Heres the latest expert summary from
www.accuweather.com...After reading it, it seems that if Gamma makes landfall in Belize, that it will start to fall apart and not threaten Florida as a strong storm, hopefully that is what happens.
Today's Discussion
Gamma has formed in the Northwest Caribbean
Posted: 18-NOV-2005 8:09pm EST
By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
Tropical Storm Gamma is located near 16.2 north...85.7 west or 180 miles east-southeast of Belize City, Belize. Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph. Gamma is moving west-northwest at 4 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles north and northeast of the storm's center. The central pressure is 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.
Gamma should continue to intensify Friday night and into Saturday. The storm will reach a point very close to the coast of Belize on Saturday. If Gamma makes landfall along the coast of Belized then it will weaken. However, if Gamma moves slow and then turns more north as some computer models are suggesting then it will stay over water and will have the opportunity to strenghten further. Water temperatures over the Gulf of Honduras and the northwest Caribbean are warm enough for Gamma to intensify but not as warm as they were when Willma was around a few weeks ago. Therefore it is unlikely that Gamma will become a real strong system. However, if Gamma can stay over water during the next couple of days and have only minimal interation with the coastline it could strengthen to near hurricane force. The track that Gamma takes is highly dependent on the orientation and strength of an upper level trough that will swing down into the Gulf of Mexico during tomorrow night and Sunday. Current thinking is that a high pressure ridge to the north will cause Gamma to move slowly west northwest tonight into tomorrow. Then this ridge will start to weaken as one upper level trough swings across the northwest Gulf tomorrow then the stronger trough starts to dive southward during tomorrow night. In response to this weakening Gamma will start to move northwest then north during later tomorrow and tomorrow night. This thinking takes Gamma through the Yucatan Straits on Sunday then northeast across south Florida on Monday.
If Gamma keeps moving west northwest and does not make the turn to the northwest then north it will make landfall along the coast of Belieze sometime tomorrow. If that happens then Gamma could weaken to the point where it would start to fall apart. Some computer model output suggests this might happen and that Gamma or the remnants of Gamma will drift eastward. So, there is a lot of uncertainty at this point on the strength and movement of Gamma.
We believe moisture from Gamma will help enhance rainfall over Florida and into the Southeast U.S. as another storm, non tropical, develops over the northeast Gulf and southeast U.S. during Sunday. That storm should stay independent from Gamma and even if Gamma does track close to or over south Florida it will still stay a separate feature as it heads into the western Atlantic just off the eastern U.S. coast Monday night and Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday it should become a non tropical system.
We are still keeping an eye on the upper level low located roughly near 24 north and 54 west. This system remains near warm enough water to become an organized tropical feature over the weekend. However, satellite images show no trend toward this just yet. If thunderstorms start forming around the center of this system that could be a sign that it is trying to become a tropical system.