New Winter 23-24 incentives are live

[CastAStone]

From the site, no publicly advertised offer on VGF:

 

[CastAStone]

Lower than I expected I will admit, and I’m surprised there’s no “buy now” bonus offer; they usually do those in the winter promos. Maybe they’re saving it for Black Friday.

 

[Ruttangel]

VGF now $230pp with no incentives
AUL/RIV still $217pp but $200 at 150pts and if you qualify for welcome home $1k brings it to $193
Same welcome home deal at VDH still at $213

Small sales at BLT/CCV
https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/m/Riviera_Member_Welcome.pdf
https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/m/Aulani_Member_Welcome.pdf
https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/nm/BayLakeTower_Member_DeveloperCredit_CashOnly.pdf https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/nm/CopperCreek_Member_DeveloperCredit_CashOnly.pdf

 

[Sandisw]

They certainly don’t appear to be trying to boost sales given these incentives.

 

[intamin]

Wow, pretty underwhelming. Guess I'm going to stick with my current deal :X orrr the other option is to wait until near the next round ends in January.

 

[RuntheMouse]

I was waiting to see if these were good enough to get me to add on for a blue card and Sorcerer Pass access. Nope, just finished renewing my Incredipass. They’re underwhelming for sure.

 

[Ruttangel]

Here is a bit more detail on new and current offers
https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...fall-2023-disney-vacation-club-direct-pricing

 

[intamin]

I guess the next question is, do we expect them to raise the prices of RIV to 230 any time soon to be on par with VDH? They obviously don't care to try and sell the resort out quickly.

 

[MyDogTink]

Do the incentives for RIV change anyone’s view on Poly2 being same or new association?

Happy Halloween! And @Sandisw - congratulations on your DD’s engagement!

 

[WDWFERN]

Agree with very underwhelming incentives. Wondering now if they are content with slow sales for a few months, or getting ready for a Black Friday flash sale that people feel more compelled to jump on because of a couple rounds of modest incentives… guess we will see, but certainly the current incentives made it easy for me to decide now is not the time we will be doing a direct add on!

 

[Sandisw]

Here is a bit more detail on new and current offers
https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...fall-2023-disney-vacation-club-direct-pricing

To the point of what was posted…the fact that they didn’t bring RIV down to the level of VGF this summer certainly says to me that program was definitely to get VGF to sold out status.

It will be interesting to see Oct sales data since it will contain sales for when VGF was raised to $230 and very few that bought with the summer incentive but delayed closing.

 

[intamin]

To the point of what was posted…the fact that they didn’t bring RIV down to the level of VGF this summer certainly says to me that program was definitely to get VGF to sold out status.

It will be interesting to see Oct sales data since it will contain sales for when VGF was raised to $230 and very few that bought with the summer incentive but delayed closing.

They clearly aren't trying to sell off VDH or RIV fast. There's strong cash bookings at both so why bother? VGF on the other hand they were trying to upsell people from value rooms to these desperately so that makes sense.

 

[pkrieger2287]

I think what surprises me the most is that here we are in Q1 - FY2024... Disney Vacation Club was already called out last quarter for lower-than-anticipated sales and now they are stuck with these three properties and no real eyecatching incentives. They are going to have to expect a lot from Riviera to drive this division of the company until we see Poly or Fort Wilderness sales begin, which I have to assume won't be until spring of 2024.

So did they push too hard too quickly with VGF incentives? Were they short-sighted in planning for the future and building new properties more quickly? I'll be very interested to come back to this discussion in a month after we see November sales numbers.

 

[intamin]

So did they push too hard too quickly with VGF incentives? Were they short-sighted in planning for the future and building new properties more quickly? I'll be very interested to come back to this discussion in a month after we see November sales numbers.

I'm not sure if they anticipated the response they got from selling VGF that low. We hadn't seen direct DVC sales like that in years. It's even crazier that they're ROFRing VGF in the 140s when a month ago they were selling it for 160s so I'm not sure what their game plan was here. It may have also indirectly affected their sales at other properties because now people are expecting the same to occur for RIV and potentially even VDH and when we see these new incentives come out it's all been very underwhelming compared to the summer incentives.

