Our Childrens' Futures?

[NotUrsula]

I love that list and I love that nearly every point on it is an improvement to society.

Oh, gotta argue with that on this one:

Talking to one person at a time: Remember when it was rude to be with one person while talking to another on the phone? Kids born today will just assume that you're supposed to use texting to maintain contact with five or six other people while pretending to pay attention to the person you happen to be physically next to.

That is no kind of improvement to society, and no child of mine will "just assume" that they are supposed to do that. A person who is present will always be more deserving of attention than one who is not present, and it will always be ill-mannered to divide one's conversation that way.

As to the entire list, yes, a lot of them are good things, but a lot of them require electricity, and there are still a whole lot of places in the world (and a fair number of them in the US) where it is not always available. A smart person will use those tools but not depend entirely upon them, even 30 years from now.

 

[tvguy]

Well, there are a few on the list that I'm not so sure are going away soon enough for those born in 2011 not to experience.

Paper maps: I work in a TV station and monitor police and fire radios and dispatch camera crews. Street names aren't always spelled the way they sound, and so far, none of the online maps or CD maps have artificial intelligence to suggest a spelling different than what I type in. You have to go to the old fashion index on a paper map to find it. Today I looked up a street that sounded like Sarah, or was it Sara, no such streets here. Looking down the list of street names....poof there it is, Serra.

Yellow and White Pages: None of the online phone directories appear to purge the names and numbers of disconnected numbers. I was looking for a place to eat in my area, and the first 6 restaurants listed are out of business. 2 have been out of business for 5 years. Printed phone books are printed and updated annually.


Video tape: Given that you can still buy Super 8 FILM in 2011, and can still get THAT processed, even though most folks switched to beta or VHS 30 years ago kind of indicates that tape will be around for decades.

Hard wired phones: Sometimes I don't want to be found. And who on earth pays $35 a month for a hardwired phone, it's bundled with my internet, and costs me $14 a month.......I may get rid of my cell phone, which costs $49 a month, $79 a month if I want to add a data plan.

What will go away?
Retirement plans I've always worked in the private sector, 35 years, as has my wife, we have never had a retirement plan, those went away in the early 1970's. Now, PUBLIC sector retirement plans, yes, those will go away, as will their ability to retire with 80% of their base pay and full medical benefits for life after 30 years service at age 50. Full public retirement age should be boosted from 50 to 65, reduced benefits to age 62.

 

[RitaE]

Oh, gotta argue with that on this one:

Quote:
Talking to one person at a time: Remember when it was rude to be with one person while talking to another on the phone? Kids born today will just assume that you're supposed to use texting to maintain contact with five or six other people while pretending to pay attention to the person you happen to be physically

which I said "nearly every point" and not "every single point."

As for regards to texting, I certainly consider it a technological advancement. As somebody who can remember the days of playing voice mail tag for hours if not days...... instant contact can have its advantages.

No, it doesn't excuse rudeness. I never implied that.

 

[Shutterbug]

Paper maps:

Even though I have a gps, I still take paper maps with me on long trips.
Reasons why,
1) Gps's are not infallible on more than one occasion it wanted me going down old back roads as opposed to the faster highway
2) Gps's are electronic. Electronics break, you drop it it can break, a component of the unit can break. As with electronics it needs power, it battery dies and you have no way to charge it, its useless.

Electronics are great things to make your lives easier and more enjoyable but its still nice to know I can figure my way and where I am at with a map.

 

[Shutterbug]

instant contact can have its advantages.

Its only instant contact if that person has their phone on them, then in that case they could also accept a live phone call

 

[RitaE]

Today 07:29 PM
Shutterbug
Quote:
Originally Posted by RitaE View Post
instant contact can have its advantages.
Its only instant contact if that person has their phone on them, then in that case they could also accept a live phone call

not at all.

My husband frequently has his phone on him and can accept text messages during a conference or meeting - but not a phone call. And given that we are often in time zones up to 13 hours apart and can go for two weeks or so without face to face contact, there are times that I treasure those text messages. As do his children.

 

[NotUrsula]

Its only instant contact if that person has their phone on them, then in that case they could also accept a live phone call

Not always. I work in libraries, and we ban voice calls in study areas because they are disruptive to others. You can text all you like, however.
Also, the building I work in acts as a partial Faraday Cage -- wireless phone texts will come through, but voice calls will not.

I don't have anything against texting as a technology, but I will have no part of any "progress" that says that it is just fine to ignore someone you are supposedly conversing with in person, in favor of simultaneously electronically communicating with someone else. No, no, no -- if whatever device you are carrying beeps, vibrates or toodles, you ignore it and shut it off unless you are in a position to excuse yourself to step away in order to check on it, or at the absolute least, ask your companion for permission to check the origin of the call while he or she waits.

