Playing the dreaded airfare game with Delta....

[justanothermark]

According to the latest articles based on millions of airfares say that the lowest rates come in about 6 weeks before travel. Most airlines have an idea of who booked really early and want to get the planes fuller so they drop prices for those that plan but not that far in advance. Then they go up the closer you get. However, it all becomes a game of chicken like the stock market on when to buy. I finally got tired of playing the game with Delta and when they were within $10-15 of lowest price I had seen, I booked with knowledge of the prices and Bing and Google flight pricer to help.

 

[PIRATEGIRL007]

I would not buy tickets this far out. In my personal research I have found prices are higher at 6+ months out for domestic flights. It's alot of the scare tactic game, news reports tell people to buy early and reference things like gas prices just going up and up to scare people into securing a rate now. The airlines know this and don't really start to discount to try to fill the flights until closer in. For me and our preffered airlines (not delta) our sweet spot has been in the 6-10 week out range. If you really like to play the game 3-4 weeks you can score dirt cheap flights (I got $9.99 each way once) on many airlines but you take the risk of getting shut out on the occasion and getting seats that are not together.

 

[Hopefully]

Last year I booked our Delta non stop out of Boston the day the flights were released, mainly out of excitement that I could. I regretted that decision as I was sure I overpaid. For 10 months I watched all flights out of BOS for fares. My Delta fares were the lowest ever offered, including JetBlue, AirTran and SW. And my flights did go up significantly.
This year I book shortly after they opened, and they have already gone up $40 per ticket.
Just my experience.

 

[footballmouse]

I just bought our tickets thru Delta for our Sept. trip. We're a family of 5 and I wanted to make sure we all sat together & we had non-stop flights both ways. I paid $260 out of Cinti to Orlando. Our travel agent said that's a great price for Delta, especially since the times available were exactly what I wanted.

 

[shannonstar]

Have you tried registering with AirFare Watch Dog? You can input the airports you are looking to fly out of and they will send you updates every time there is a price drop.

I signed up for this and have started seeing some better prices come along and it is a lot easier than checking every airline.

They have sent me updates about Continental, Delta, United, Spirit, and US Airways so far.

I hope that helps.

 

[bobbie68]

I just had this conversation with my husband this morning. I have been watching airfare the last couple of weeks. I had to wait for some mile to be put on my account. Today the miles went on so I decided to book my trip. Well I am flying on Jet Blue and the airfare on both my flights went up by $20-$30,00 per person. I asked my husband and he said to buy them now because you don't know what is going to happen. I am about 4 months out but I have to book early to get seats together.
I agree with the pps who said as soon as you see a price you are comfortable with I would purchase them. There is no way to tell what the airlines are going to do for fares.
Happy Hunting.

 

[mermaidwannabe]

I'm playing that game too! It is frustrating, and it borders on obsesssiveness with me, but I'm waiting. Right now my flight is $550pp from Bozeman to Orlando. However, I've been pricing this flight every year since 2005 for approximately the same time period (all with Delta), and it's always this much this far out (looking for June). I have found (for my flight anyways) that prices come down a lot in March, so that's about 2.5 months out. If it's not that much of a price difference I would just book so I could pick which flights and make sure my family of 5 gets to sit together and not have awful layovers. It's a tradeoff for sure, but I refuse to pay more than $400pp. It's typically expensive to fly out of Bozeman, and not sure where you are flying out of? I do go to BING to get the "confidence factor" on whether to buy or not just for reassurance. And I subscribe to Airfare Watchdog. I did get a Delta American Express card which is awesome since I did get a free ticket, and this year, one of our tickets will be bought with a companion ticket which is $99 plus taxes. And each one of us gets to check a bag for free. It's a great card. Sorry so long. Good luck and I feel for you!

 

[PrincessBrianna]

Hm.. I love Delta, I got my 1-way flight for only $100 with them! (I'm driving down from Michigan with my family, staying longer and flying home)

I've never had problems with Delta. I love them. Sure I've missed a connecting flight due to a delay but I called them to complain and they gave me a $100 voucher! Plus I have a Platinum AMEX which gets you and your companions into the World Class Lounge which is AWESOME! Free alcoholic drinks and food.. it's seriously great because I'm a nervous flier so after a glass of wine I'm a lot more calm...

Try buying on a Tuesday, that's when they're the cheapest. My friend and my sister both bought their round trip flights to MCO on different days and they were both only $200.. so yeah, Delta's great! These are all nonstop btw.

I read that there's a new law that is forcing airlines to include ALL THE COSTS in their ticket prices (AKA Spirit can't screw people with all their added fees anymore... like paying $25 for your carryon?! ridiculous!)

So maybe that's why they're higher? I dunno

 

[Niebz]

You are going to hear all kinds of theories about when is the best time to buy air tickets. In reality these are just wild speculation. It comes down to actual, real world, supply & demand on the specific flights you want to buy.
People still are not used to the fact that airlines have reduced capacity the last couple of years. There are less seats flying. I recommend buying the schedule you want within a price range you are comfortable with, especially 90 to 120 days out. Waiting too long in 2012 will most likely mean a higher price later.

I disagree with this. We have a ton of experience booking flights as we travel from Canada to Disney (both land and world) several times a year. We almost always fly Delta and watch the prices closely to get the price we want. For every trip we've ever taken in the past 10 years the price has always, 100% of the time been the lowest between 1-2 months out. Right now the flights for our May trip are $800 + round trip. We know from experience to expect a price of around $500 round trip if we book at 1-2 months out so that is what we plan to do. Like I said, in 10 years this method hasn't failed us yet. Best of luck whatever you decide!

