Offical Hurricane Frances thread!

[ganurse]

so even if the hurricane hit friday sometime or early sat morning, do you think we would still sail that weekend or do i need to call disney>

 

[CM_Mom]

ganurse, I think I would wait till maybe Wednesday or Thursday to see what Hurricane Frances does. Some of the computer models I've seen have Frances going toward Miami, another one shows it turning north before it gets to Florida and another one looks like it will go between Key West and Cuba Wunderground Computer Models

I think I'd wait to panic till later in the week. When there was a problem with Charley, DCL had a pop-up on their website with information.

Hang in there. We're all praying for safe cruising for everyone.

 

[pogopossum]

i'm not sure where his info came from, but our local nbc affiliate weatherman, after olympics primetime, had a frances update, and said that track would be into bahamas on tues and into us on wed, haven't seen that forecast anywhere else, but we can hope that he is right, as this track should leave us alone and not even damage ports before we get there.

 

[ganurse]

pogo where are you from. from looking at all the maps, it looks like it would go toward miami but i dont know anthing except how to draw a straight line. im not worry yet, i work the next 3 nights and then i plan on packing..woohoo

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Looks like she slowed down...

The forecast map had her for 2pm thursday for bahamas--the 11pm update says she'll be at the bahamas 8pm Thursday.

I think everything in her path would have to be annihilated (not hoping for that!!!!!) before a cruise would be cancelled. I'm sure they've got backup plans for backups for backups for backups!

I wish you all well..

Please add my house to your prayers! We are on the east cost--just about middle of the state! If she heads anywhere for the east coast and hurricane force winds predicted, we would be many of those evacuated---and a lightbulb just went off in my head--boy am I a dummy! I guess with an evacuated coastline, there would be no port to get to....

So double prayers for you cruisers---just do some triple prayers for home as I am 35 minutes south of the mouse boat.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

From CM_Mom's weblink--Sunday 5am advisory...


"Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours..

maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours and Frances could reach near category five intensity
later today. An airforce Reserve hurricane hunter will be
investigating the system later this afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km."

Yikes--Cat 5

 

[ganurse]

im carefully watching and hoping although my friends say you cant really judge this storm until wed or thurs so we will keep our vacation as planned..

 

[mostyn17]

They said this hurricane has no sheer...he said because of that, it won't break up. BUMMER! As of now...its still a Cat. 4

It looks like we may be batteling it out in Disney World!

My prayers are with all of you!

Stay safe!

Travis

 

[CRSNDSNY]

Can someone clarify because I'm reading everyone's posts, but am confused on the predicted path of Frances. Is she most likely to hit the east cost of FL or travel between Cuba and S. FL towards the Gulf and Texas?

 

[ganurse]

good question.the maps point to hitting florida and the report show somehope of going another direction

 

[Drcell01]

The next National Weather Service update on hurricane Frances is at 11 am this morning.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

From what I understand--predicting a hurricane is based on a few factors...Obviously current weather conditions directly affecting the hurricane--possible fronts and other weather systems currently affecting the weather in the US (why sometimes they predict a hurricane can steer clear into the ocean and hit nothing) and also what previous hurricanes did in similar situations over the history of data they have regarding hurricanes.

I think that is why the web-link provided early with the models for mulitple scenarios shows these various possibilities.

Keep in mind it is best to keep your plans the way you have them--b/c if you choose to change them, then it could be at your expenses in terms of lost deposits, flight change fees, et cetera. If you wait (if possible) until possible watches and warnings go up--you might garner some more compassion from the travel industry. Remember, boats sail and disney stays open rain or shine--and they only make decisions to totally change/cancel ports and itineraries or close the parks when there is some hard evidence fo a hurricane strike. In the case of CC--the captain had enough evidence of a high possibility that if he didn't do CC on Sunday--then it wouldn't happen later in the week. In the case of RCL--they left port early....if you are a late arriver to DCL--this may be the time to be an early riser and get there ASAP so you will definitely be on that boat.

In the case of Disney--they didn't even close the whole day--they just closed early--and that decision was made the night before the hurricane. And that was only because Orlando actually got a hurricane warning. In the events of TS watches and warnings and hurricane watches--they keep everything on schedule in the parks as much as humanly possible. The good news tidbit--those with PHP, didn't lose a day on there park hoppers for coming in that day and they had the run of the park to themselves pretty much.

Be sure to review your cancellation/change policies very carefully. If you have trip insurance--you are only covered in cancellations and delays in reality--not a "what if" scenario. In other words, something has to be imminent and flights getting cancelled and such for you to be compensated for it. If you cancel your cruise--you lose all of your money b/c chances are DCL would not cancel a cruise.

I'm just saying this b/c I would hate for people to lose money and then later be upset if XYZ happened instead and they could have gone on their vacation as planned

 

[RJake1]

I am not wanting to open old wounds, but diverting itinerary due to a Cat 4 Hurricane is a little bit different than diverting due to a Tropical Wave that produced winds averaging less than 10 mph.
Nuff said.

 

[Bigbaby]

My brother was in FLA a couple of weeks ago and had to leave/cut his vacation short. I just saw the news lastnight, and well... not to happy. I hope things turn out for the better.

See you onboard. My drive down start's in t-minus

 

[Carol RN]

We were on the Magic "mystery cruise" in October of 2001. We went to Castaway Cay twice that week, and to San Juan instead of St. Marteen. We went to St. Thomas as scheduled, though. It was certainly interesting, and it was great to be able to go to Castaway Cay twice on one week.

 

[ColeenD]

I am pretty worried about this one because right now it is forecast to go towards the Bahamas. I am taking 4 first time cruisers on the Wonder Thursday 9/2, and we are praying for decent weather. Can anyone tell me anything that would help me remain optimistic? Please..................

 

[Monstro]

I think you'll have an adventure. Disney will steer clear of the hurricane.. so no worries there. You'll be out of Orlando before the hurricane gets near. The best place to be is out to sea - They can steer clear of the hurricane. It will be exciting to see where you go for ports.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Perhaps you'll get to visit Key West or something--maybe a stop in Grand Cayman...hard to say. Sorry I do not have anything more optimistic to offer...the models have yet to change for the Bahamas because it is beyond the 72 hour window...perhaps it will be east of the bahamas--there is still room for Frances to be steered away from them.

 

[pogopossum]

i'm in dfw area and like i said i'm not sure where he got his info from, i'm just liking it and hoping he ma be right. it's the optomist in me, but the pragmatist says be ready for an interesting week.

 

[ColeenD]

Thanks guys. As long as there's no danger to anyone on land (those poor folks in Florida have had enough) and we don't spend three rainy days on the ship, I'm game for anywhere they want to sail.