Park Hopping and THE MATH

[wisblue]

In the discussions about THE MATH, there is one factor that I haven't seen mentioned when it comes to the availability of FP+ for the most popular attractions.

There is a certain percentage of guests who are regular park hoppers. We visit two parks on almost every full day of our trips because we like to get to a park early, take a break in the middle of the day, and then go to a different park later. Whenever the question is asked, it seems that a lot of Disers are devoted hoppers, and I suspect that a lot of locals with AP's also like to visit 2 parks, maybe (for example) to go to a park with their favorite rides in the AM, but then to go to Epcot for the evening.

I assume that park attendance is based on how many people visit the park that day (as in passing through the turnstiles) and does not subtract out people who previously visited another park. (I could also wonder if attendance figures double count guests who leave the park and reenter the same park).

If the park attendance figures being used for THE MATH do not delete hoppers or people who enter the gates of the same park more than once, those figures have to be discounted by some amount to reflect the fact that some percentage of that number will not even be eligible for FP+ under the current rules.

 

[Cheshire Figment]

When I am working in a booth with someone concerning their ticketing, the use history shows the park, turnstile number, date and time of each park entry. For the second or subsequent entry to any park, or for entry to a second park on the same day, it also shows the word "reentry". This shows that a distinction is made between the first entry of the day for a ticket to any park. So it appears that count figures include a tickets first use of the day only.

 

[wisblue]

When I am working in a booth with someone concerning their ticketing, the use history shows the park, turnstile number, date and time of each park entry. For the second or subsequent entry to any park, or for entry to a second park on the same day, it also shows the word "reentry". This shows that a distinction is made between the first entry of the day for a ticket to any park. So it appears that count figures include a tickets first use of the day only.

Thank you for that.

It is my understanding that Disney does not announce official park attendance figures. So I still have the question of whether the published estimates take this into account. Disney might be able to distinguish between first and subsequent entries, but outside parties would not.

I would like bccrook or someone else who is studying the numbers let me know if they know how these second entries are considered.

 

[ghtx]

I'm pretty confident that Disney knows exactly where you've been and where, including whether or not you have hopped, and they are using the most accurate numbers possible in calculating their FP+ estimates. They hire a lot of people who are really good at THE MATH to make these calculations.

 

[wisblue]

I'm pretty confident that Disney knows exactly where you've been and where, including whether or not you have hopped, and they are using the most accurate numbers possible in calculating their FP+ estimates. They hire a lot of people who are really good at THE MATH to make these calculations.

I agree on every point.

I am also confident that they are learning a lot from their testing about how many guests are willing and able to make FP+ reservations 60, 30, and 10 days in advance, and what attractions they are choosing.

My question is whether the Disers who are using published park attendance estimates are using different numbers that may lead to some inaccurate conclusions.

 

[wiigirl]

I'm pretty confident that Disney knows exactly where you've been and where, including whether or not you have hopped, and they are using the most accurate numbers possible in calculating their FP+ estimates. They hire a lot of people who are really good at THE MATH to make these calculations.

x2

 

[ArwenMarie]

I do think the attendance numbers double-count for people who park hop.

 

[saskdw]

In the discussions about THE MATH, there is one factor that I haven't seen mentioned when it comes to the availability of FP+ for the most popular attractions.

There is a certain percentage of guests who are regular park hoppers. We visit two parks on almost every full day of our trips because we like to get to a park early, take a break in the middle of the day, and then go to a different park later. Whenever the question is asked, it seems that a lot of Disers are devoted hoppers, and I suspect that a lot of locals with AP's also like to visit 2 parks, maybe (for example) to go to a park with their favorite rides in the AM, but then to go to Epcot for the evening.

I assume that park attendance is based on how many people visit the park that day (as in passing through the turnstiles) and does not subtract out people who previously visited another park. (I could also wonder if attendance figures double count guests who leave the park and reenter the same park).

If the park attendance figures being used for THE MATH do not delete hoppers or people who enter the gates of the same park more than once, those figures have to be discounted by some amount to reflect the fact that some percentage of that number will not even be eligible for FP+ under the current rules.

I'm going with the assumption that there will be modifications to the FP+ program once it is fully rolled out. I'm thinking there will eventually be different levels of FP+ and ways to park hop. Most likely by next Christmas we will see what the full system will look like.

 

[wisblue]

I'm going with the assumption that there will be modifications to the FP+ program once it is fully rolled out. I'm thinking there will eventually be different levels of FP+ and ways to park hop. Most likely by next Christmas we will see what the full system will look like.

I agree with that too.

The important thing is that Disney will be continuously gathering and analyzing data to decide what changes they may have to make for the system to work as well as possible for the most guests possible.

 

[PeterPanic]

I almost always park hop. I have been there many, many times and I know which attractions I want to see and what time to get there to have the best chance of getting one.

Usually, when you hop, you are in one park in the morning and a different one in the afternoon. Using that idea even the old FP wouldn't be much use to you. By afternoon the FP's were gone so you just had to stand in line someplace. What they are doing now means two things actually.

If you get FP+ and have them for the late morning hours you will get the benefit of more then one or two Fastpasses, that time and logistics didn't allow you to do in the past. (remember I'm not talking about when they ignored the return time on them) So if you get there early you can have short standby lines for most attractions and as the morning wears on...you will have the FP+ benefit to complete your morning. Transitioning to a different park in the PM will be, for the most part, unaffected. You couldn't get FP's at that time anyway. Or you can choose FP's for the afternoon in one park and visit a different park in the morning where the need for FP is less. Other then the planning way ahead...not much different really.

