October 20th 2007 Western Magic Part 8

[GOS]

Not concerned about the circulation in the South Central Caribbean?

They are saying it is moving west towards Nicaragua. But with it that far out I don't think they can precisely predict it. I would be most concerned about that. Weather Channel pointed this out this morning and this is what NOAA says about it:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W.​

Then there are those Lows that keep forming right off of the Yucatan at the west end of the trough that goes from the southern Bahamas to Cancun. Weather Channel says they are only rain events and the seas are only at 4 feet, so that will mean smooth sailing, just possible wetness. When I was watching the last couple, they said they are so close to the mainland that they probably won't have time to form. All you need is one to be a little further out in the warmer water and it could develop rather quickly.

They said some of the moisture should push up towards TX in the next 3 days. I'm hoping that means the trough will pull north and off of Grand Cayman and Cozumel.

I think Wednesday and Thursday will give us a good feel if we're safe. Hopefully the Low in the South will do nothing or move due west and not turn north.

And that is again in English, Jeff?

 

[cntkg1]

What is everyone doing in Cozumel?
We were going to do Ixcharet, but decided against it due to budgets. Now we are going to do some shopping and maybe going down to Paradise Beach.

We're doing the Dune Buggies Becky.

PS. I had very strange dreams last night filled with dogs who worked at the airport as baggage handlers ... I guess I spent too much time on the thread last night.

What is the general rule for kids as far as dressing for dinner on cruise casual nights. Is it ever appropriate for the kids to wear shorts to dinner?

We are plowing through the packing activities. Whew! Packing for a cruise is more challenging than going to the beach for a week. There it is just shorts, swimwear and t-shirts.

VA Mike, as far as I know, shorts are not allowed at dinner. I don't believe you will get kicked out of a dining room but it is frowned upon. Also, FYI...there are a few cruisers that take the dress code VERY SERIOUSLY and will think nothing of letting you know that they think shorts in a dining room is inappropriate. Just a heads up.

 

[GOS]

At this point, I think it's still a little bit too soon to tell. The seas have been rather smooth, up to 4 foot waves (we've had in the teens on a couple of cruises).

If that trough doesn't push north (or south for that matter) we could be seeing a chance of rain any day that week. It has been sitting in the same place for over a week. It looked like it was raining in Coz last week when the ship was there and on that same day (the day after GC), it was pouring in GC. I'd like to see it move from where it is at. Not that we'd get rerouted if it stays there, but that we could have wet weather.

The lows off of the Yucatan keep popping up as well. They keep saying they are too close to land to turn into anything. Could one form a little further east on that line? I don't know. Not sure what that would mean. It would have more time over the warm water (which is used to fuel the storms).

Lastly, I first heard about the circulation in the Southern Caribbean this morning on the WC. I then checked out what NOAA had on it. From the satellite they showed on the WC, you can clearly see the circulation. That would be my concern at the moment if it turns NW or N.

I'm like Steve, in full weather watch mode now (not like I wasn't 2 weeks ago - that is how I know that trough has been sitting there so long ). I'll probably be catching the Tropical Update 50 past the hour) on the WC morning, early evening and late night everyday along with checking the NHC site on NOAA, www.nhc.noaa.gov, everyday if not twice, along with the Intellicast forecast and analysis pages.

Thanks Jeff..just have to wait and see!

 

[cntkg1]

And that is again in English, Jeff?

I agree! Can you sum it up in one sentence or less please?

 

[JLDSMD]

I agree! Can you sum it up in one sentence or less please?

Fine, I won't give my analysis any more than.

 

[cntkg1]

Cinnimike:

Tony, Jesse, and Chuck want to know the 5 W's of this b-ball game. Well maybe not the last W, but at least the first 4.

Are you playing teams or are you just shooting around?

 

[cntkg1]

Fine, I won't give my analysis any more than.

Oh waaaa! Should I call the Waaaaaambulance?

 

[MinnMick01]

Fine, I won't give my analysis any more than.

Oh Jeff you can give your analysis anytime, but you have to give a translation for it in English because not many of us understand what the heck you are talking about.

 

[MinnMick01]

Oh waaaa! Should I call the Waaaaaambulance?

I have never heard of that one before I like it.

 

[MinnMick01]

I am off to go wake Scott up so we can do the lawns. We are overseading today so we have to cut it short and then seed.

 

[JLDSMD]

Oh waaaa! Should I call the Waaaaaambulance?

 

[oybolshoi]

Most of the laundry is done ... my bathrooms are clean ... just have packing left to do and we'll probably end up doing that tonight before we go to bed for a nap (we think we're going to have to get up about 3AM ... ).

The weather today could not be more different from yesterday. Yesterday was Fall and today is Summer - we're going to go out for our 2-3 mile walk while the day is still nice and warm.

Oh ... and my parents came by to give my a birthday present before we leave. They gave me $200 - - food booths here we come!

 

[cntkg1]

Most of the laundry is done ... my bathrooms are clean ... just have packing left to do and we'll probably end up doing that tonight before we go to bed for a nap (we think we're going to have to get up about 3AM ... ).

The weather today could not be more different from yesterday. Yesterday was Fall and today is Summer - we're going to go out for our 2-3 mile walk while the day is still nice and warm.

Oh ... and my parents came by to give my a birthday present before we leave. They gave me $200 - - food booths here we come!

Well then Happy Birthday next week B. What a great place to be on your birthday. And now I know we are related for sure. My mom slipped me an envelope yesterday and told us to have fun. In it was a check for $200.00!!

 

[cntkg1]

 

[oybolshoi]

Well then Happy Birthday next week B. What a great place to be on your birthday. And now I know we are related for sure. My mom slipped me an envelope yesterday and told us to have fun. In it was a check for $200.00!!

Thanks, MG! And what a nice gesture for your mom to make ... sounds like yesterday wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been.

I'm wearing my contacts for the first time in months ... talk about a change of perspective. For one thing I think the prescription is off a bit so I'm trying to adjust to that, but I forgot how much sharper everything is with contacts.

That's great, Jeff!

 

[cntkg1]

Jeff, Nice avatar.

 

[JLDSMD]

Jeff, Nice avatar.

Thanks.

I have a few different ones I was going to keep changing it up with, but I kinda like this one. I might just keep this one through the cruise.

 

[GOS]

Happy Birthday Brenda for next week.

Enjoy a glass of Rose Regale whilst in WDW.

 

[Dyerneeds]

Well then Happy Birthday next week B. What a great place to be on your birthday. And now I know we are related for sure. My mom slipped me an envelope yesterday and told us to have fun. In it was a check for $200.00!!

first round of smoothies is on nancy.

 

[Dyerneeds]

I agree! Can you sum it up in one sentence or less please?

Fine, I won't give my analysis any more than.

Oh waaaa! Should I call the Waaaaaambulance?