George, you are right to question. It wouldn't be pretty to get out of that show and be stuck.
I have seen the buses even after the earlier shows. I haven't personally even gone to the late show but have read many times on the Transportation board about buses to all WDW resorts after that show. Again the buses are shared though.
If using WDW transportation, the way to get to the Hoop is to go to MK and then transfer to a boat to FW/WL. You can do that without entering the MK.
I have also read that the FW buses from MGM go straight to the Settlement so taking a bus to MGM and transferring would be another option...if that info is still current. But personally I would do the bus and then the boat. The boat is fun and you know it will be running right to the Settlement where the Hoop is located.
There is a current bus driver, Cranbiz I think, and a former driver (Chip'nDaleExpress who is also a moderator) who post on the transportation board. For reassurance, why not ask over there too?
Happy planning and again, it is smart to doublecheck.