 

[Sandisw]

I think what surprises me the most is that here we are in Q1 - FY2024... Disney Vacation Club was already called out last quarter for lower-than-anticipated sales and now they are stuck with these three properties and no real eyecatching incentives. They are going to have to expect a lot from Riviera to drive this division of the company until we see Poly or Fort Wilderness sales begin, which I have to assume won't be until spring of 2024.

So did they push too hard too quickly with VGF incentives? Were they short-sighted in planning for the future and building new properties more quickly? I'll be very interested to come back to this discussion in a month after we see November sales numbers.

Well if we see an increase in RIV sales..which we will now thst VGF is gone..and okay VDH sales, they will get over that 100k mark.

And, that is much better than what had been happening so could be enough to calm the concerns brought out.

The last few months of sales were very strong as well which may also have calmed down the concern.

I think we may see the sales for the other two start sooner than late spring though. My guess is FW in March and Poly Tower in May..so not too far off

 

[CastAStone]

I think what surprises me the most is that here we are in Q1 - FY2024... Disney Vacation Club was already called out last quarter for lower-than-anticipated sales and now they are stuck with these three properties and no real eyecatching incentives. They are going to have to expect a lot from Riviera to drive this division of the company until we see Poly or Fort Wilderness sales begin, which I have to assume won't be until spring of 2024.

So did they push too hard too quickly with VGF incentives? Were they short-sighted in planning for the future and building new properties more quickly? I'll be very interested to come back to this discussion in a month after we see November sales numbers.

It’s just so odd that they seem to be trying to hit a specific sales rate instead of selling as much as possible.

The margins on DVC are enormous. They should try to maximize sales always, even if it means a meaningful discount, because they can just keep making more. Yes they’ll eventually run out of places but that is someone who doesn’t work there today’s problem in 20 or 30 years.

 

[BrianLo]

I think what surprises me the most is that here we are in Q1 - FY2024... Disney Vacation Club was already called out last quarter for lower-than-anticipated sales and now they are stuck with these three properties and no real eyecatching incentives. They are going to have to expect a lot from Riviera to drive this division of the company until we see Poly or Fort Wilderness sales begin, which I have to assume won't be until spring of 2024.

So did they push too hard too quickly with VGF incentives? Were they short-sighted in planning for the future and building new properties more quickly? I'll be very interested to come back to this discussion in a month after we see November sales numbers.

DVC certainly seems to be a lever that in part is turned up to gussy quarterly results.

To me this says in part there is no pressure to crank this lever this quarter, maybe partially the parks aren’t as weak as they were this summer or the D+ price hike(s) is enough to bolster this quarter on its own.

 

[Paul Stupin]

With VGF’s direct price now “frozen in carbonite“ at $230, I’m wondering if we’ll finally start to see the VGF resale price go up.

 

[CastAStone]

With VGF’s direct price now “frozen in carbonite“ at $230, I’m wondering if we’ll finally start to see the VGF resale price go up.

See I’m sitting here wondering if we’ll see the direct price at $295 within a month. Why do you say carbonite?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I have to say I’m surprised that there aren’t more ambitious incentives on RIV and/or AUL, but I have a purely speculative theory—they are keeping seasonal prices high to really drive FOMO with some combination of (a) very limited Black Friday flash sale, (b) a short-term surprise holiday promotion, or (c) slightly better pre-sale incentives for the cabins or Poly Tower.

Essentially, it would be a choice to sacrifice some sales now to be able to make more targeted short term “buy now or lose out” promotions even more tempting as necessary later.

I also think maybe they took a closer look at the delayed close VGF numbers and realize they can coast on those delayed close sales to boost numbers for the next couple months? Surely I’m not the only experienced DVC buyer who waited until September and then got Disney to extend payments as long as possible.