please help me decide on DVC purchase

I don't know how you can ignore purchase price per point. That is such a big part of the equation. Yes after you have outlaid the cash upfront it comes down to the point charts and the dues.

Also if making these examples and paying the points why are you not showing examples using the home resort advantage?

All of your examples are using the dues of that said resort.

Your examples really should be the dues of your resort (BLT $8.02) multiplied by the cost of the room you would more likely to grab at 7 months or if your an owner the rooms that you have the first chance at grabbing.

As a BLT owner I'm not grabbing a Lake view that has quite the supply and instead would be grabbing a standard 1 br for 226 and costing $1,812.52 or a theme park for 305 costing $2,446.61

For Riviera use your BLT to stay at the preferred 1 BR meaning $8.02 x 328 = $2,630.56 but if I am an owner I'm taking advantage of the cheaper room so I would take my dues of $9.06 and multiply by the standard 1 BR of 259 costing $2,346.54

Likewise for AKL your BLT dues for a savannah 1 BR come out to $1,884.70 but as an owner there is a chance for a value 1 BR at $9.64 x 144 points which ends up costing $1,388.16

For the purposes of the calculation, the buy in price is a diminishing price per point per year. If I pay $100 for 40 years, every year is $2.50. So, year 1, it's $2.50, whereas my original maintenance fee was around $5, so it was 1/3 the price of the stay. Now, it's $2.50 and a maintenance fee of $8, which is about 20%. By the time I'm at 40 years, the $2.50 will still be $2.50, but the maintenance fee will be around $100 per point, making the buy in a diminutive 2.4% of the cost of that annual vacation stay. So, the buy in price is immaterial in the long term when compared with the maintenance fee and point chart. If you can afford to buy it, do the math and see how little paying an extra $1 or $5 per point over 40-50 years is on a yearly basis!

I attempted to present a likely scenario with comparable rooms across multiple resorts. You are assuming that people are always looking for the cheapest rooms. Personally, my wife and I NEVER stay in standard view rooms, even when we can get them. And, in some resorts, the number of standard resort rooms is small, and the competition large, such that you cannot regularly get them even at 11 months. One can play with these numbers all they want, but the overall issue is that some resorts have higher point charts, that, when combined with the maintenance fees, yield significantly more expensive stays. If you did the same calculation as I did, but used the cheapest rooms, you'd see that the only difference between your calculation and mine is that there's an across the board savings, but the resorts will pretty much stay in the same order of "costliness".
 










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