Orange County Commissioners vote & rumor leaks...

[Planogirl]

Or Disney anticipates a post Star Wars world where capacity is not a 1-2 day thing but rather a distinct possibility regularly during busy seasons.

And I think that is what is going on. FP+, variable pricing, EMH, DVC cost increases - are all in anticipation of wall to wall people in 2020.

Sorry folks but once Star Wars opens - this won't be your old Disney. I guarantee there has been enough market study to know that Star Wars will dwarf HP and the mouse better be able to control those crowds. Reduced annual passes, variable pricing will be part of it. I also foresee elimination of EMH for a new perk - guaranteed entrance. Stay on property and you won't be turned away. Stay off property and well - maybe you can come to the park today.

For a while at least. Disney had better deliver because they are not only dealing with some of the most devoted fans but also some of the loudest critics. If this expansion is mediocre or bad, or everything is too crowded to be enjoyable, it won't reflect very well on Disney in the long term.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

We have DirectV. I prefer everything in one place from one source.

Besides Blue Ray was supposed to replaced DVD and the last report seems to indicate that people aren't jumping on that bandwagon.

Because most people are going streaming/digital in lieu of bluray

iTunes and Amazon video represents an evolution over blu Ray does it not?

Why have a disc?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Hey we don't watch VHS anymore and all my music is digital so we are out of the 1980s except for the home phone but that will likely change soon.

What I'm saying is that 10 tvs and two cable/satellite providers is likely not indicative of the market trends in the US anymore.

At least in the Northeast, the trend is a vast reduction in cable provided services and an increase in web/mobile consumption...not only that - in most suburban markets the average household is becoming more active and actually consuming less couch time...

Cable and all is still a huge business...but when a technology is deemed "done" the decline is often precipitous.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Or Disney anticipates a post Star Wars world where capacity is not a 1-2 day thing but rather a distinct possibility regularly during busy seasons.

And I think that is what is going on. FP+, variable pricing, EMH, DVC cost increases - are all in anticipation of wall to wall people in 2020.

Sorry folks but once Star Wars opens - this won't be your old Disney. I guarantee there has been enough market study to know that Star Wars will dwarf HP and the mouse better be able to control those crowds. Reduced annual passes, variable pricing will be part of it. I also foresee elimination of EMH for a new perk - guaranteed entrance. Stay on property and you won't be turned away. Stay off property and well - maybe you can come to the park today.

You are probably right...

But that also is a risky strategy because it assumes never having a large scale economic slowdown.

Because when...not if...that happens, the effect at places like wdw is going to be a massive blow to Disney's ledgers.

Or do we believe there is a 50,000,000 person network of "old money" rabid Disney fans that want to go 3x a year to amusement parks and will never stay away?
That's how they're operating...and it's ludicrous.

But...when you let one guy and a schill board do this...because they're just looking to cash out - which they are - then you get what you deserve longterm.

 

[DDLand]

This all makes my head spin. The way I see it, a theme park is nothing like a hotel. A hotel has a fixed number of rooms and each room has a fixed number of beds. The demand must absolutely be adjusted with price because the supply is absolutely fixed.

Except on one or two of the busiest days in the year a theme park has no such absolute limit on capacity. Park hours can be increased or decreased, seasonal attractions and food venues can be opened and closed, tables, eating areas and cash registers can be opened or closed, live shows can have more or less frequent schedules, and many rides can operate at more or less capacity depending on the number of vehicles and tracks that are in circulation. Extra shows, such as streetmosphere actors, musical acts and firework displays can be added and deleted according to expected crowds. And if the overall product is in more demand then why not just go ahead and make more product to sell. It's not like WDW ran out of land or anything. Or ideas. Or maybe they did ...

Consider this - does Corn Flakes offer seasonal pricing because they noticed that sales are heavier from Nov - April than the rest of the year?

Disney can go ahead and try to push the industry into a direction that makes no economic sense, by pretending that they have to manage theme park capacity as if they own a virtual vacation monopoly with fixed limits on capacity. Whether the public will go along is a completely different thing.

I'll jump in because you make an interesting point...

You point out that theme parks have a great degree of ability to adjust daily offerings, available capacity, and hours. This is exactly why having this pre booking makes sense. They'll be able to adjust seasonal hiring, employee hours, and park hours by knowing exactly who will be there. This is even better than MyMagic+. That data they only get around 3 months out. What if they could get an idea of park demand 6 months or 7 months out? Even more actionable information that they can plan out operations according to.

I think @Budshark also has a thoughtful point here too. SWL is going to change everything, having the ability to plan and even potentially shut down ticket sales on certain a days are powerful options.

Also @lockedoutlogic, this could actually makes it easier for Disney to dynamically adjust pricing in times of crisis. By the act of adding more bronze or silver days they could increase accessibility in a major way.

 

[rteetz]

What I'm saying is that 10 tvs and two cable/satellite providers is likely not indicative of the market trends in the US anymore.

At least in the Northeast, the trend is a vast reduction in cable provided services and an increase in web/mobile consumption...not only that - in most suburban markets the average household is becoming more active and actually consuming less couch time...

Cable and all is still a huge business...but when a technology is deemed "done" the decline is often precipitous.

Well I'm in the Midwest and at least in my area and family and friends I don't know anyone who has cut cable yet.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Well I'm in the Midwest and at least in my area and family and friends I don't know anyone who has cut cable yet.

Well...it will likely start soon...

And I thought you lived in Southern Canada?

 

[rteetz]

Well...it will likely start soon...

And I thought you lived in Southern Canada?

Wisconsin may feel like southern Canada weather wise but no.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Also @lockedoutlogic, this could actually makes it easier for Disney to dynamically adjust pricing in times of crisis. By the act of adding more bronze or silver days they could increase accessibility in a major way.

Ok...if you're thinking that they might be implementing these changes at least in part to allow for emergency flexibility...that's a great thought.

But I don't think anyone in the dwarve building had it. That's the kinda "aw shucks" family management style that left early in the Eisner/wells tenure. The kind that had Disney shut down his studio in 1942 and let the army turn it into a Training center.

I think they will do exactly what they did in the last mini depression: very drastic temporary discounts on higher prices.

Those cannons have been brought to bare now in full force. Is there another reason for all the anxiety rise over the last couple of years? It's not magic bands...is the price, stupid!

So if your surmise is correct...and they'll reduce $140 day tickets down to $120 and $120 down to $110...do you think that will stem the tide to a recession?

I'd bet no...because like it or not (management hates it)...the place is fueled by the masses...not the economically elite. That's doesn't mean everyone...but it means slot more with budget awareness than not.

Even Mickey can't stop that.

I'd have to see them maintain/boost attendance during economic constriction before I'd believe it.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Wisconsin may feel like southern Canada weather wise but no.

Exactly...Canada south

(You walked into that)

 

[rteetz]

Exactly...Canada south

(You walked into that)

I'm sorry I don't really get it...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I'm sorry I don't really get it...

Well...you certainly have a Midwestern sense of humor, my man

 

[Eoghann]

You'd be surprised, my friend...

Cable tv is largely the same as it always was according to price structures...
Digital, on demand are nice...but it still a tightly regulated enterprise where people
Are paying for bundles regardless of usage.

It's kinda like VHS...it could unravel very quickly

It's a question of tipping points. Cable cutting has been happening for a decade but there are signs that the pace is picking up. Cable subscriptions (and satellite) are now dropping. Netflix and Amazon are investing heavily in original programming; CBS plans to make the next Star Trek series available only through its online service; HBO Plus.

Have we hit that tipping point? Maybe, maybe not but we are certainly close when we do the change will happen so fast you'll miss it if you blink.

 

[Eoghann]

We have DirectV. I prefer everything in one place from one source.

Besides Blue Ray was supposed to replaced DVD and the last report seems to indicate that people aren't jumping on that bandwagon.

That's because it ended up being superseded by streaming... which is what is driving people dropping cable.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

It's a question of tipping points. Cable cutting has been happening for a decade but there are signs that the pace is picking up. Cable subscriptions (and satellite) are now dropping. Netflix and Amazon are investing heavily in original programming; CBS plans to make the next Star Trek series available only through its online service; HBO Plus.

Have we hit that tipping point? Maybe, maybe not but we are certainly close when we do the change will happen so fast you'll miss it if you blink.

Again...agree 100%.
That's why Disney has been investing in content so heavily and you will see comcasts fronts: NBC and universal start to do it heavily.

The Trend is bad for cable/satellite providers and networks who get fees just to exist on cable.

ESPN is at the very top of the list for the Latter

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

I live in Maryland - not as many cord cutters here as some might make you think. Nobody I know has cut cable yet, and I know a lot of people that probably never will. also don't see the "people getting off the couch more these days". Actually it is quite the opposite.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I leave in Maryland - not as many cord cutters here as some might make you think. Nobody I know has cut cable yet, and I know a lot of people that probably never will. also don't see the "people getting off the couch more these days". Actually it is quite the opposite.

If I might ask...where in Maryland (I love Maryland...by the way)?

I'm here in the swath of the megalopolis and the rates of running, cycling, water sports here is dramatically on the rise to the naked eye.

And this is the part of the country that used to specialize in veal and peppers consumption.

Maybe kids are less active...I can see that...but in urban/close suburban areas the adult activity levels seem to be up quite a bit and the nytimes, philly inquirer do a lot of active living pieces now.

 

[Eoghann]

I leave in Maryland - not as many cord cutters here as some might make you think. Nobody I know has cut cable yet, and I know a lot of people that probably never will. also don't see the "people getting off the couch more these days". Actually it is quite the opposite.

I'd say there are two elements missing that stop it being mainstream yet.

1) Until recently there haven't been many good hardware options for watching this stuff on tv. The latest versions of the Roku, Apple TV and Amazon Fire TV pretty much resolve that, and Apple's marketing power means a mainstream push is about to happen.

2) People don't want to have to manage a thousand separate monthly subscriptions. But I'm already starting to see bundling options (Hulu now has a Showtime add on, Dish has their SlingTV bundle).

Once those options are available it becomes easier to subscribe this way than messing with cable or satellite and has the advantage of you picking the exact bundle you want instead of me for example stuck wasting money on ESPN and other sports channels I would never watch.

Again, keep in mind tipping points. It's slow going up the mountain, but once you crest you gather speed exponentially.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

The obesity rate clearly shows a different trend. The percentage of people getting more active is not offsetting the percentage that is getting less. Diabetes is becoming a huge issue, it is not even referred to as "Adult onset" as much now because kids are getting it - which is not suppose to happen. (ok don't need to get into a lengthy conversation about that...I have some background in this as I a high school coach, my niece is works in the nutrition field, etc). But the issues facing kids and adults these days is incredible due to the less active lives people are living. I do agree that some are getting more active, but this is by no means a trend at all, it is just a small percentage of people.

I live just outside the city limits I guess you could say.

 

[Eoghann]

The obesity rate clearly shows a different trend. The percentage of people getting more active is not offsetting the percentage that is getting less. Diabetes is becoming a huge issue, it is not even referred to as "Adult onset" as much now because kids are getting it - which is not suppose to happen. (ok don't need to get into a lengthy conversation about that...I have some background in this as I a high school coach, my niece is works in the nutrition field, etc). But the issues facing kids and adults these days is incredible due to the less active lives people are living. I do agree that some are getting more active, but this is by no means a trend at all, it is just a small percentage of people.

I live just outside the city limits I guess you could say.

Food is a far larger factor in obesity than exercise (also true for diabetes). It's just a question of math. Take a look at how much exercise you'd have to do in order to "burn off' a Big Mac.

Not saying we are more active, but what your using as proof is flawed.