OKW resale prices May 2013

[dmunsil]

In the home stretch!

These are the resales and ROFRs recorded for May 2013 at Old Key West.

The title companies are Magic Vacation Title (***), First American Title (FAT), and Timeshare Title & More (TTM).

Standard caveats apply:

- The date listed is the date on the deed, which is typically shortly after the ROFR waiver comes. The actual price was negotiated 3-4 weeks prior, so these prices are lagging about 2 months.

- The price is calculated from the Florida deed document tax, which gives the price to the next highest multiple of $100. As a way of trying to compensate for that, I've rounded all of the prices down to the nearest dollar, which I think is right more often than not.

Sales:
Date    Points  UY       Sale PPP  TitleCo 
16-Apr  300     Feb      $55.00    ***
19-Apr  50      Sep      $68.00    ***
19-Apr  50      Feb      $66.00    ***
20-Apr  100     Jun      $62.00    ***
20-Apr  200     Jun      $60.00    ***
23-Apr  100     Feb      $66.00    ***
23-Apr  440     Feb      $63.00    ***
23-Apr  100     Feb      $65.00    ***
25-Apr  230     Apr      $60.00    TTM
25-Apr  310     Apr      $66.00    TTM
25-Apr  900     Oct      $55.00    ***
25-Apr  210     Dec      $57.00    ***
26-Apr  100     Oct      $60.00    FAT
26-Apr  300     Apr      $59.00    TTM
28-Apr  460     Sep      $54.00    TTM
30-Apr  50      Feb      $68.00    ***
30-Apr  232     Dec      $58.00    ***
2-May   344     Sep      $59.00    ***
6-May   80      Feb      $67.00    ***
6-May   200     Dec      $60.00    ***
7-May   150     Dec      $60.00    ***
13-May  250     Mar      $60.00    TTM
14-May  210     Dec      $57.00    ***
16-May  40      Feb      $70.00    ***
21-May  210     Aug      $78.00    TTM
24-May  50      Apr      $68.00    ***
24-May  180     Apr      $62.00    ***
24-May  50      Aug      $72.00    ***
                             
ROFR:                                
Date    Points  UY      Sale PPP   
6-Apr   232     Jun      $47.00    
18-Apr  120     Sep      $60.00    
18-Apr  55      Sep      $65.00    
22-Apr  60      Mar      $58.00    
23-Apr  210     Mar      $51.00    
25-Apr  230     Jun      $60.00    
29-Apr  230     Jun      $62.00

Median sale price was $61. Median ROFR price was $60.

Looking at the mean rather than the median they separate more, to $62.68 and $57.57, respectively. The median has always made more sense to me when analyzing these numbers, but I can't articulate why, other than it's thrown off less by outliers. Can anyone think of a good reason to report the mean rather than the median?

Another thing that makes the comparing the sales and ROFR averages (whether mean or median) problematic is that they cover a different time period. Disney is very slow about filing their ROFR deeds, either because it's not a high priority or because they don't want people to know what they're ROFRing. So the ROFR numbers lag the sales numbers by 3-4 weeks. If I had a longer data set, it would probably make more sense to report by months using the dates on the deeds. But then more deeds from earlier months would come rolling in, requiring going back and adjusting the previous numbers. So grouping them by recording dates is easier.

 

[NoleFan]

For OKW, the difference in contract expiration. Original or extended expiration?

 

[dmunsil]

For OKW, the difference in contract expiration. Original or extended expiration?

Ooh, good point. I wasn't looking at that. I'm not even sure if it's on the deed. I'll go back and take a look and see if I can tell.

BTW, you might want to edit your post and remove the massive quote block, or edit it down to a shorter chunk; it's a little over the top now.

 

[Pootle]

Very interesting. Thanks from me too for doing this

 

[goneviral]

Looking at the mean rather than the median they separate more, to $62.68 and $57.57, respectively. The median has always made more sense to me when analyzing these numbers, but I can't articulate why, other than it's thrown off less by outliers. Can anyone think of a good reason to report the mean rather than the median?

Speaking as a potential buyer who meticulously reads these threads, mean makes more sense for me. That's the nice, sloppy number that identifies to me whether a price I see at the resale sites is in line with the completed deals from a couple of months ago. The median represents the aggregate middle point of these specific transactions, which isn't as timeless in my estimation. During a month with higher/lower volume, the media should demonstrate less stability whereas the mean will track in line with actual consumer behavior over time. That's my two cents, anyway. Whatever you decide, I sincerely appreciate your sweat of brow in this area of data collation.

 

[77kool]

We would have rotten luck to be the OKW contract that was ROFRd at $65pp.

 

[dmunsil]

We would have rotten luck to be the OKW contract that was ROFRd at $65pp.

Wow, that's no fun. My sympathies. If you don't mind sharing, was there anything extra-special about the contract or the deal? Was it extra-loaded? Were the sellers paying dues and closing? Have you ever wished on a monkey's paw?

Anything else come to mind?

 

[77kool]

Wow, that's no fun. My sympathies. If you don't mind sharing, was there anything extra-special about the contract or the deal? Was it extra-loaded? Were the sellers paying dues and closing? Have you ever wished on a monkey's paw?

Anything else come to mind?

It was extra loaded. It was a September UY and had all points 2011 and forward. Plus, we split the closing costs. We asked the seller to bank the 2012 points into 2013 also. I'm not sad about it though. We are waiting for 100 points at VWL. On the other hand, Disney made a stupid mistake because we would have added about 60 points at VGF on.... (sighs)

 

[wdrl]

Ooh, good point. I wasn't looking at that. I'm not even sure if it's on the deed. I'll go back and take a look and see if I can tell.

As far as I can tell, there are very few hard and firm ways to tell if an OKW deed expires in 2042 or 2057. All OKW deeds sold direct by DVD after some date in 2008 (I don't know the exact date) have the 2057 extension. With all other deeds you must make educated guesses.

If an OKW owner was offered the extension but turned it down, then there will be a Quitclaim Deed filed with OCC. The owner is shown as the Grantor and DVD is shown as the Grantee. Most Quitclaims were filed in 2008 and 2009, but there are still a few showing up every month on the OCC database. You can be almost sure that the presence of a Quitclaim Deed indicates that the OKW deed expires in 2042. However, I've heard of a couple of cases where the original owner filed a Quitclaim but a subsequent buyer requested an extension from DVD. I don't know how these types of deeds appear on the OCC website.

If you don't find a Quitclaim Deed, then the deed probably was extended to 2057. However, not finding a Quitclaim deed might mean its been mislabeled on the OCC website, the owner changed their name or title so its difficult to trace, etc. Using the absence of something to prove something else is always fraught with problems.

There are some people who believe DVD is more willing to ROFR a non-extended OKW deed than an extended deed. This is one of those hypotheses that are difficult to support or reject because of the limited data available to outside observers.