Please Explain Summer Crowds

[Frozen2014]

I'm hoping to plan a trip for next summer. (As per my other post), our ideal time is the week before labor day, but at the same time, my DD7 and my very favorite ride at Disney World was Haunted Mansion so I want to catch it (even if just one day of our trip). After our Disney World trip, she asked for months "When can we go to Monsters Again?" (that's what she called Haunted Mansion).

Splash is another "must ride" for my DS but I assume this one doesn't shut down in the hot summer months.

I'm a bit confused with the predicted summer crowd calendar. Wondering if someone can explain.
In itispacked.com at the link: http://www.isitpacked.com/disneyland-crowd-forecast-predictor-calendar/ ...this links to July so need to advance to August
(I'm looking at crowd prediction for Aug 2016. We'd be going Aug 2017 but I assume it's similar)

It marks the crowds as:

• 1st - 2nd week of August (Mon Aug 1 - Sun Aug 14) as "Yes, It's Packed"
• 3rd week of August (Mon Aug 15 - Sat Aug 20 ) as "Hey, It's Alright"
• 4th week of August (Mon Aug 22 - Fri Aug 26) as "Yes, It's Packed"
• 5th week of August (Mon Aug 29 - Thurs Aug 1) as "Hey, It's Alright"

Why is mid August (i.e. 3rd week), not crazy packed? Although last week of the summer is ideal, this might be a better option for us if we want to catch Haunted Mansion. Can someone explain? I know there is a concept of "annual block outs" which is possibly related but I don't really get what that means.

PS - There are no days marked as "Forget About It", which is good.
PPS - I'm guessing another advantage of the week before labor day is that that hotels are probably cheaper (even offsite)

 

[MrInfinity]

I would not put too much weight on these prediction sites. In particular I would not base your vacation spend on them. For example, this site showed July 4 as "hey it's alright" when I've been watching the wait times, and the July 4 weekend was busier than the following week. So these are just guesses. It would be better to pick based around what works for you and your work and school schedules. In August, I would plan on it to be busy whether you pick the 3rd or the 4th week, and your selection between the two is not going to mean the difference between it feeling comfortable vs packed, or even super packed vs slightly less packed. It's just gonna be busy and it's splitting hairs to speculate that one week will be significantly less crowded.

With only 4 levels of granularity in their grading system, do not be accept that any of these weeks will fall into the 2nd quarter (out of 4) of "busy-ness" since it's summer.

Haunted Mansion... You will have absolutely no problem getting on the Haunted Mansion or Splash Mountain. Splash will build to over an hour wait during the day, but if it's important just do it early and pull a FastPass. Easy. You should be able to ride these many times in a day no matter which week you pick. These are conveniently in one area of the park, so there's not even a lot of walking to pull a FastPass to Splash then ride the Mansion while you're waiting for that time slot. I think if it's your goal, it would be perfectly reasonable to pull a FP to Splash, ride Splash, then go to the HM while you wait, ride that twice back to back, then get back to your Splash FP and ride that again, easily getting 2 rides on each w/in the first hour and a half. Then you grab another FP to Splash which would be for later in the day, or maybe you're Splashed out by that time and you go pull one to something else.

 

[mom2rtk]

Generally I find attendance variances on the DLR side of things are often tied to something in the AP blockout dates or in conventions or special events occurring in and around the parks. Rule those out, then go with what works best for you.

 

[Frozen2014]

I would not put too much weight on these prediction sites. In particular I would not base your vacation spend on them. For example, this site showed July 4 as "hey it's alright" when I've been watching the wait times, and the July 4 weekend was busier than the following week. So these are just guesses. It would be better to pick based around what works for you and your work and school schedules. In August, I would plan on it to be busy whether you pick the 3rd or the 4th week, and your selection between the two is not going to mean the difference between it feeling comfortable vs packed, or even super packed vs slightly less packed. It's just gonna be busy and it's splitting hairs to speculate that one week will be significantly less crowded.

