one time use points, imbalanced allocations, and lots of frustration

[disneynutz]

I'm kind of wondering the same thing as you. It does seem as if there are low point cost times that have high demand, which just seems to be the opposite of how it should be.

I still don't see the benefit of charging more points for busy times, when the resort is full, it's full. Owners who didn't get the reservation that they wanted will have to book at a different time or at a different resort.

This isn't a cash business where Disney wants to take advantage of the busy season and charge more money. The only reason that I can see for requiring more points for certain seasons is to sell those owners more points if they want to stay during high season.

What am I missing, can you please explain.

Bill

 

[mjc2003]

I still don't see the benefit of charging more points for busy times, when the resort is full, it's full. Owners who didn't get the reservation that they wanted will have to book at a different time or at a different resort.

This isn't a cash business where Disney wants to take advantage of the busy season and charge more money. The only reason that I can see for requiring more points for certain seasons is to sell those owners more points if they want to stay during high season.

What am I missing, can you please explain.

Bill

Are you talking about getting rid of point seasons altogether? I always figured it was just to balance out the demand and make DVC more functional. I think it'd be a mess if Easter week was the same number of points as mid-January, there'd be a lot of unhappy people. It sort of works as a form of "compensation" for the people who will travel during off times, when the park hours are reduced, rides are more likely to be shut down, etc...

Or, maybe it is just to sell more points to those who only want to travel during high seasons. If it is, I guess that's just good business; maximizing profits.

I really don't know, that's just a guess.

 

[disneynutz]

Are you talking about getting rid of point seasons altogether? I always figured it was just to balance out the demand and make DVC more functional. I think it'd be a mess if Easter week was the same number of points as mid-January, there'd be a lot of unhappy people. It sort of works as a form of "compensation" for the people who will travel during off times, when the park hours are reduced, rides are more likely to be shut down, etc...

Or, maybe it is just to sell more points to those who only want to travel during high seasons. If it is, I guess that's just good business; maximizing profits.

I really don't know, that's just a guess.

I'm just trying to understand the benefit to owners for seasons and seasonal reallocations. Owners have no choice other than to use their points, it's not like Disney trying to attract cash guests during slow periods. As I have posted before the same goes for increasing the point requirements for THV, why?

DVC has so few owners visiting WDW compared to the 48 million cash guests each year, there are only 250,000 owner families. I doubt that they would miss us if we got rid of the seasons.

Bill

 

[Dean]

allocations and any changes are a generalization. Making changes has cost and take personnel time. They'll make changes if things are TOO out of balance over several years over a broad range of weeks, not just one week. Unfortunately we don't have enough real info to make specific decisions on what needs to be changed. We can often get enough info over time to know IF changes might be needed. It took them almost 10 years from when they knew changes were needed last time to make any changes.

 

[mjc2003]

I'm just trying to understand the benefit to owners for seasons and seasonal reallocations. Owners have no choice other than to use their points, it's not like Disney trying to attract cash guests during slow periods. As I have posted before the same goes for increasing the point requirements for THV, why?

DVC has so few owners visiting WDW compared to the 48 million cash guests each year, there are only 250,000 owner families. I doubt that they would miss us if we got rid of the seasons.

Bill

I guess the benefit to the owners would be that those willing to travel at off times are compensated (for lack of a better word) by not having to use as many points. So, if you're willing to go in Mid-January, you might get 10 days instead of 7 during a prime time.

allocations and any changes are a generalization. Making changes has cost and take personnel time. They'll make changes if things are TOO out of balance over several years over a broad range of weeks, not just one week. Unfortunately we don't have enough real info to make specific decisions on what needs to be changed. We can often get enough info over time to know IF changes might be needed. It took them almost 10 years from when they knew changes were needed last time to make any changes.

I think the entire fall is too cheap, and that would constitute a "broad range of weeks". If what you are saying is true, that it took them 10 years AFTER they KNEW changes needed to be made, then that's a disgrace and an utter disservice to the members who pay a lot of money for their memberships. If the changes needed are to serve the best interest of their members, then they didn't do that. I guess that would also explain why the fall has been wildly popular for DVC members for several years now, but they have kept the points cheap. I guess they don't really care.

 

[disneynutz]

I guess the benefit to the owners would be that those willing to travel at off times are compensated (for lack of a better word) by not having to use as many points. So, if you're willing to go in Mid-January, you might get 10 days instead of 7 during a prime time.

But the owners who travel during the prime times as chosen by Disney are paying more for the privilege.

Seems like a lot of work to maintain the seasons and reallocations with limited benefits.

