Firebird060
Kilted in Disney
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2014
- Messages
- 910
So not to go to deep back to Friday, but I wanted to put down a couple thoughts about the positive and negatives of Disney using the Purposed Virgin Trainline option from MCO to Tampa with a Stop near WDW. I find the more I think about it, the more I see several things that could make it improbable but not necessarily impossible.
First point I want to make is that Magical Express Costs Disney alot of Money, and WDW is the only park that offers free transport from a Airport to the Parks for all guests. We are sadly in the Era where we see Disney cutting costs where they can to improve profit, this is why alot of people are afraid that Disney will eventually charge for Magical Express as alot of the other third party on site hotels charge for the transport from the hotels.
Second point I want to make is that Disney is laying the ground work for slowly pulling back some of the money they give to Mears who runs the Disney Magical Express and provides overflow busses on really busy Park Days, aka Christmas time and other holidays. Example the slow roll out of the Mini Vans, these although way more expensive then Mears taxis or the Uber option on site, is a good show of how Disney is trying to expand into more ways to maximize transport options to the profit of the Disney and taking away some of the Mears lines of revenue. If you look on site even in the past 6 years, you can see that there are alot less Mears taxis around, granted the reason for alot of that is because of the rise of Uber and Lyft and their cheaper pricing, but even with that since Disney is its own Municipality instead of making it harder for Uber or Lyft to exsist on property with laws, they actually worked specifically with Lyft and started rolling out there own Disney fleet of Mini Vans, thus helping to limit the number of Mears Taxis on site.
Third point I want to make is that Disney is making it more expensive for you to drive your own car and park on Disney property, for all non Florida AP\DVC Residents. Besides AP holders and DVC owners, no one parks for free on Disney property anywhere near the resorts or Parks, with the roll out of Resort Parking fees for anyone not on DVC or with Dinner Reservation and the increases in Parking Fees over the past few years for Theme Park, Disney is trying to make money off anyone staying on site who likes to have their own car and the ability to leave the bubble. They are in essence trying to regulate both the traffic onsite and discourage people who like to stay on site by making it cost prohibitive to drive on site. Since we know Disney does this type of stuff in a long term planning. I wouldnt be suprised if Disney started these back when they did as part of the preparation for the 50th. They have been working on the roadways as we know as part of those plans as well. This could be part of a two prong solution to both increase revenue and help offset the cost of building and maintaining those roads while trying to discourage the practice of renting or driving your own car down to Disney. Granted the rise of Uber drivers also might be part of the need to limit the wear and tear that the traffic of Disney is seeing.
Fourth point I want to make is that Disney is its own Municipality, as such they can make their own ordinances as they want, this also means they have a robust city planning department. Yes we can make the Distinction about Reedy Creek technically being independent of Disney but we all know that is mostly just a legal distinction and not the actual facts of the matter. This is important for the fact that if a high Speed rail link was made to Tampa as planned, even though the current plans drop off a short way off property, if a link was to be made from that mainline to Disney the amount of hoops for building would be astronomically less than what Virgin currently has to go through to make there building plans a reality. With Disney behind them at least politically they could more easily get approvals from the various other localities and state Agencies as Disney has its own massive political weight in Orlando and the State of Florida in general. ( I am not going into the debate on uneven Corporate Political Power, that would be a completely different topic and one not needed on the boards.)
Now after those Four points, we can then go into the Benefits and negatives of a train option to Disney and the possible changes or death of Magical Express it might cause.
Benefits of Train option for Disney, moves costs away from Mears, I could see this happening in two ways. One way is Disney and Virgin working out a deal for some sort of offshoot rail spur that drops off on actual Disney property, which would cost major money for building cost, but if it wasnt a free service, depending on the Cost it might be worth the extra construction cost. The other way which might be more likely is that instead of running the line to Disney property, it follows the line picture that writerguyfl posted and instead of Disney Magical express as we know it, there exists a similar service at the train station that drives the short way to Disney properties and the resorts respectively, be this a solely Disney owned and run option or in concurrence with Mears but at a much lower cost since the distance is so much shorter and their isnt the airport fees that the buses must pay to park at MCO, is something that Disney could work out. Also this allows Disney to encourage people in state to not drive up to WDW but use the train and be in the bubble, which also increases the use of the transfer service. For those that worry about baggage that I am sure the baggage option for not needing to pick up your baggage from the Airport wont change much as that is still handled by trucks and such on the backend but I could also see that being able to be worked into it from train operations as well, which would allow the bags to be transferred to a Disney Baggage car and allows people from Tampa and or Miami also to be able to take part in this option this would mean that the baggage wouldnt need to be picked up by trucks or delivered by trucks at the airport but instead a much closer option the train terminal, saving money on fuel and time and probably labor.