Haunted Mansion... You will have absolutely no problem getting on the Haunted Mansion or Splash Mountain. Splash will build to over an hour wait during the day, but if it's important just do it early and pull a FastPass. Easy. You should be able to ride these many times in a day no matter which week you pick. These are conveniently in one area of the park, so there's not even a lot of walking to pull a FastPass to Splash then ride the Mansion while you're waiting for that time slot. I think if it's your goal, it would be perfectly reasonable to pull a FP to Splash, ride Splash, then go to the HM while you wait, ride that twice back to back, then get back to your Splash FP and ride that again, easily getting 2 rides on each w/in the first hour and a half. Then you grab another FP to Splash which would be for later in the day, or maybe you're Splashed out by that time and you go pull one to something else.

Thanks for the feedback. Too bad as I was hoping these would be helpful in selecting which week (since we can pull our kids out of camp and then put them back, but I need to know which weeks).

I think you misunderstood my comment about "getting on Haunted Mansion or Splash Mountain". Our ideal week to come is the week before Labor Day. But if we come that week, it seems like it is 95% chance that Haunted Mansion will be closed due to the Halloween overlay. And of course we'll be super happy to be at DL, but it will be a disappointment for DD and I missing our favorite ride. So we want at least one day where the ride is open. We would also spend a few days in CA so we are a bit flexible if we needed to put a DL day at the start of our trip to ensure we get there at least one day when it is opened.

DS's favorite is Splash...but I am making the assumption that it remains opened during the summer months.

 

[Frozen2014]

Generally I find attendance variances on the DLR side of things are often tied to something in the AP blockout dates or in conventions or special events occurring in and around the parks. Rule those out, then go with what works best for you.

How do I tell these? Obviously then if a block out, then less crowds since locals won't be coming during that time. And I think there are different kinds of block outs, right? So not clear on what these mean.

 

[MrInfinity]

I think you misunderstood my comment about "getting on Haunted Mansion or Splash Mountain". Our ideal week to come is the week before Labor Day. But if we come that week, it seems like it is 95% chance that Haunted Mansion will be closed due to the Halloween overlay. And of course we'll be super happy to be at DL, but it will be a disappointment for DD and I missing our favorite ride. So we want at least one day where the ride is open. We would also spend a few days in CA so we are a bit flexible if we needed to put a DL day at the start of our trip to ensure we get there at least one day when it is opened.

Yeah, I thought you were talking about crowd-wise... there are definitely ppl out here who track when the outage tends to occur for the overlay. That would be a big factor for me too if we were going near a time when it might be closed!

EDIT: Googling around, it looks like the typical time to close is the Monday before Labor Day. So if that holds true, then either of your first two choices (3rd, 4th week) should be good. However, this would steer me toward the 3rd week for peace of mind.

 

[Imdboss]

As a pp stated I wouldn't put too much stalk in the crowd prediction websites unless it was showing one week as miserably packed and the next a ghost town (which we all know doesn't happen). That being said the local AP holders are blocked out all summer until the second half of Aug, this year it's 8/22 they can get back in, some area schools are also back in session at this time. We went during this timeframe last year and found the crowd levels to be quite pleasant compared to our usual Oct trip. Weekends are noticeably busier so I would plan as many weekdays in the park as possible. Last year HM went down for its holiday overly on 8/24 I believe so keep that in mind with your planning since that seems like a "must" for you. We had upper 90s for temps so Splash was very popular but we just got a FP for it.

 

[mom2rtk]

How do I tell these? Obviously then if a block out, then less crowds since locals won't be coming during that time. And I think there are different kinds of block outs, right? So not clear on what these mean.

Just google "Disneyland annual pass blackout dates" and you'll find some calendars. In theory, it's better to go when AP's are blocked out. There are different levels of passes so you'd have to ask one of the locals which ones are most important (represent the most potential bodies). If some of the passes have been blacked out all summer then open back up sometime in August, you definitely don't want to go that first week the APs can go again. Some of them will likely be trying to get back again before school starts. If some schools start in August, that will have some impact as well.

