Oct 2022 Direct Sales

[nlenguyen]

Seeing that RR is selling more than GF, would you say that VDH will have the restrictions? I am not sure how much of an influence on these decisions Bob Iger will have

 

[hglenn]

I would say it's 100% likely VDH will have restrictions. Nothing indicates that they shouldn't. And, let's be honest, VDH will have self-imposed restrictions anyway because owners will use their points there almost exclusively anyway.

 

[nlenguyen]

Yeah, I was thinking about getting 50 points to 100 points. If I can't get my whole trip there it is okay or I can always combine with my direct points. I am willing to do a split stay at a nearby hotel. I think it is more manageable than WDW. If resale is the same as RR, I am not sure if 50 points would be enough in the future if that is the only place i can stay.

 

[hglenn]

Yeah, I was thinking about getting 50 points to 100 points. If I can't get my whole trip there it is okay or I can always combine with my direct points. I am willing to do a split stay at a nearby hotel. I think it is more manageable than WDW. If resale is the same as RR, I am not sure if 50 points would be enough in the future if that is the only place i can stay.

I would also expect point charts to be pretty high. I doubt 50 points will go far at VDH.

 

[pianomanzano]

I would also expect point charts to be pretty high. I doubt 50 points will go far at VDH.

I expect high point charts as well and if they're similar to VGF/RR point charts, I actually think 50-75 would be perfect for a family who only plans to go every other year or so.

 

[hglenn]

I expect high point charts as well and if they're similar to VGF/RR point charts, I actually think 50-75 would be perfect for a family who only plans to go every other year or so.

Sure, EOY... I must haver overlooked that point.

 

[Sandisw]

Seeing that RR is selling more than GF, would you say that VDH will have the restrictions? I am not sure how much of an influence on these decisions Bob Iger will have

Seeing he was the one in charge when all the changes between resale and direct, including resale restrictions on RIV, I don’t see him reversing them if he is part of those decisions.

 

[Nursemanit]

Seeing he was the one in charge when all the changes between resale and direct, including resale restrictions on RIV, I don’t see him reversing them if he is part of those decisions.

Sandisw is correct - any hope that Poly2 would not have restrictions, or that restrictions would go away is now a pipe dream. I was hoping the new administration would run the long-term numbers and goodwill calculations and reverse the call, but that hope is gone.​

 

[Roughians_satchel]

They won't have restrictions if they're part of the same association. The new tower at Disneyland hotel will most likely have restrictions, but I don't think it will do much in terms of a deterent since anyone buying in California will most be using them exclusively there.

 

[hglenn]

They won't have restrictions if they're part of the same association. The new tower at Disneyland hotel will most likely have restrictions, but I don't think it will do much in terms of a determent since anyone buying in California will most be using them exclusively there.

In yesterday's DVC Fan video with Paul and Amy, Paul said he thinks the new Poly tower will be part of the same association... It's still anyone's guess and I know several people on here feel strongly in the other direction. Either way, that's probably our next purchase and will be our first direct purchase. I just hope the opening incentives are really good!

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

In yesterday's DVC Fan video with Paul and Amy, Paul said he thinks the new Poly tower will be part of the same association... It's still anyone's guess and I know several people on here feel strongly in the other direction. Either way, that's probably our next purchase and will be our first direct purchase. I just hope the opening incentives are really good!

The law of “supply and demand” is in your favour. With so much supply, price will have to be set reasonably. When I refer to “price” i mean price paid which is inclusive of incentives.

If VGF doesn’t sell out before Poly2 goes on sale, then that is more supply in the system. However, their play could be to heavily discount VGF like they did with RIV. But this could pull buyers away from Poly2 exacerbating the problem. Therefore It’s in DVC’s best interest to get VGF sold out quickly.

Time will tell.

 

[Mikey15]

If VGF doesn’t sell out before Poly2 goes on sale, then that is more supply in the system. However, their play could be to heavily discount VGF like they did with RIV. But this could pull buyers away from Poly2 exacerbating the problem. Therefore It’s in DVC’s best interest to get VGF sold out quickly.

Time will tell.

Groundbreaking on Riv was what, start of 2018 and sales didn't start until Dec 2019? I think they've still got a lot of runway for VGF sales. Poly2 has a ways to go,

 

[bakerr6]

We are in the same boat. Our plan is to buy 200 points direct for poly2 as long as it makes sense. The points chart and new vs current association will be the deciding factor on whether we buy more or less.

I'd be willing to purchase up to 400 direct if the incentives make sense. We tend to take family with us and I'd like to stay in 2br instead of crunching into 1br or studios.

 

[Sandisw]

Groundbreaking on Riv was what, start of 2018 and sales didn't start until Dec 2019? I think they've still got a lot of runway for VGF sales. Poly2 has a ways to go,

RIV opened in Dec 2019. Sales begin sometime in March 2019.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Groundbreaking on Riv was what, start of 2018 and sales didn't start until Dec 2019? I think they've still got a lot of runway for VGF sales. Poly2 has a ways to go,

I'm not sure when groundbreaking was for RIV but sales started in April 2019; the resort opened December 2019. Have they started actual construction on Poly2 or just clearing/prepping the site? If they follow a similar build timeline to RIV (although this is smaller scale), they should start selling in spring 24 to open by December 2024. That really isn't a ton of time to sellout VGF.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I'm not sure when groundbreaking was for RIV but sales started in April 2019; the resort opened December 2019. Have they started actual construction on Poly2 or just clearing/prepping the site? If they follow a similar build timeline to RIV (although this is smaller scale), they should start selling in spring 24 to open by December 2024. That really isn't a ton of time to sellout VGF.

I do not know about that. Say they start to sell in April of 2024, including this month that is 17 months away, If they average 60K points a month that is 1 million points - that would mean VGF would be sold out. Just a reminder, there are only 1,779,822 new points and 708,561 have already been sold. The last couple of months have not been great, but a strategic incentive could get the uptick to average 60K. To delve even further, RIV has 6.7 million points with 3.3 million sold. If RIV averages 80K point a month, that is close to 1.4 million so that would mean 4.7 million sold with only 2 million left. Making RIV being on the back side toward being sold out when Poly2 is just starting to being actively sold (note, I do not even consider Aulani or the new California DVC as neither is really a competitor in WDW DVC sales). In other words, DVC appears to be well positioned now and the near future for points/resorts being for sale.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

FWIW November looks a lot like October. I’m not as good at this OC Database stuff as @wdrl but I’m getting 78K riviera points sold vs 38K VGF. Both just awful numbers but VGF is astounding.

 

[Sandisw]

FWIW November looks a lot like October. I’m not as good at this OC Database stuff as @wdrl but I’m getting 78K riviera points sold vs 38K VGF. Both just awful numbers but VGF is astounding.

That is not good if it holds true. No wonder they made it cheaper than RIV…and some of November would have included new sales with the new incentives.

Ouch…

 

[pianomanzano]

And yet they've increased prices on resorts across the board! Makes no sense to me, but they must be fine with the rate they're selling points at.

 

[Sandisw]

And yet they've increased prices on resorts across the board! Makes no sense to me, but they must be fine with the rate they're selling points at.

They may also be trying to get that base price up since VDH will be coming online and so will Poly tower in 2024.

But, I agree, they have to be content to some degree