 

[Mickeylivesinseattle]

pirateGirl,
your pricing theory only works on specific flights that might have slow sales. It cannot work in the general world of air travel. In our new world of less seats flying you are really going to take risks waiting too long to purchase flights, especially during the traditional high demand periods like spring breaks, Christmas and summer breaks. I have had success buying low cost domestic flights 6+ months out. Sometimes there are good prices 6 months out. If you find a good price that you like then do not hesitate to purchase, no matter if it is 6 months, 4 months, or 2 months out.

 

[Mickeylivesinseattle]

Niebz,
I also have been booking for many many years. Believe me, we are in a different world now. If you are in a airline market where the number of seats have declined (this is reality in most markets) then past patterns are not guaranteed to happen in the future. It sounds like you stay on top of the pricing trends so if your price target is hit sooner then I assume you would purchase. And you may be in a market where flights have not been slashed. Those of us in markets that now have less flights are experiencing the opposite of what you say. There is no hard, fast rule for everyone on when to buy airline tickets. Your mileage may vary.

 

[hammie59]

For our last trip (May2011), we booked 6 months in advance with Delta out of Detroit at $129 pp (with tax it was more like $159). I was really nervous booking so early, but as the months went by, the prices slowly went up. They never went lower than what I paid, so I was pretty proud of myself considering I'm not a savvy airline traveler. Plus we got first dibs on seating.

 

[sharona]

The PP who said you need to know your target price was on the money! I have found that 10 weeks out is when prices start to be adjusted based on demand. I might check prices as as early as 6 months out once we have our date range and if I see my target price for the flight times I want, I grab it. But, if early prices seem high to me, I wait until 9-10 weeks out to make a move.

Of course with SW or JB you get a credit for any price drops so you have to keep that in mind as well if you are looking at those airlines.

 

[Dustykins]

I booked our flights for our September trip at least a couple of weeks ago. I've been watching prices and it's been steadily increasing since then (already up $40 per person). I don't like playing games and we're really not that flexible on our dates and times so when I found a decent price, I booked so I didn't have to mess with it later.

 

[Chuckers]

I hate Delta.. but unfortunately, they sort of have a lock on Atlanta...

I was thinking of going to WDW for Leap Day back in January. A r/t ticket at that time was $120. I waited one week to decide, the ticket went up to $214.

I booked my vacation and 3 days later, I decided to change my dates and extend it. Delta wanted $150 to change the flight + flight cost changes. However, the new flight was only $130 r/t so I got money back on the flight which helped pay for the change charge.

What a bunch of thieves.

 

[disneybirds]

My DH has a conference in Vegas next month and a few weeks ago I could have picked any Delta flight for $318. Today, they are almost $600!! There are plenty of seats on the plane, so I waiting to see if the price drops. The waiting game is soooo difficult.

 

[elaine amj]

What i doon't get is when flight times disapper, and then reappear. Makes it hopelessly confusing. i've been watching prices to fort lauderdale for a solid year now (cruise in mid-March). It's hovered at about $275 - $300 on Delta from Detroit.

Well, we kept waiting thinking it would drop. (Plus we had scored $150 rundtrip to Orlando in Jan 2011 so were really hopeful). The price has NOT dropped more than a smidgen.

In early Jan, all of a sudden there was a price hike. One day it was normal and then it started swinging wildly up, then wildly down. Flight times were available, then not available. After almost a week of this, i was panicking badly. We saw on a Tuesday a price of about $300/$320. On Friday, I had enough and booked the flight at $350. It wasn't as desirable, the times I wanted weren't available, and I had to fly to an airport further away.

The next few days the prices (for the dates I needed) went up to $400. Then, just last week, the prices dropped again and suddenly the flight I wanted was about $320. Kicked myself a little....but you win some, you lose some.

I just checked again tonight (remember, we're still 5 weeks out) and its $400 and the times are completely undesirable. Even worse, the times I wanted are NOT EVEN AVAILABLE. I don't know if those flights are sold out or if the times will magically reappear next week. I just don't get it.

I find flights from DTW to Florida hand around the $270-$300 mark when you book way in advance. It seems to start climbing about 2-3 months out.

Like many of you, I'm hoping for an end of Aug trip too and I think I will book at the $300 price 3 months out. my nerves just can't take this pricewatching anymore!! Plus, I know for sure I'll get the flight times I want. I was quite horrified to find flight times disappear on me...at 6 weeks out!

Now my next challenge is to figure out rental car codes...now THAT is a game that's even crazier and more unpredictable with a thousand more variables and makes flight price watching look like a child's game.

 

[yankeepenny]

I too have to agree that the airlines and the price nickle and dimeing just plain SUCK.
I would keep an eye on the prices a couple of times a week. I buy ahead for the best rate since we have to go so far, and it is wayyyy more than you have to consider. From where I live, 500.00 for ONE ticket to MCO is a bargain.

Hang in there, a good deal is bound to come up.

 

[dan-tot]

I always fly SWA. It is a bus but they have non-stops all the time.

Dan-tot

 

[Niebz]

Niebz,
I also have been booking for many many years. Believe me, we are in a different world now. If you are in a airline market where the number of seats have declined (this is reality in most markets) then past patterns are not guaranteed to happen in the future. It sounds like you stay on top of the pricing trends so if your price target is hit sooner then I assume you would purchase. And you may be in a market where flights have not been slashed. Those of us in markets that now have less flights are experiencing the opposite of what you say. There is no hard, fast rule for everyone on when to buy airline tickets. Your mileage may vary.

Has it really changed that much in the last 2 months (our most recent trip was in December)? I hope not or we're in trouble for this spring! Our flights over the past year have been the cheapest I've ever seen. I guess it depends on where you fly out of. I do agree with booking when you see the price you want though, regardless of when it happens. If only the airfare prices were more consistent across time.