The negatives of this is, that yes it would save Disney money but no it would not be free, even with Disney saving money on it, I wouldnt expect this option to be free to use, instead you would pay for the ticket prob through Disney and the money passed onto Virgin with a possibility of Disney taking a small cut. Another would be the frequency of trains, I can see this becoming a issue, that yes although it could feasibly be quicker than Magical Express currently is to get from MCO to WDW, if the trains only leave every 30 minutes to 1hr than it could potentially take longer then what we currently have. To combat that, there would need to more trains on the track which means more money, or a express line which are not anywhere near the plans right now. I see both of these things quite unlikely which means more than likely unless you arrive with perfect timing, there is a good chance it would take you longer to get to WDW from MCO then it currently does, not to mention the wait to transfer to a bus. That begs us to question does Disney care that it might take longer if it saves them money, allows them more time to get your room ready and actually increases there profit? Its a good question, I think it would depend on how much longer it would take and the potential money difference Disney would see with someone not being on property that much quicker and spending money that much sooner.
Another negative is the guest reaction, alot of people wouldnt like this, they will complain, Disney might try and spin this type of change as more Environmental friendly as a way to counter act a PR backlash, but it will only go so far, especially for those guest that have more conservative views and are less friendly to Disney climate pollution reduction policies.
Another negative, is how would bad weather which Florida is prone for, effect the whole system. A huricane on either coast could easily effect the line, even though WDW is in Orlando which doesnt experience the weather the same way. A stopage or even a slow down of trains at either point of the line could cause a stoppage that would effect guests taking the train from MCO. Although Disney wouldnt be liable for it, they do take a risk of angry guests and possible effects of delayed revenue due to these events. Sure they could switch to buses like the currently have during these situations, but Disney by that time would not have such a robust terminal at MCO and it would still lead to delays and angry guests. The question is more so of risk acceptance. Disney at least right now has more control over the Mears operations due to the robust contract they have and the long operation relationship, Mears also allows Disney a more nimble response to guest needs then a rail line would.
A third option would be a modified option to keep both Disneys Magical express, which honestly I would still see as a charge, at a slower time schedule, as well as promote a rail option. The problem with this other option is that although you would see less buses needed at MCO, Disney would still be paying alot to Mears for this operation. They would still need busses to transport from rail terminal and as such would prob not be saving as much money in the long term. Also it would be hard for Disney to claim the environmental high card in PR releases. I see this as the most unlikely option unless it was part of a phase out option with Disney eventually switching to a rail option.
Another thought is that if Disney does do away with a Magical Express option, I could see universal investing it taking that spot over at MCO, with them announcing a third gate and the likely hood of them putting up more resorts near it, I could see Universal wanting a more Branded option even if it also wont be free, I could see a lucrative contract for Mears to help supplement the loss of Magical Express. Right now to get from MCO to universal you can already book a shuttle with Mears, but a similar option as Magical Express for Universal with the increases in resorts they are having and now the third gate, might not be a bad option in their future.
So after saying all of that, what do I really think. Well honestly I would love a rail option and I am sure Disney would love to cut the cost of Magical Express, I see it unlikely in the near future or even next 10 years of this happening, due to the length of time it would take to build the infrastructure for such a project, but knowing Disney I am sure someone is looking into these options as a possible long term solution, as we all know Disney has plans many years out. Even if such thing was to come to pass Disney would still more than likely rely on Mears to facilitate the transfers from the Cruise Ships to WDW as having to maintain that as part there fleet would mean they would need to have a more robust operation and costs at the port, which I dont see as something Disney would want to undertake. Disneys relationship with Mears is a long one, and I see the need for profit and reduction of vehicle traffic as something Disney is actively following, but where it takes us in the future, really depends on the higher ups and how the economy fares in the future.