Generally it's those times of transition in the AP calendar where a little information goes a long way. We ended up in DL on the last Saturday the park was open to AP holders before Christmas. Oops. That was ugly. So while we don't set our travel dates exclusively on the AP calendar, it's sure a big piece of the puzzle.

 

[SMD]

Generally APs are blocked when they're blocked because it will be crowded anyway. Plus many locals have the higher level APs that won't be blocked. Attendance has been growing and since the 60th it's been crowded practically every day. There just aren't consecutive days with low crowds anymore and the random dates with 40 minute waits for Space and under 15 minutes for POTC are hard to predict even the day before. If Disney comes up with a popular promotion post-60th, I'd expect it to be crowded. When they had limited time magic and the following year a popular social media promotion, people went to the park just to wait for a social media post. I could see that continue to happen as long as Disney continues to offer social media promotions.

 

[Disney Lvr of Old]

I am going 8/16-8/24 this year. I chose the dates partly because my son is on a 14 day trip to California right now with his Father (7/6-7/20) so wanted some down time between the trips but also because based on my research schools in LA and its environs are back in session and AP blackout remains in effect until 8/22. And for HM too!

I'm hoping for the best but planning for anything.

Black out dates are easy to find on the Disney website.

Good luck planning: I do agree with PP= go when it is best for you and plan accordingly.

 

[mom2rtk]

Generally APs are blocked when they're blocked because it will be crowded anyway. Plus many locals have the higher level APs that won't be blocked. Attendance has been growing and since the 60th it's been crowded practically every day. There just aren't consecutive days with low crowds anymore and the random dates with 40 minute waits for Space and under 15 minutes for POTC are hard to predict even the day before. If Disney comes up with a popular promotion post-60th, I'd expect it to be crowded. When they had limited time magic and the following year a popular social media promotion, people went to the park just to wait for a social media post. I could see that continue to happen as long as Disney continues to offer social media promotions.

See, that's what I'm always torn about. Do you go when it's expected to be so busy they need to block AP's? Or do you go when AP's are blocked and can't enter? So I mostly ignore that but pay very close attention to the transition times, like the final week before APs are blocked at Christmas (well, at least now I do ). Or the first week they are unblocked after a long period of time. Or the first time APs are unblocked after a big promotion or season begins.

Beyond that, I just try to maximize having as much of the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday timeframe I can.

 

[StageTek]

Why is mid August (i.e. 3rd week), not crazy packed? Although last week of the summer is ideal, this might be a better option for us if we want to catch Haunted Mansion. Can someone explain?

Typically people travel in July so by the 3rd week of August they are home.
Most colleges start in mid/late August. Many Orange County schools 1st quarter
starts around Aug 15-17 so locals slow down their visits. But they may make
the visit after Aug 20 when their black-out dates are lifted so end of Aug will
see a slight spike in attendance. Despite the itspacked crowd prediction my
experience is there won't be that much difference between Aug 14-18 and
Aug 21-25 but the week leading up to Labor Day does pick up. Still not as busy
as July...

 

[SMD]

There are still plenty of local schools that don't go back until after Labor Day. UCs, of which 100K undergrads are in So Cal don't go back until the last week of Sept. This year the AP blockouts end on 8/22. I'd expect it to be similar next year. Also in my experience the actually crush is only a day or 2. Then once schools go back you start to have the people who crowd into the parks around 3pm - 4pm for the first few weeks. And then Halloween starts and they all come back for Halloween. And then fall breaks start in Nor Cal and other states and there are several weeks where people come got that. Then the usual crowds as Halloween ends, and then Christmas starts.

 

[mpadilla89]

We went a week after labor day and HM was closed and DD was very upset since its her fav. but there was almost no crowds until about after 3pm everyride was basically a walk on but it was sprinkling in the moring and DCA was under construction for Cars land so im sure that helped with crowds and that was about 4 or 5 years back.