Now if the person you are with says, "let's check with Jamie and see what's going on tonight", then yes, you can text Jamie while the person with you looks over your shoulder, and you can answer and read the message aloud. It's basic etiquette that hasn't changed since second grade, when if you were caught passing a note in class you had to share it with everyone. It is impolite to carry on a third-party conversation right under someone's nose without inviting the person with you to participate in that conversation.

 

[JennaTX]

The only one I care about on that list is books. I don't want to buy a Nook or Kindle at all; I need to hold my paper book and turn the pages.

I am the same way, I love my books.

But my DD (11) bought herself a kindle last year, and I thought she will be the generation that does not have books in every shelf, cupboard, etc. like I do.

 

[bicker]

I wish the commercials would hurry up and be obsolete.

Be careful what you wish for. Commercials pay for the production values you enjoy in the programming you watch. Obsolete the commercials, and you'll see over-the-air television programming be relegated to live events and reality shows, exclusively; with all the good programming shifted to cable/satellite, where cable bills would skyrocket.

 

[bicker]

And that is why I think the article is just plain lazy.

Uh, I think you need to read the article again. Lots of what you said in your reply was stuff like "A quick look through these boards will tell you that they are far from being extinct." However, the article says things like, "When it's time for their honeymoon, will those born in 2011 be able to find one?" That's 26.5 years from now. Also, your reply seems to indicate that you think the author feels that all these things will be gone, when the author instead used the word "unrecognizable". For example, ask any travel agent who's been doing the job for at least 26.5 years and they'll tell you that the job they do and the service they provide is absolutely unrecognizable from when they started.

 

[bicker]

Also, I can imagine that reading something for hours on a Nook or Kindle would make my eyes 'bug out' so to speak. But I've never even seen one so I might be wrong.

Quite the opposite. With the exception of the Nook Color, for which perhaps you eyes could 'bug out', all the rest of the e-readers use e-ink of some sort, which basically works on your eye almost exactly like ink on paper. As a matter of fact, Kindles and (regular) Nooks are actually easier on the eyes than (paper) magazines, which often are too glossy, causing glare. The e-readers are a little glossier than real paper, but nowhere near as glossy as a (paper) magazine.

Does the writer really believe the world is made up of nothing but upper middle class kids whose parents can afford this stuff?

Even today we see even children living in poverty managing to afford MP3 players instead of relying on 8-track tapes or cassettes. Computers and computerization will become more and more essential despite all Luddite protestation to the contrary.

Well, there are a few on the list that I'm not so sure are going away soon enough for those born in 2011 not to experience.

Paper maps

The maps you were talking about are going to be digitized, and stored. The advantages of having these essential maps available in multiple locations, and as a result secure from a fire in the old hall of records, will outweigh all other considerations. They'll still be graphical, so you can still view them looking for the alternative spellings, as you do today.

Yellow and White Pages

You just pointed out things that are wrong with online services today. They'll just be fixed, over time. Or perhaps not: The issue is that the production of printed books will no longer benefit the printers (because the vast majority, though perhaps not all, of needs they satisfy will be satisfied with the new alternative), so they'll stop. Period.

Video tape

Comparing film to tape is a bit off-target to start with. But the real problem with this one is that it makes it sound like video tape is going away in the far future. No. It's much closer than that, at least for what people typically think of as video tape, i.e., VHS. They don't make VHS equipment anymore. They don't put out content on VHS tape anymore. The writing is on the wall. VHS will die. So perhaps the error that the author made was saying video tape, generically, instead of being specific and saying VHS tape.

Reasons why ... Gps's are electronic. Electronics break, you drop it it can break, a component of the unit can break. As with electronics it needs power, it battery dies and you have no way to charge it, its useless.

Have you switched to an electronic watch? All you're pointing out is the things that need to get better before the switch to electronic GPSs is complete. And also, remember that just because there is a 1% scenario where the old way would be better, that's not enough to overcome the 99% scenario where the new way is better. As I alluded to with regard to the examples above, if so many people switch to the new approach, then the old approach becomes unprofitable. It dies not necessarily because it is unnecessary (because perhaps it is 1% necessary); rather it dies because it just isn't worth enough for people to keep alive (read: enough people paying enough for it to sustain its profitability to the folks who provide it).

