stayed 2 nights on a weekend in early December at OKW, your 34 pt stay in 1994 dropped a bit to 26 pts.

If you typically stay for 7 nights, I doubt you'll see any big changes (although early Dec is popular enough that it won't surprise me if they eventually do move it to a different season.)

Timesharing definitely involves a risk of change. But for the most part, if new buyers just buy a few extra (5-10%) - that should cover most of the small reallocations...

 

[Lorana]

BWV at inception (1996) was ~$65 per point,

How I wish I could have bought BWV then....

 

[striker1064]

(except in the case of Fixed Week contracts - which you won't find resale and are only at CCV and RIV direct right now).

I know this isn't what this thread is about but minor correction, FW contracts do pop up on resale from time to time. One site had two FW PVB Christmas week for a while, and someone here bought it as it's in a past ROFR thread.

FW are deeded, not a perk, and as such they follow the contract wherever it goes. There just aren't very many of them.

 

[sethschroeder]

I know this isn't what this thread is about but minor correction, FW contracts do pop up on resale from time to time. One site had two FW PVB Christmas week for a while, and someone here bought it as it's in a past ROFR thread.

FW are deeded, not a perk, and as such they follow the contract wherever it goes. There just aren't very many of them.

Yes you are right.

I guess my mind was more in the mindset of what someone could normally just buy.

If you were really set on one of the fixed weeks for the resorts where it was offered you could be awaiting for years before the specific week you want comes up.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

For instance, that epic Week 52 GV Aulani contract that was out there for a while!

 

[sethschroeder]

For instance, that epic Week 52 GV Aulani contract that was out there for a while!

How big was it?

 

[RoseGold]

There's a really cool chart posted here in the last couple weeks that shows the power of the point bloat on value. RIV would literally have to be free to outperform the old charts.

That said, SSR points work everywhere but RIV...