I have a co-worker who is a big SW fan, never been to Disney and has no interest in Disney. He's been following the SW:GE news and he said "Why would I spend all that money to see half a land?" He actual plans on waiting until the hotel opens, then I'm sure he'll be a one a done guest. Completely anecdotal, but for non-Disney SW fans, it might be playing a bigger role than you think.
I agree with the rest of your post, though, I think I a lot of people saw the predictions of crazy crowds and said nope. The reservation system also did a great job of throttling the initial response so now that it is full open to the public, a lot of people have already seen it and are probably avoiding the crowds. But I guarantee, this is not what Disney management thought they were going to get from this opening.
WDW should be interesting, based on hotel room availability, I think it'll be packed and I'm planning on staying away from DHS after the 28th.