The second works in Disney's favor. If you go early and have Fastpasses that stretch out from the morning to evening you will be locked into that park.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

See, I think one area where Disney could increase guest spending (its purported reason for MM+) is by allowing three FP+s per park per day, because I think then more people would choose park hoppers, which are a more expensive ticket. We've never park hopped ourselves (mainly due to the age of the kids) but I would seriously consider it if I could reserve late morning FPs+ at one park and late afternoon and/or evening FP+s at another.

 

[agavegirl1]

I do think the attendance numbers double-count for people who park hop.

In previous MATH calculations, I have seen the attendance numbers used from published reports as well as estimates meant to take into account hoppers but those were guesstimates. The published numbers are attendance by park where AK, DHS, MK and Epcot all have their own attendance figures. There was not a number for "unique guests" published.

However, for park specific MATH, these figures tend to work well.

 

[Laketravis]

See, I think one area where Disney could increase guest spending (its purported reason for MM+) is by allowing three FP+s per park per day, because I think then more people would choose park hoppers, which are a more expensive ticket. We've never park hopped ourselves (mainly due to the age of the kids) but I would seriously consider it if I could reserve late morning FPs+ at one park and late afternoon and/or evening FP+s at another.

We are big park hoppers as well (most days we do 3 parks) and found FP+ to be useful in later afternoon/evening at the busier parks while going to the most recommended park in the mornings and taking our chances with Standby. For instance:

Early AM: MK and standby
Afternoon: HS and FP+
Evening: Epcot, WS and Illuminations

But I also have to wonder what load park hopping puts on Disney Transportation - boats, buses, monorail. From my perspective, I paid a few bucks extra per day for the ability to park hop, but from Disney's perspective maybe I'm consuming a few extra bucks per day in transportation costs?

Park Hoppers may not be the cash cow WDW intended them to be.

 

[wisblue]

We are big park hoppers as well (most days we do 3 parks) and found FP+ to be useful in later afternoon/evening at the busier parks while going to the most recommended park in the mornings and taking our chances with Standby. For instance:

Early AM: MK and standby
Afternoon: HS and FP+
Evening: Epcot, WS and Illuminations

But I also have to wonder what load park hopping puts on Disney Transportation - boats, buses, monorail. From my perspective, I paid a few bucks extra per day for the ability to park hop, but from Disney's perspective maybe I'm consuming a few extra bucks per day in transportation costs?

Park Hoppers may not be the cash cow WDW intended them to be.

I wouldn't think this would be significant, if anything, because, except at park openings and (especially) closings after nighttime entertainment, the transportation is not that full. They have to run transportation regularly for the guest that wants to get from here to there in the middle of the day, but usually it is not that busy.

For example, if we take a bus from the MK to SSR at 1PM, and then a second bus from SSR to Epcot at 5 PM, those buses are almost never that full. I think they have buses that cycle through a route in the middle of the day, regardless of how busy they are. The monorails seem to be the same way.

 

[ArwenMarie]

See, I think one area where Disney could increase guest spending (its purported reason for MM+) is by allowing three FP+s per park per day, because I think then more people would choose park hoppers, which are a more expensive ticket. We've never park hopped ourselves (mainly due to the age of the kids) but I would seriously consider it if I could reserve late morning FPs+ at one park and late afternoon and/or evening FP+s at another.

They don't seem to have the capacity for that. I think they don't want people to park hop for other reasons as well, including overcrowding at MK.

 

[Laketravis]

I wouldn't think this would be significant, if anything, because, except at park openings and (especially) closings after nighttime entertainment, the transportation is not that full. They have to run transportation regularly for the guest that wants to get from here to there in the middle of the day, but usually it is not that busy.

For example, if we take a bus from the MK to SSR at 1PM, and then a second bus from SSR to Epcot at 5 PM, those buses are almost never that full. I think they have buses that cycle through a route in the middle of the day, regardless of how busy they are. The monorails seem to be the same way.

Wis, that's exactly my point - it only takes one bean counter to point out how much it cost to transport only a couple of passengers that were park hopping

Suppose the cost of operational hour for a WDW bus is $100. If it is just you being transported from SSR to EP and it takes 15 minutes, Disney calculates a cost of $25 to move a park hopper.

We might argue that bus needed to be running or available or in service anyway but on an aggregate level the bean counters see it as waste.

If you are proposing the inclusion/exclusion of park hoppers at a granular level in the calculation of FP+ distribution, then I am suggesting that there are other apparent factors and costs that are just as significant, such as the cost to move park hoppers from one park to another, that Disney would consider when deciding to either promote or discourage park hopping.

 

[wisblue]

I don't want to belabor the point, but those buses are not just for hoppers. They could be for someone returning to their room for a break and then returning to the same park. Or going to do something else. Or maybe just arriving or going back to get ready to go to the airport.

Disney promotes the fact that they provide buses that run about every 20 minutes to service park guests. My guess is that they build the cost of that more into room rates than park tickets (which can be purchased by anyone). If the bus service erodes, they run the risk of more people renting cars, and that's the last thing they want.

 

[Laketravis]

I don't want to belabor the point

Then I don't think you are willing to consider every factor Disney uses when making a decision.

 

[wisblue]

Then I don't think you are willing to consider every factor Disney uses when making a decision.

But then I just did.

If Disney wants to discourage park hopping, why would they have just expanded the bus station at MK and added bus transportation between parks?
It looks more like they are trying to encourage hopping as part of the plan to keep people on site.

 

[Laketravis]

It looks more like they are trying to encourage hopping as part of the plan to keep people on site.

Then perhaps the best way they could do that would be to "allow" FP selections across multiple parks on the same day