I agree with everyone to not plan just soley on when it says it will be less packed. Its DL its usually always packed and packed to sum might be an ok day to others. We went in December when the decorations where up and was predicted to be the least packed and it was super packed i guess everyone goes when it says its not packed making it more packed lol

Just take advantage of EMH/MM or be there at rope drop thats what we do and by the time the crowds start coming in we have done our must rides.

 

[Frozen2014]

Thanks for all the great replies. It sure is complicated with many factors that goes into the crowds. Sounds like overall, the 3rd week onward is better than July and early August.

Guess annual blockouts just balances it a bit more, but it seems like it would at least help during the week. Since we're coming as tourists, we'd come to the parks during the week.

The DL wait times in summer sound better than when we went to Disney World in October. It's not the actual wait that bothers me, but am a bit concerned in the heat. Are the line queues generally covered or are they out in the host sun?

 

[avalon451]

If you don't mind getting to the parks before opening, you can do pretty well regardless of the time of year. Be there at rope drop, or for Magic Morning at DL if you have it, and get tons done in the first hour. Then pull fastpasses for your favorite rides as they become available. If/when the crowds get bad midday, leave, go back to the hotel to swim/snack/rest, and come back later for parades, and the rides that typically don't have long lines.

As far as covered line queues, it really varies! A lot of them certainly do have you standing in sunlight, or partial shade, when the lines are long... but I can't think of many that I ride when the lines are more than 15-20 minutes. For example, I don't think I've ever done Indy standby. I either FP it or use single rider.

 

[Frozen2014]

Thanks for the tip about going rope drop and then evening. We'd probably want to get most of our day since we're coming from Ontario so this may be our only DL trip (i.e. so not sure we'd leave the park)

Good to know that some rides are covered.

Funny enough, I just looked up annual blockout dates, and if I'm looking at it correctly, only 1 out of 4 actually has blocked dates in the summer (the Southern California Select Annual Passport). Not sure the % of people who get this one vs the other three, but that still leaves 3 groups that are not blocked.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

Thanks for the tip about going rope drop and then evening. We'd probably want to get most of our day since we're coming from Ontario so this may be our only DL trip (i.e. so not sure we'd leave the park)

Good to know that some rides are covered.

Funny enough, I just looked up annual blockout dates, and if I'm looking at it correctly, only 1 out of 4 actually has blocked dates in the summer (the Southern California Select Annual Passport). Not sure the % of people who get this one vs the other three, but that still leaves 3 groups that are not blocked.

There are still a lot of SoCal (not "select") holders who have kept theirs through renewal, but they aren't selling those anymore. My parents and my sister's family still have that pass. The lower-tier passes do have enough people that the day they become "unblocked" is something to note.

So I mostly ignore that but pay very close attention to the transition times, like the final week before APs are blocked at Christmas (well, at least now I do ). Or the first week they are unblocked after a long period of time. Or the first time APs are unblocked after a big promotion or season begins.

This attention to "transition times" is important. Last year, I was going 1-2 times a week with my 2-year old in June. One of those days was suddenly MASSIVELY crowded in relation to all the others, horribly so... It was the last day that the lower-tier passes could go for the summer. Normally, blockout days don't really matter, but the summer "end" is definitely one to keep an eye on, as is the pre-Christmas one you noted.

I don't think the "block lifted" day in August is as crazy, but there likely wilL be a bump.

 

[DLgal]

Go when all but Deluxe and higher APs are blocked out. Frankly, the least crowded days this summer so far have been Saturdays. Only the two top tier APs are valid then, and it is SO empty. It is MOST crowded on days when Southern CA AP holders are allowed to come. I would say go first week of August and expect Saturday to be the least crowded day.

 

[sheetz]

I also suspect surge pricing has had a bigger effect than many people expected. The surcharge for a peak day ticket is pretty hefty.