First point I want to make is that Magical Express Costs Disney alot of Money, and WDW is the only park that offers free transport from a Airport to the Parks for all guests. We are sadly in the Era where we see Disney cutting costs where they can to improve profit, this is why alot of people are afraid that Disney will eventually charge for Magical Express as alot of the other third party on site hotels charge for the transport from the hotels.
Second point I want to make is that Disney is laying the ground work for slowly pulling back some of the money they give to Mears who runs the Disney Magical Express and provides overflow busses on really busy Park Days, aka Christmas time and other holidays. Example the slow roll out of the Mini Vans, these although way more expensive then Mears taxis or the Uber option on site, is a good show of how Disney is trying to expand into more ways to maximize transport options to the profit of the Disney and taking away some of the Mears lines of revenue. If you look on site even in the past 6 years, you can see that there are alot less Mears taxis around, granted the reason for alot of that is because of the rise of Uber and Lyft and their cheaper pricing, but even with that since Disney is its own Municipality instead of making it harder for Uber or Lyft to exsist on property with laws, they actually worked specifically with Lyft and started rolling out there own Disney fleet of Mini Vans, thus helping to limit the number of Mears Taxis on site.
Third point I want to make is that Disney is making it more expensive for you to drive your own car and park on Disney property, for all non Florida AP\DVC Residents. Besides AP holders and DVC owners, no one parks for free on Disney property anywhere near the resorts or Parks, with the roll out of Resort Parking fees for anyone not on DVC or with Dinner Reservation and the increases in Parking Fees over the past few years for Theme Park, Disney is trying to make money off anyone staying on site who likes to have their own car and the ability to leave the bubble. They are in essence trying to regulate both the traffic onsite and discourage people who like to stay on site by making it cost prohibitive to drive on site. Since we know Disney does this type of stuff in a long term planning. I wouldnt be suprised if Disney started these back when they did as part of the preparation for the 50th. They have been working on the roadways as we know as part of those plans as well. This could be part of a two prong solution to both increase revenue and help offset the cost of building and maintaining those roads while trying to discourage the practice of renting or driving your own car down to Disney. Granted the rise of Uber drivers also might be part of the need to limit the wear and tear that the traffic of Disney is seeing.
Fourth point I want to make is that Disney is its own Municipality, as such they can make their own ordinances as they want, this also means they have a robust city planning department. Yes we can make the Distinction about Reedy Creek technically being independent of Disney but we all know that is mostly just a legal distinction and not the actual facts of the matter. This is important for the fact that if a high Speed rail link was made to Tampa as planned, even though the current plans drop off a short way off property, if a link was to be made from that mainline to Disney the amount of hoops for building would be astronomically less than what Virgin currently has to go through to make there building plans a reality. With Disney behind them at least politically they could more easily get approvals from the various other localities and state Agencies as Disney has its own massive political weight in Orlando and the State of Florida in general. ( I am not going into the debate on uneven Corporate Political Power, that would be a completely different topic and one not needed on the boards.)
Now after those Four points, we can then go into the Benefits and negatives of a train option to Disney and the possible changes or death of Magical Express it might cause.
Benefits of Train option for Disney, moves costs away from Mears, I could see this happening in two ways. One way is Disney and Virgin working out a deal for some sort of offshoot rail spur that drops off on actual Disney property, which would cost major money for building cost, but if it wasnt a free service, depending on the Cost it might be worth the extra construction cost. The other way which might be more likely is that instead of running the line to Disney property, it follows the line picture that writerguyfl posted and instead of Disney Magical express as we know it, there exists a similar service at the train station that drives the short way to Disney properties and the resorts respectively, be this a solely Disney owned and run option or in concurrence with Mears but at a much lower cost since the distance is so much shorter and their isnt the airport fees that the buses must pay to park at MCO, is something that Disney could work out. Also this allows Disney to encourage people in state to not drive up to WDW but use the train and be in the bubble, which also increases the use of the transfer service. For those that worry about baggage that I am sure the baggage option for not needing to pick up your baggage from the Airport wont change much as that is still handled by trucks and such on the backend but I could also see that being able to be worked into it from train operations as well, which would allow the bags to be transferred to a Disney Baggage car and allows people from Tampa and or Miami also to be able to take part in this option this would mean that the baggage wouldnt need to be picked up by trucks or delivered by trucks at the airport but instead a much closer option the train terminal, saving money on fuel and time and probably labor.