 

[fhtpdw20]

Lord help the world if the power goes out or mother nature cause interferece with all wireless gadgets. The real problem as I see it is the sole dependence on technology. The " I don't need to learn to spell because spell check will fix it or we don't have to practice writing because we text everything." Great when it works but have you ever tried going to the grocery store when the computers are down?

 

[bicker]

The real problem as I see it is the sole dependence on technology.

We have been solely dependent on technology for many aspects of society - more important aspects of society - perhaps for centuries. The most significant technological advancements on which we rely, solely, are those that made the Industrial Revolution possible, i.e., those technological advancements to agriculture and transportation that allow most people to be employed in activities other than food production. And not only are we solely reliant on those technological advancements to keep food on our tables, the vast majority of us couldn't turn around and go back to how things were before these technological advancements, growing our own food. We just don't know how; we wouldn't know where to start; and the arable land left is insufficient to produce sufficient food for our now-excessive-population without benefit of all the technological advancements.

There are similar examples with regard to safety and security, communications, etc. - major aspects of life on which we rely, solely, on technological advancements. And most of those I are referring to are far more important than most of the items listed in the article.

 

[eliza61]

I found the list interesting. What scares me is a lot of stuff is going to lead (if we don't already have) a class system.

Books, newspapers and the mail. If they are replaced with the internet and someone does not have access to the internet their screwed. Most people assume that every one can afford internet service and a computer.
Public libraries in my town have all but shut down, I couldn't tell you where to find one so the poor will be left behind.
My son has a number of friends who come over to use our computer to put in a job application. so many of the stores around here now make you apply on line.

 

[LIDisneyFan]

Read the article and had the same thought-it was lazy "journalism'. They should have called it 'what a smart phone can replace' and call it a day.

 

[MarkBarbieri]

Video tape: Memory cards are better in virtually every way. Why miss tape? Do people miss Edison cylinders?


Travel agents: It used to be hard to find information about travel destinations and so you needed an agent to help you. Now so much information is available that they are less essential. They'll still exist for complex itineraries, niche stuff, or people that just want them. Without the easy money from easy bookings, they'll cost more. On the flip side, the cost of them has been driven out of many products and so those products are cheaper.



The separation of work and home: Sort of. I work in an industry where being on call and working nights and weekends isn't unusual. With modern technology, that now means that I can do those things from home or even while traveling. On one hand, that makes it harder to "get away". On the other hand, I can get away far more often because I don't have to be physically present at the office. In all, I find it to be much better than when I started working.



Books, magazines, and newspapers: The physical ones are gone. The electronic ones are growing in number and variety. I like the new situation better.



Movie rental stores: I don't miss them at all. VOD is much better.


Watches: They'll always exist as jewelry. I haven't worn one in twenty years. I don't miss it.


Paper maps: I have electronic ones that are better. I don't miss the paper ones.

Wired phones: Gave up having a "wired" phone over twenty years ago. I gave up having a land line about five years ago. I don't miss either. I find the notion of having a "home" phone amusing. My house doesn't talk to anyone.



Long distance: Limited? I thought they were already gone.



Newspaper classifieds: Once again, replaced by better technology.



Dial-up Internet: Once again, replaced by better technology.


Encyclopedias: They still exist, but in much better forms.


Forgotten friends: Poppycock. Do you think you really keep up with all your friends on some social networking technology forever? I'm sure that people will be easier to find and reconnect with, but lots of people will still move on.


Forgotten anything else: It will be much easier to look up facts, but being able to look something up isn't anything like actually knowing something. You could look up virtually everything involved in performing surgery in a book, but I'm not going to let you operate on me. Hopefully it will reduce the need for rote memorization of some facts, but it won't ever replace knowing and understanding things.



The evening news: It will stay around as long as there are people that like getting their news in that way. The modern delivery of news is vastly better than it was in the past with more variety and more immediacy.


CDs: Like tapes, new media have improved on the old ones. It doesn't mean that music itself is any better, but it is more convenient and cheaper.


Film cameras: Once again, surpassed by improved technology.

Yellow and White Pages: I haven't used a physical phone book in ages. Once again, surpassed by improved technology.

Catalogs: Not only have catalogs gone online, so have the stores. Life is so much better because of this. I didn't go into a single store to Christmas shop.


Fax machines: Once again, surpassed by improved technology.


One picture to a frame: This one is still a long way off. The resolution and cost/size of prints is still much better than digital frames. Both will coexist and exploit their advantages. Someday, when quality, cost to purchase, and cost to operate come down enough, digital frames might replace printed pictures. That would be a good thing.



Wires: Wires for transmitting information are fading fast. They still have a purpose for people with a need for speed. Wires in general aren't going away soon because of the need to power devices. You'll still need to plug things in. We are a long way from battery and wireless energy transmission abilities to do away with most power cords.

