Official Hurricane Ivan Thread

[jcemom]

Originally posted by erinch
Do any of you hurricane watchers know of sites which project path and strength scenarios once these storms hit land and "move on up"?

We live in western pa and were hit with massive flooding when Frances got to us. Even the local forecasters were so focussed on the Florida impact that they didn't get around to thinking about inland destinations till it was almost on top of us.

I'm in no way saying our situation is comparable or worthy of notice by Floridians and all those in Ivan's direct path. But wondering what sites are best for inland predictions?

Looks like he'll be heading our way towards the end of the week if you haven't seen the latest Forecast Track.

Edited to add: I hope everyone with family in Ivan's path stays safe...here's hoping he weakens in the Gulf...

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 120849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN THREATENS GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER...OR VERY NEAR...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121140
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN THREATENS GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER...OR VERY NEAR...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS IS CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 919 MB...27.14 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...18.8 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 919 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 121436
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN PASSING CLOSE TO GRAND CAYMAN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 110 MPH...HAVE BEEN
MEASURED ON GRAND CAYMAN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 919 MB...27.14 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.0 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 919 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[CM_Mom]

A little late posting but really no significant change. The 5:00 report will have the discussion about what they think will happen next.

Here's the link to the 2:00pm infoHURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A at 2:00 pm 9/12/04
Short version:
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 922 MB.

Winds down slightly and pressure up slightly means Ivan is SLIGHTLY weaker. Still strong Category 4 (130 - 155mph)

WEAKEN, Ivan WEAKEN and prayers for the folks in Grand Cayman that have been experiencing 100+ mph winds.

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122042
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN NOW HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...WATCH AND WARNING ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO....INCLUDING COZUMEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN END OF CUBA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 916 MB...27.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON
GRAND CAYMAN INDICATE THAT PEOPLE ARE STANDING ON THE ROOFS OF
HOMES DUE TO SEVERE STORM SURGE FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 916 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[CM_Mom]

This image from Hurricane Alley gives a good representation of the predicted track wind speeds.

 

[Honeychild]

Hey CM Mom and yamaha boy I live in Okaloosa County too. Ivan is starting to worry me greatly. My family and I rode out OPAL and I made a promise to myself that I would NEVER do that again.

My brother-in-law went to the Lowe's in Crestview today to buy plywood and duck tape...they were completely sold out. Fortunately we had already bought ours (We just got home today off the 9/9 Wonder and my husband boarded up everything before we left.) They told him they would be getting another load in the morning, he plans to get there early in the am and wait until it arrives.

 

[LindaBabe]

although the eye barely missed the islalnd to the south. I've been monitoring the stormcarib.com bulletin board for 24 hours - there has been lots of damage reports of roofs torn off, and water running 4 feet deep in some streets. cars floating away,and even rising in one of the hospital shelters to the point they had to move to the second floor. So far there have been no reports of injury or death in the caymens but communications are still sketchy. Prayers for the safety of all in Ivan's path.

 

[budwmn]

The Weather Channel reported that many people on Grand Cayman had taken to their roofs because the storm surge went so high. I can't imagine being outside on a roof with hurricane force winds. What a nightmare!

 

[yamahaboy]

Honeychild-I believe Opal was the storm that scared my in-laws into moving back to Chicago and they weren't even there when it hit. I don't remember what cat. Opal was but they lived in a different house then and lost more than half of the shingles on their house as well as a lot of large tree branches and other debris in their yard. I can't imagine what they must be going through now. My father-in-law is 72 and is not in the best health but he has friends in the area who hopefully have been helping to secure their house. We don't really know where they are going go to evacuate to. Their options are limited b/c they have a dog who is their pride and joy. They would never leave him behind. I am very concerned for them and their home. I hope everything is all right but the current track is for a direct hit on the Oskaloosa County area. Are you planning to evacuate? My thoughts are with everyone in your area and hoping that Ivan will weaken considerably over the next 2 days!

