I am booked Nov 13 to the 22 and was up at 6a on 180 +9 days out and lucked out and got everything I wanted pretty much when wanted. There are 3 of us with my DW and 5yo DD so I assume (I know dangerous) that 3 people are pretty much the same a 4 when it come to booking a table, don't think I have ever seen a table with just 3 seats. Some of our ADR's are Cry Pal our first full day for dinner, Ohana for Breakfast, BOG for lunch (didn't try for dinner), Back Yard BBQ, CRT, and Chef Mickeys. The first two I booked were the BBQ and CRT but on the last two full days. Believe it or not the one I could not get for when I wanted was Cape May, there was nothing showing at all for a Sunday night. Booked Rose and Crown instead and am happier with that. Was able to book Cape May another night and it will work out better. I later checked and Cape May did have plenty of availability that Sunday so there must have been a glitch when it first opened.
Now last year I booked a trip less then a month out for the end of Oct, think it was 27 days. Granted I didn't shoot that high, but got everything I wanted such as Cry Pal dinner, Tusker House lunch, Akershus diner, H&V breakfast, Chef Mickeys, and the HDDR. A couple were a little later then I wanted with a 5yo DD but we managed. Had to tweak a few as we got closer to get even better times so keep checking. I don't think H&V opened up for me until about a week out. I believe free dining was going on then too.
As others have said I think it's hard to say how busy it will be by how hard it is to get a reservation. IMO I think it easier to tell if the park will be lite, lots of ADR's available it will probably be lite. But are only so many tables available so there could be say 1000 ADR seats available per day. If 500 people go to the park and all book ADR's the are still 500 seats available. Now if 1000 people go to the park and all book ADR's the places are full and if 10000 or 100,000 people go to the park there are still only 1000 able to get seats. So once the ADR's reach capacity it's would be tough to tell how busy the park would be. Does that make sense? or did I do a bad job or explaining it??? I'm known to do that