Hand-written letters: When my oldest was struggling with his handwriting in Kindergarten, I let him in on a secret. It doesn't really matter that much. As he grows up, it will be much faster and better to type rather than hand write. I find nothing more special about something that someone has hand written rather than typed. It's the words that matter, not how they are drawn. These sort of people probably whined about the end of quill pens.



Talking to one person at a time: Rude is still rude and kids still need to learn how to focus on the person they are talking to. Texting is different from a conversation.



Retirement plans: I still have a retirement and retiree medical plan where I work. Honestly, I prefer to have the compensation in a form that is more portable and that I can manage myself. The old stay with a company and they'll take care of you approach left you yoked to a company even if it became poorly managed. Now days, people can take their 401K and tell the company goodbye.





Mail: Once again, largely replaced by better technology. I just wish I could get them to stop putting those junk circulars in my box. I'd like to see the postal service add a trash can next to those group mailboxes so that I can throw stuff away there rather than taking it home first.



Commercials on TV: I'm amazed that they still exist. I know very few people that don't DVR most of what they watch and skip the commercials.


Commercial music radio: I'm amazed that so few DVR (or DAR) devices exist for radios. What's the hold up? I want more "custom" radio where I have more control over the mix that is made just for me.

Hiding: Is it really that hard for people to leave their phones at home or turn them off? It isn't that it is hard to hide. I think that people prefer not to be hidden.

 

[Kathi OD]

Also, I can imagine that reading something for hours on a Nook or Kindle would make my eyes 'bug out' so to speak. But I've never even seen one so I might be wrong.

I thought the same thing. However, you can adjust the text size on a Nook (probably a Kindle, too) and now my eyes actually "bug out" less than they did when reading a "real" book.

What you don't realize when you haven't tried an e-reader is that the screen is not exactly like a computer screen. They use a different technology for the text called e-ink. It is very similar to an actual book page.

 

[bicker]

What you don't realize when you haven't tried an e-reader is that the screen is not exactly like a computer screen. They use a different technology for the text called e-ink. It is very similar to an actual book page.

In some ways, it reminds me of the Marauder's Map from Harry Potter.

 

[NotUrsula]

We have been solely dependent on technology for many aspects of society - more important aspects of society - perhaps for centuries. The most significant technological advancements on which we rely, solely, are those that made the Industrial Revolution possible, i.e., those technological advancements to agriculture and transportation that allow most people to be employed in activities other than food production. And not only are we solely reliant on those technological advancements to keep food on our tables, the vast majority of us couldn't turn around and go back to how things were before these technological advancements, growing our own food. We just don't know how; we wouldn't know where to start; and the arable land left is insufficient to produce sufficient food for our now-excessive-population without benefit of all the technological advancements.

There are similar examples with regard to safety and security, communications, etc. - major aspects of life on which we rely, solely, on technological advancements. And most of those I are referring to are far more important than most of the items listed in the article.

The thing is, Bicker, we're not talking about levers and fulcrums here, or even diesel-powered combines. There is technology, and then there is technology that does not function without electric power drawn from the grid. Right now, I can think of only two commonly used personal devices that are capable of running for months solely on a non-recharged battery or on solar power: small timepieces, and pocket calculators. (I can think of some others, but they are not exactly pocket-sized: the technology is primarily used by satellites.)

I grew up in the hurricane belt. Anyone who thinks that it isn't possible in this day and age in America to find yourself without access to ANY electric power other than solar or diesel-generated for an extended period of time is dead wrong. (A car battery is good for a couple of days at most when it is being used to power anything more than the electical system of a vehicle.)

Not nearly enough of our technological development is being invested in the creation of end-user electric power sources that do not require being run through the mainstream grid. Unless that R&D focus changes radically, it would be unforgiveably foolish to abandon all forms of manual, unpowered eye-readable information storage for basic survival information (including technical information on how to maintain the infrastructure that supports the power grid!)

 

[bicker]

The thing is, Bicker, we're not talking about levers and fulcrums here, or even diesel-powered combines.

However, once you introduce diesel-powered combines to the scenario, all my points apply. And beyond that, even more strongly once you employ the technological accomplishments regarding fertilizers and pesticides. We cannot feed the world without them.

There is technology, and then there is technology that does not function without electric power drawn from the grid.

Like the machines that fabricate the aforementioned fertilizers and pesticides, and machine the precision parts necessary to build the diesel engines, and operate the pipelines and tanker ships that provide enough crude oil to fuel those combines.