Bill

 

[Dean]

I think the entire fall is too cheap, and that would constitute a "broad range of weeks". If what you are saying is true, that it took them 10 years AFTER they KNEW changes needed to be made, then that's a disgrace and an utter disservice to the members who pay a lot of money for their memberships. If the changes needed are to serve the best interest of their members, then they didn't do that. I guess that would also explain why the fall has been wildly popular for DVC members for several years now, but they have kept the points cheap. I guess they don't really care.

I think it was unreasonable that they didn't reallocate earlier but it was different leadership. My view is they were too concerned about complaints to do so. I'm not convinced that the fall is too cheap but I'm sure some parts are, certainly early Dec is. Likely the fix, if they chose one, is to do away with adventure and adjust from there. I would say they don't want to micromanage though.

 

[Sandisw]

No question the fall will be busy because of all these reasons you mention. And we too own at BCV for that reason, to book early. I also agree that BCV and BWV specifically would both be busy, but my contention is that the points should reflect the demand of these busy times. To my simple mind, having the rooms be "cheaper" during the busiest times sort of belies the logic behind having point seasons to begin with. The fluctuation in point costs from season to season are supposed to counterbalance demand.

I am contending that in the fall, the low points is contributing to the demand. And while I do agree that this would remain a popular time, the low points ARE a motivation for some who do travel in the fall. And that's ok, but why not see if they can drive some of that traffic to less busy times? Every time somebody posts here asking why the fall is so busy, the response is always the same: "F&W, low points, and holiday parties".

All I'm really saying is that point allocations are supposed to be a reactive mechanism that controls supply/demand to the extent that it can. The lower point seasons are designed to drive more traffic during slower times, and the high point seasons are to control demand by raising the "price". So why are the points the lowest (almost) during the busiest time of year? Why have high/low point seasons at all if they aren't going to coincide with high/low supply demand? Simply doesn't make sense.

And that is probably why we see it differently..I don't think that raising the points at BWV or BCV in the fall would dramatically change the lack of availability at the 7 month mark..while there may be a few that book during October due to lower cost, I wouldnt be surprised if the majority of people trading in to those two resorts in October do so because of of F & W. Right now, the dates in each season are the same across all the WDW resorts. If its not all the resorts that are experiencing the same demand issues for October, then they'd have to look at now making different seasons for different resorts. If not, they'd be raising the cost to stay at say OKW or SSR or AKV, which is not experiencing an issue right now...

I do agree that early December might require a change, but only because booking at 11 months is difficult... when you are talking the 7 month mark for resorts that have a very particular reason for being that popular,but only those resorts, then I don't agree it's an indication things are out of whack...

 

[tjkraz]

I still don't see the benefit of charging more points for busy times, when the resort is full, it's full. Owners who didn't get the reservation that they wanted will have to book at a different time or at a different resort.

"When it's full, it's full" is only half of the equation. Not only do they charge more points during the peak demand periods, they also charge less during slower times. They already have trouble filling the DVC resorts now during August, September and most of January. The problem would be even worse if costs for those dates were increased as part of a flat cost system.

The variable point charts aren't exactly a necessity but they do boost member satisfaction in the long run. With even costs, a greater percentage of members would buy with the expectation of being able to book the peak demand periods. Many would be unsuccessful and their satisfaction would fall accordingly.

From a sales standpoint, DVC would sell fewer points to individuals targeting the peak periods.

A Savanna View Two Bedroom at AKV is currently 485 points during Christmas Week (Premier Season.) Drop everything down to Dream season and suddenly it's only 317 points. DVC sells 168 fewer points to an owner wishing to frequent those dates.

Meanwhile the same week in what is now Adventure Season goes up 44 points, making an already unappealing time even less appealing. Even those who gravitate toward early December would see their costs go up 15-20%...more points to buy or fewer trips taken.

The theme park resorts wouldn't be irreparably damaged since there is always some inherent demand. Vero, Hilton Head and Aulani would be another story.

Overall it's a mechanism for managing expectations and fostering owner satisfaction.

 

[Dean]

Overall it's a mechanism for managing expectations and fostering owner satisfaction.

In a nutshell, nice post.

 

[lilpooh108]

I think the entire fall is too cheap, and that would constitute a "broad range of weeks".

Would you still feel this way if: (1) DVC sold you the 7 points you wanted? OR (2) you happened to have enough points to book that last night?

I agree with the poster above who said that availability at 7 months would NOT be dramatically different for F&W/Early Dec even if they raised the points for that season.

In April, there's just not that much going on. The weather is getting hot and humid. People in schools are preparing for finals/end of the year exams. There's no major WDW festivals/events... There are a whole host of reasons (WDW induced or otherwise) why fall (MNSSHP, MVCMP, F&W, Pop Warner, Cheer, Parade Taping, Nicer weather, Half Marathon) might be more popular than April.

I live close to Disneyland, and April (after Spring Break, before May Grad nights) is the best time to go. There's just no one around.

 

[Pirate Granny]

We plan an extended family vaca May/June 2014... So I held my breath until those point charts came out. Our trip is based on my home resorts and points I have available to bank/borrow.. We wiIll go for 13 nights OKW GV and two nights at BCV 2 bedroom and studio. You know the rules and you work within the system for no disappointments.

 

[mjc2003]

And that is probably why we see it differently..I don't think that raising the points at BWV or BCV in the fall would dramatically change the lack of availability at the 7 month mark..while there may be a few that book during October due to lower cost,
I do agree that early December might require a change, but only because booking at 11 months is difficult... when you are talking the 7 month mark for resorts that have a very particular reason for being that popular,but only those resorts, then I don't agree it's an indication things are out of whack...

I agree that the fall will always be popular. That's why the points should be higher.
Also, as I mentioned earlier, last year we found very little availability at all the resorts for our fall trip. Except for SSR, we couldn't get a week anywhere. So while I do realize that BCV and BWV will always be popular, I'm not basing my opinion off just that. It's not only those resorts. ALL the resorts in October will be busier than ALL the resorts in late April, yet the points in late April are 25% higher. It just doesn't make sense to me.

Would you still feel this way if: (1) DVC sold you the 7 points you wanted? OR (2) you happened to have enough points to book that last night?

Honestly, no to both. Firstly, the 7 points was another issue. I initially was curious as to why the one time points couldn't be rented until the 7 month mark. Once that was sufficiently explained, I didn't disagree with the reasoning and it makes sense. As for having enough points to book that last night, I think the fact that I'm arguing for higher points for the fall (which would have left me even shorter) proves that this wasn't about me not having enough points. It was the exercise in booking two trips at two different times of year that opened my eyes to what I perceive to be an imbalance.

I agree with the poster above who said that availability at 7 months would NOT be dramatically different for F&W/Early Dec even if they raised the points for that season.

You are probably right, the demand would probably remain high, though I do think a percentage of people would gravitate to the lower points seasons (if adjusted).

In April, there's just not that much going on. The weather is getting hot and humid. People in schools are preparing for finals/end of the year exams. There's no major WDW festivals/events... There are a whole host of reasons (WDW induced or otherwise) why fall (MNSSHP, MVCMP, F&W, Pop Warner, Cheer, Parade Taping, Nicer weather, Half Marathon) might be more popular than April.

All which seems to bolster my argument that the fall should be higher and the late spring should be lower. I agree that the fall is a nice time to visit WDW, that's when we go every year. I'm only saying that the four "seasons" that DVC enacted to allocate points are based on demand. So since we all seem to be in agreement that the fall is super busy, why aren't the points allocated accordingly?

 

[Dean]

All which seems to bolster my argument that the fall should be higher and the late spring should be lower. I agree that the fall is a nice time to visit WDW, that's when we go every year. I'm only saying that the four "seasons" that DVC enacted to allocate points are based on demand. So since we all seem to be in agreement that the fall is super busy, why aren't the points allocated accordingly?

I'm not sure the demand is especially higher during the season you mention, actually much of it is lower there are certain times that are higher. DVC is going to go by a month at a time unless a specific week is dramatic (Easter, Xmas). Other than early Dec and Thanksgiving, I haven't see any time in the fall that seems overly busy to me over the past few years if you look at ALL resorts. It costs time and money to make such changes, they can't be done on the fly or a whim. It's really only been a couple of years since the last change which took 2 years. I't think about a 5 year eval time would be right plus another 2 years to make changes.

 

[Sammie]

Obviously I did not express myself well, as I don't think you got what I was intending to share.

You posted in your first post you were frustrated over 7 points. If you had more points, would you have gotten frustrated? Would you still think that the points need reallocating; that was all I was wondering which I see you answered above.

As to the wait list, you posted there were times that nothing is available during certain months, and I wondered if you had ever used wait list for those times and not been successful. Because we go at different times of the year and we have always been successful getting a place to stay.

As to raising the points in the fall and lowering in the Spring, wouldn't that create possibly the same situation just change when it happens.

So would we then have members frustrated that they can't get anything in the Spring.

 

[bobbiwoz]

It's a bit over a month away and I tried for a BWV 2 bedroom, any view for my 5 night BWV stay in 2 studios in April. I figured if BWV was open, I would spend more points to get us together. It's not open.

 

[mjc2003]

Other than early Dec and Thanksgiving, I haven't see any time in the fall that seems overly busy to me over the past few years if you look at ALL resorts. It costs time and money to make such changes, they can't be done on the fly or a whim. It's really only been a couple of years since the last change which took 2 years. I't think about a 5 year eval time would be right plus another 2 years to make changes.

Taking a week in mid-October, almost 7 months away, I can't get more than 1-2 nights out of 7 at BCV, BLT, BWV, VWL in a 1 bedroom (usually last to book). Even a few of the categories at AKV are already missing consecutive nights. OKW and SSR have availability but they don't appear as open as they are even just a month from today (treehouses are booked, as are GV's---I can get a treehouse or a GV end of April).

That's October. I know November through Thanksgiving is very busy (save for the week after F&W). I know December is a logjam.

I am looking at all resorts. The fall is categorically busier than the late spring, specifically later in April when the points are 25% higher.
I'm not suggesting anything be done on a whim or on the fly. I'm sure they have the capacity to evaluate these types of things, but by your own words it took them 10 years to react last time and I don't buy the notion that it takes a decade to evaluate these things. We've been coming down since 2009 during the fall, and I know since then I've been reading about how busy that time of year is for DVC. That's not whimsical, that's a proven pattern. I'm sort of confused by all these responses agreeing that the fall is really busy, but that the fact that the points don't correspond doesn't seem to matter. Isn't that why they have point seasons?

Again, my issue isn't that it shouldn't be busy in the fall. It's that the points should correspond to the busier times, and I've read a million times on these boards that the fall is basically the busiest time of year for DVC. So the points should correspond.

Maybe I'm missing something. To me it's simple: Point seasons are designed to balance demand, higher points are designated to busier times, but the busiest "season" of the year has some of the lowest points. Seems screwy to me.

 

[DebbieB]

I went March 3 to 8. When the weather forecast for cool weather came out, I considered moving my trip to March 10-15. Nothing was available, not even SSR.

 

[disneynutz]

I went March 3 to 8. When the weather forecast for cool weather came out, I considered moving my trip to March 10-15. Nothing was available, not even SSR.

60 days prior to any given date, available rooms are turned over to Disney for cash reservations.

Bill

 

[Dean]

Taking a week in mid-October, almost 7 months away, I can't get more than 1-2 nights out of 7 at BCV, BLT, BWV, VWL in a 1 bedroom (usually last to book). Even a few of the categories at AKV are already missing consecutive nights. OKW and SSR have availability but they don't appear as open as they are even just a month from today (treehouses are booked, as are GV's---I can get a treehouse or a GV end of April).

That's October. I know November through Thanksgiving is very busy (save for the week after F&W). I know December is a logjam.

I am looking at all resorts. The fall is categorically busier than the late spring, specifically later in April when the points are 25% higher.
I'm not suggesting anything be done on a whim or on the fly. I'm sure they have the capacity to evaluate these types of things, but by your own words it took them 10 years to react last time and I don't buy the notion that it takes a decade to evaluate these things. We've been coming down since 2009 during the fall, and I know since then I've been reading about how busy that time of year is for DVC. That's not whimsical, that's a proven pattern. I'm sort of confused by all these responses agreeing that the fall is really busy, but that the fact that the points don't correspond doesn't seem to matter. Isn't that why they have point seasons?

Again, my issue isn't that it shouldn't be busy in the fall. It's that the points should correspond to the busier times, and I've read a million times on these boards that the fall is basically the busiest time of year for DVC. So the points should correspond.

Maybe I'm missing something. To me it's simple: Point seasons are designed to balance demand, higher points are designated to busier times, but the busiest "season" of the year has some of the lowest points. Seems screwy to me.

I agree with you in principle, that broad times (full month or so) that are (big picture) clearly busier over the long haul should be adjusted if they are too far out of whack. In my view, if all resorts, times and villa sizes have the appropriately balance then the 7 month window will always be a problem. The fact that there is any availability outside the wait list at 7 months to me is more a resort imbalance than a timing imbalance. You also have to look at what days tend to be available. In my estimation, they likely overdid the rebalancing last time making weekends too cheap in comparison so if it's mostly weekdays available and weekends inc Sunday not, then that may be a different issue than you portray. One can then ask why they haven't rebalanced early Dec and I can't say for sure. Maybe they didn't think it far out enough or that a long enough period is affected. Jan is also more in demand than before which brings up the other point. This is an issue that has and does change over time. The seasons and relative balances are set on around 1990 & 91 and to a degree, they're somewhat stuck with the underlying issues to a degree.

I think you have to look at a 4-5 year window and look for clear trends in order to make such a change. Remember the cost for this type of change is NOT insignificant. You may or may not be right but looking this fall or even last and this is simply not enough info to make an informed judgement and DVC has not had enough time to evaluate the last change and then formulate a change. My guess is it'll take a min of about 6-7 years before another is likely, 4-5 years to evaluate trends after the completion of the 2 year change and another 2 years to get it done and implemented. The change for SSR this year was FAR simpler than the change you're discussing.