Official Hurricane Ivan Thread

[currycook]

YUK YUK YUK

They have turned the track up into Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/061453W5.gif

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Well, at least we're preparing early this time--err...make that, barely anyone has taken down their boards and those like us who had to take some down still have them propped by the window.

 

[CM_Mom]

Here's the latest:

HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A 8 am est 8/9/04

Short story: currently forecast to go right up the Florida Peninsula. They're only really consistent out 48 hours so lets pray something changes.

CAT 5 - 160 mph winds.

YIKES-A-RAMA

 

[MarkRG]

Key West just ordered evacuation of all tourists and mobile homes. This isn't looking good folks.

 

[allears]

Let's keep sending positive thoughts out to the ocean. Hurricanes are noturiously unpredicable. Even Frances, up unitl a few hours before she hit the weather channel was not 100% where she'd go. So let's hope that Ivan vears off somewhere that it won't do any harm.

 

[markey]

Just looked at MSNBC and their path does show Florida as its course - what was interesting to me is that its hit would be Monday, the 13th.

 

[Tonyspad]

I can not tell from the current maps, but how close at this point is it expected to be from WDW?

 

[CM_Mom]

WDW is Latitude 28.33N; Longitude 81.21W according to WDWMAGIC.com.

The 11 am projections put Ivan the Terrible at 28.5N 82.0W on the 14th with winds around 95 mph.

WAAAAAY to close for my comfort.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.

I'll post the links to the latest forecast when it comes out in about 30 minutes.

This ain't gettin any better folks. Many prayers are needed.

 

[CM_Mom]

Here's the latest. We'll know more when they post the 5:00 pm full advisory but I REALLY DON'T like what I'm seeing.

HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A at 2:00 pm 9/9/04

For an interesting view of Ivan moving along the various predictions check this link:Ivan the Terrible moves along

This isn't getting any better.

 

[HumanCookie]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 091741
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS THAT IVAN CONTINUES
TO BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...HEADING FOR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160
MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[panthergirl]

A little more information on South Florida preparations:

Titans-Dolphins game moved to Saturday


(Sept. 9, 2004) -- To accommodate the Miami community in preparing to deal with the approach of Hurricane Ivan, the Miami Dolphins' home game against the Tennessee Titans has been rescheduled for Saturday, Sept. 11, at 1 p.m. ET at Pro Player Stadium. The game originally was scheduled to be played on Sunday, Sept. 12, at 1 p.m. ET.

Moving the game to Saturday will enable emergency personnel and others in the Miami community to focus on preparing for the approach of Hurricane Ivan. The game is sold out and will be televised in the Miami and Tennessee home territories by CBS

 

[TheWog]

panthergirl...... still in Red Sox mode, but will soon be switching into full PATS mode. Game should be good tonight with the Colts. Sorry about February.

 

[panthergirl]

Hey TheWog, what's say we do again this year? Hoping for a different outcome though!

 

[Farms]

i know we're not supposed to post personal message, but has anyone heard from Shirley and Norm. With an evacuation of the Keys and the shop getting hit from Francis, I just want to make sure they're ok!!!

 

[TheGottis]

Most recent update from Tampa Bay area....

www.tbo.com should be on front page

Looks like a change in path... a GOOD change (at least for the Tampa area).

 

[ca859093]

Originally posted by TheGottis
Most recent update from Tampa Bay area....

www.tbo.com should be on front page

Looks like a change in path... a GOOD change (at least for the Tampa area).

Actually that is not good for us. Then we would be getting the worse side of the storm. This is just a step below getting hit by the eye.

 

[CM_Mom]

Ok, I'm home from work and catching up on the Advisories.

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 30 5:00pm 9/9/04

Here's the main part of the discussion:
THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 WHILE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BEFORE REACHING CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS DIVERGE. HOWEVER...MODELS FROM 12Z ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN EARLIER RUNS... AND IN GENERAL HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT.

The latest update:
Short version
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE

Full version.

HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A 8:00pm 9/9/04

Hopefully the westward turn will spare Florida and it will weaken after it crosses Cuba.

 

[Keggster1990]

Hello this is my first time posting on this forum .My family and I are to leave on our criuse Sunday sept 12 th by the looks of it leaveing Florida wont be a problem. But I was wondering what will happen while we are at sea it looks like a rainy sail from Port Canaveral to Nassua and most likely some rough seas . This is not my idea of a vacation. So if there is rain and rough sea what will happen???? I am hopeing that the Captain will that A huge berth of the rain and maybe even to a different port that is not rainy.Is this something that is considered by the captian or are we going to suffer the rain and seas to arrive at Nassua( God I hope not)

 

[CM_Mom]

Check out the Hurricane Alley graphic. I think it gives a better idea of which areas will be affected by the storm because the NOAA site shows all areas that "could" be affected depending on the path Ivan takes.

Hurricane Alley graphic

My guess is that if Ivan takes the path that's forecast the seas east of Florida won't be that bad and you'll have a wonderful time. Except for hurricanes, the rains in the Bahamas are usually squalls that move through and you get wet for a little while and then they move on.

 

[Keggster1990]

Thanks I hope your right and thanks for your quick reply