I was trying to avoid saying this early on (for fear of jinxing everything), but I was pretty optimistic about this year.
Two years ago, there was a tech problem that allowed scalpers to grab a ton of inventory that screwed up availability. I think they mostly solved that last year.
But the MK sales this week were comparatively tepid. Even the days that sold out took a little while. Having more days to choose from might have helped. (I'm also gently suspicious that they may have held back some spots for the popular days from the MK sale - I feel like they'd rather have day guests on those days.)
Last year, I was stuck in a meeting and wasn’t able to join the queue until 10am. I was able to purchase my tickets after two hours, and about 1/3 the dates were sold out.
As of now, the wait is leas than 1/2 hour and all dates are available. It could be that a few extra days of availability helped, and/ or maybe Disney is increasing the capacity of the event. It sure seems like they let more people in year after year. But ultimately I think demand is softening. Tickets are up 50% in just a few years… lots of families simply can’t afford it.