The negatives of this is, that yes it would save Disney money but no it would not be free, even with Disney saving money on it, I wouldnt expect this option to be free to use, instead you would pay for the ticket prob through Disney and the money passed onto Virgin with a possibility of Disney taking a small cut. Another would be the frequency of trains, I can see this becoming a issue, that yes although it could feasibly be quicker than Magical Express currently is to get from MCO to WDW, if the trains only leave every 30 minutes to 1hr than it could potentially take longer then what we currently have. To combat that, there would need to more trains on the track which means more money, or a express line which are not anywhere near the plans right now. I see both of these things quite unlikely which means more than likely unless you arrive with perfect timing, there is a good chance it would take you longer to get to WDW from MCO then it currently does, not to mention the wait to transfer to a bus. That begs us to question does Disney care that it might take longer if it saves them money, allows them more time to get your room ready and actually increases there profit? Its a good question, I think it would depend on how much longer it would take and the potential money difference Disney would see with someone not being on property that much quicker and spending money that much sooner.
Another negative is the guest reaction, alot of people wouldnt like this, they will complain, Disney might try and spin this type of change as more Environmental friendly as a way to counter act a PR backlash, but it will only go so far, especially for those guest that have more conservative views and are less friendly to Disney climate pollution reduction policies.
Another negative, is how would bad weather which Florida is prone for, effect the whole system. A huricane on either coast could easily effect the line, even though WDW is in Orlando which doesnt experience the weather the same way. A stopage or even a slow down of trains at either point of the line could cause a stoppage that would effect guests taking the train from MCO. Although Disney wouldnt be liable for it, they do take a risk of angry guests and possible effects of delayed revenue due to these events. Sure they could switch to buses like the currently have during these situations, but Disney by that time would not have such a robust terminal at MCO and it would still lead to delays and angry guests. The question is more so of risk acceptance. Disney at least right now has more control over the Mears operations due to the robust contract they have and the long operation relationship, Mears also allows Disney a more nimble response to guest needs then a rail line would.
A third option would be a modified option to keep both Disneys Magical express, which honestly I would still see as a charge, at a slower time schedule, as well as promote a rail option. The problem with this other option is that although you would see less buses needed at MCO, Disney would still be paying alot to Mears for this operation. They would still need busses to transport from rail terminal and as such would prob not be saving as much money in the long term. Also it would be hard for Disney to claim the environmental high card in PR releases. I see this as the most unlikely option unless it was part of a phase out option with Disney eventually switching to a rail option.
Another thought is that if Disney does do away with a Magical Express option, I could see universal investing it taking that spot over at MCO, with them announcing a third gate and the likely hood of them putting up more resorts near it, I could see Universal wanting a more Branded option even if it also wont be free, I could see a lucrative contract for Mears to help supplement the loss of Magical Express. Right now to get from MCO to universal you can already book a shuttle with Mears, but a similar option as Magical Express for Universal with the increases in resorts they are having and now the third gate, might not be a bad option in their future.
So after saying all of that, what do I really think. Well honestly I would love a rail option and I am sure Disney would love to cut the cost of Magical Express, I see it unlikely in the near future or even next 10 years of this happening, due to the length of time it would take to build the infrastructure for such a project, but knowing Disney I am sure someone is looking into these options as a possible long term solution, as we all know Disney has plans many years out. Even if such thing was to come to pass Disney would still more than likely rely on Mears to facilitate the transfers from the Cruise Ships to WDW as having to maintain that as part there fleet would mean they would need to have a more robust operation and costs at the port, which I dont see as something Disney would want to undertake. Disneys relationship with Mears is a long one, and I see the need for profit and reduction of vehicle traffic as something Disney is actively following, but where it takes us in the future, really depends on the higher ups and how the economy fares in the future.
