Numbers for Brother Bear

[airlarry!]

Yes, it is time once again for our semi-semi-annual How Much Will the latest Disney (or Disney/Pixar) release bring in.

By popular demand, we are splitting the contest.

a) Guess the opening weekend in adjusted numbers--remember that Lilo got robbed by the media conspiracy against quality Disney animation


b) Guess the final numbers from here to Dec 31, 2003.

Prizes? Of course...

First prize: One autographed copy of LandBaron's epic fourteen volume set of "Walt's Standard In A Nutshell."

Second prize: Superbowl ticket, autographed by RaiderMatt (tearstain included, no extra charge).

Third prize: Framed copy of the first Billion dollar bill earned by Michael Ei$ner, autographed by Cou$in Mikey himself (there may be a prize fee for that one).

Fourth prize: One week's stay at Poop Century Resort.

Fifth Prize: Two week's stay at Poop Century Resort.

Sixth Prize: Autographed copy of a new screenplay by AV and Scoop, "Under the California Adventure Sun: The Cali Themepark Massacre"

Seventh Prize: Hand-blown Rose Colored Glasses designed by Peter Pirate himself



My guess? $15 mill opening...$95 M total

 

[emmagata]

I'll guess.........................................................

still thinking....................................................

12 mil opening 105 mil total

I'm shootin' for the 5th prize!!!

 

[Pooh67_68]

15.5 million opening
100 million total

 

[DC7800]

Let's see...

$21 million opening weekend

$106 million total.

 

[NorgeKathrine]

Okay, this is my first time ever guessing numbers like this... and I'm an eternal optimist. So I'll say...

$30 million opening weekend

$200 million overall


if I wind the rose colored glasses don't bother sending them... I already have my own pair

 

[Peter Pirate]

I really need those Landbaron paper weights, so I'll play...

I think BB looks very good but it is a Saturday opening (meaning just a two day first weekend take)...So I'll enter in at 14M first weekend and 145M overall!

 

[Golter]

The Saturday opening will be a tough call, but I'll go with 28.1 opening with a 175 million total.

 

[Planogirl]

I'll go with a 17 million opening and 115 million total.

 

[WDWHound]

22 Million Opening
130 Million total

 

[Mouse Ears]

I'm expecting--

$24 million opening
$142 million by end of year.

I'll settle for seventh prize. The rose-colored glasses would be great for my next trip. I hear the park looks immaculate if you're wearing them...

 

[DisneyKidds]

I bid a $1 opening weekend....................................................................ooops! This ain't the price is right . Actually, I'll take $16.5m for an opening, $90.5m total.

 

[wdwguide]

My wild and uneducated guess is 18 million for the opening weekend, and 110 million total.

I predict this film will be a mixture of Lion King and Pocahontas in theme, filled with "A 10 year old kid ought to think this is so kewl" character personalities and at least one sidekick whose lame jokes, burping and farting fail to cover up the weaknesses and plotholes in the story.

 

[jlambrig]

Hmmm, no competition until Elf on Nov 7 and no real direct competition until Looney Tunes on November 14.

Opening weekend is $19 million
End of year is $123 million

 

[daannzzz]

Opening weekend. $19 million
By "Due date" I will put what first came to mind. I am not trying to outbid ala the Price is Right! $201 miliion.

 

[RoutemanDan]

$12.5 mil opening w/end
$123 mil by the end of the year.

 

[DancingBear]

I have no guesses, but a question---what numbers would be considered to be a success for Brother Bear? I've seen a rough $100 million production cost figure.

 

[Peter Pirate]

Good question Bear...And this really is the crux of the thing, isn't it? Unfortunately, it's also subjective from our laymans POV.

I would guess that anything substantially above the initial costs for its domestic run would be considered a hit, say 125M on 100M cost? At this pont they would have worldwide totals and the DVD release as gravy. Plus the setup for the always lucrative direct to DVD sequel... What do you think?

BTW, where did your cost estimate come from? A movie source online?

 

[Golter]

IMO I would say anything below 100k would be a complete failure anything over 200K would be a roaring success, anything in between will be open for debate.

 

[airlarry!]

I should not have to respond to anyone who fails to hazard a guess

However, I think it depends: in which black leather chair are you sitting?

From industry analysts? Anything above production costs (and a free week's pass to Orlando) will get a favorable response, considering the overseas, DVD, plush, etc.

From Michael Ei$ners? Anything less than The Lion King numbers is a failure...although I bet he doesn't have a single movie to his credit at Paramount that did LK numbers (I know, someone will prove me wrong, that there is one, but who cares? The perception that he himself built is quiet movies that made a profit).

From $teve Job$ chair? Anything less than Monsters Inc numbers will be a failure in his eyes, more proof that they have Walt's ink in their pens than WDFA does.

From my eyes? $150+ up against That Elf Movie is a big hit for Disney.

 

[DancingBear]

Originally posted by Peter Pirate
BTW, where did your cost estimate come from? A movie source online?

BoxOfficeMojo doesn't show any estimate at this time. I did a Yahoo! search "Brother Bear Production Costs" and found an LA Times Article (on someone else's site) about the demise of 2D animation, which says in passing:

The film, which opens in Los Angeles and New York on Oct. 24 and premieres nationwide Nov. 1, is one of only two remaining major 2-D movies in the company's lineup. It will be followed by next year's Home on the Range. Each film will cost about $100 million.

http://www.concordmonitor.com/stories/market/bizstori2003/100303disney_digital_2003.shtml