 

[CM_Mom]

Whoops, this bad boy won't go away.

Ivan is back up to Category 5 status with maximum sustained winds of near 160 with higher gusts. They keep expecting Ivan to turn to the NW and then to the North but so far that hasn't happened. I'm getting really concerned about what intensity Ivan will have when he reaches the US coast.

Another cool site I found for those of us who are tracking and information fanatics is http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm.

Do you get the feeling that I don't have enough to do? Actually I'm just not doing the things I should be doing or I have the Weather channel on while I fold clothes and pay bills, etc. The DisBoards aren't the only thing that is addicting! Guess I'm just a weather junkie.

FYI, I was just scanning down the thread to see what everyone had posted and noticed that the Hurricane Alley projections that I posted seems to be a link that is updating every so often. It's now showing the 11pm projections so you guys might want to check it out every now and then if you're interested.

The only good news I've found in the forecast is that it looks like those folks in Central Florida who have suffered SO much will miss this one and hopefully can begin moving on with their lives and cleaning up the mess from Charley and Frances.

Prayers for all involved in the path of Ivan, past and future.

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131148
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...IVAN STILL A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE HEADED FOR WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS WATCH
COULD BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
180 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT MOTION...THE CENTER COULD MISS
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 919 MB...27.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 84.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 919 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[DVC4US]

CM_Mom, yamahaboy, & Honeychild I am also keeping a close eye on this storm. I also have family in the panhandle(Okaloosa County) - grandmother and other relatives live in Niceville and I also have relatives that live in Freeport. Unfortunately most of them live in mobile homes so I am trying to make sure they evacuate early. My Aunt is supposed to have knee surgery tomorrow but I think it should be cancelled. For Opal they waited until the last minute and ended up riding out the storm on the freeway in all the traffic. My grandmother told me yesterday that they were planning to go over to Texas, but I am not sure that is the way to go with this thing is constantly shifting west.

All thoughts and prayers are with those in the Panhandle and those in So FL still trying to recover.

LeiLani

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WONT41 KNHC 131300
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[Krystina'sMommy]

Originally posted by HumanCookie
000
WONT41 KNHC 131300
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
AND IT WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

FORECASTER STEWART

Ok, not the best news considering we are preparing to leave Saturday morning from TX to Orlando to board the Sept 19th Wonder! I know there are greater things in this world to worry about than a vacation (we all witnessed the flames in one of the other threads when someone complained about their vacation being ruined) but right now that is my (emphasis on MY) concern.

Hoping to board the Wonder on Sunday.....................

(Should I put my "fire" suit on now? )

 

[HumanCookie]

No don't worry. No one's gonna flame you.

You're just telling like it is.

Looking forward to a nice cruise (vacation) but mother nature is gonna ruin it, it's not fair.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 131429
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN HEADING TOWARD WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SAND KEY IN THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH WITH A GUST TO 48 MPH
DURING THE PASSAGE OF AN OUTER RAINBAND OF IVAN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[lilpritch04]

Originally posted by Krystina'sMommy
Ok, not the best news considering we are preparing to leave Saturday morning from TX to Orlando to board the Sept 19th Wonder! I know there are greater things in this world to worry about than a vacation (we all witnessed the flames in one of the other threads when someone complained about their vacation being ruined) but right now that is my (emphasis on MY) concern.

Hoping to board the Wonder on Sunday.....................

(Should I put my "fire" suit on now? )

I think there are many people concerned about their vacations. That doesn't mean that they don't feel badly for everyone that is suffering from some of the more severe aspects of the hurricane. DH and I are to leave on 9/26 for our Land/Sea HM package and I am worried about our vacation as well. DH is also supposed to fly out on Thurs to MCO and we're not sure what will happen with that.

I hope that your vacation goes well, if you still get to go and enjoy it.

Here's wishing and hoping for the best--for everyone.

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT34 KNHC 131738
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 IVAN CONTINUING ITS SLOW MOVEMENT
TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 914 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART