New - When will DCL Sailings resume - Poll

When will DCL Sailings resume?

  • 4th Quarter 2020

    Votes: 72 27.4%
  • 1st Quarter 2021

    Votes: 77 29.3%
  • 2nd Quarter 2021

    Votes: 64 24.3%
  • 2nd Half of year 2021

    Votes: 38 14.4%
  • 2022

    Votes: 10 3.8%
  • DCL may not return

    Votes: 2 0.8%

  • Total voters
    263

T & R

More cowbell !!!
Joined
May 8, 2017
I think if FL can get back on track it'll be Q4 2020. A lot of local/county governments are enacting mask requirements and I'm hoping that slows the spread.
If the spread is slowed, wouldn't that make it last longer and put it past Q4 2020? Herd immunity begins at 60% total infected. A new study released this morning by Swedish Public Health Authority puts the herd immunity as low as 20% from the studies they did on infection rate on the Diamond Princess and infection rates in the City of Stockholm. Slowing the spread is prolonging the spread. Prolonging the spread means prolonging the resumption of cruising. The infection rate would need to increases significantly for the next few months in order to get exposure immunity in place and then cruising to resume by Q4 2020. With an infection rate of only a few thousand a day in state like Florida that has millions of people, this rate will take us long past Q4 2020. Simple math.
 

DietCokeMommy

Mouseketeer
Joined
Apr 19, 2017
If the spread is slowed, wouldn't that make it last longer and put it past Q4 2020? Herd immunity begins at 60% total infected. A new study released this morning by Swedish Public Health Authority puts the herd immunity as low as 20% from the studies they did on infection rate on the Diamond Princess and infection rates in the City of Stockholm. Slowing the spread is prolonging the spread. Prolonging the spread means prolonging the resumption of cruising. The infection rate would need to increases significantly for the next few months in order to get exposure immunity in place and then cruising to resume by Q4 2020. With an infection rate of only a few thousand a day in state like Florida that has millions of people, this rate will take us long past Q4 2020. Simple math.
From what I've read herd immunity is when 70-90% of the population has immunity. That means millions of people die. Millions. The goal should be to eradicate this like MERS and SARS. By slowing the spread I mean slowing infections so that it dies out.
 

CmdrThor

Mouseketeer
Joined
Sep 4, 2018
I read where Holland America has cancelled all cruises in 2020. I fully expect that to be the case for most lines. I read DCL's new policy as a replacement for the 125% rebooking credit even though it doesn't say so. I could be wrong. I have a cruise booked for May 2021 and seriously question my ability/comfort level to take that cruise. Payment is due in early January which is when I'll need to make my decision.
If DCL isn't planning on continuing to offer the 125% FCC, we will simply take a refund for our upcoming cruise and possibly never book a replacement. We have the first cruise on the Fantasy still scheduled, but it isn't bookable so we know it is 99.9% getting cancelled. This will also be our first cruise. I had seen some decent options in September 2021 that would work for us, but when all of the cruises before ours got cancelled but ours did not, the cabins we wanted all filled up. If it becomes that hard for us to spend our money, we will just do it elsewhere. It will be a bit of a pain because we used Disney gift cards to book concierge rooms for 6 guests, but between DVC dues, WDW Annual Passes, and dining at WDW we should be able to spend it all before we would ever be able to cruise again.
 

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  • DCLDVC1

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 1, 2015
    I think if FL can get back on track it'll be Q4 2020. A lot of local/county governments are enacting mask requirements and I'm hoping that slows the spread. If NY can get a handle on it even with their population density, FL can too if people stop being morons.
    Good luck! That's the biggest problem and I don't see it getting fixed any time soon.
     

    FightingIrishman

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Nov 8, 2017
    Hopefully a combination of herd immunity, release of semi effective vaccines in very late 2020, and continued social distancing and mask wearing will substantially decrease the number of new COVID19 infections sometime in the first quarter 2021. When the number of new COVID19 infections is less than the new number of seasonal flu infections, we will be able to cruise again.
     

    auntlynne

    Aunt Lynne
    Joined
    Sep 2, 2008
    This is their cancellations for 2020 and early 2021

    With travel restrictions continuing for the near future due to global health concerns, Holland America Line has decided to extend its pause of global cruise operations and cancel all 2020 Alaska, Europe, Canada/New England cruises and departures from the port of Vancouver, British Columbia, as well as select Hawaii itineraries for early 2021.
    They have cruises to the Caribbean from Ft Lauderdale. Those are still available for booking. Whether they will actually sail is still a matter to be seen.
     

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  • FightingIrishman

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Nov 8, 2017
    How would slowing the spread make the virus go away?
    SARS-1 and MERS infections were slowed to a point where they eventually vanished. These two viruses were only transmissible after symptoms developed. COVID19 (SARS-2) is spread even without patient symptoms, which makes it nearly impossible to stop by just putting symptomatic patients in quarantine, thus the need for widespread social distancing and masks.
     

    T & R

    More cowbell !!!
    Joined
    May 8, 2017
    SARS-1 and MERS infections were slowed to a point where they eventually vanished.
    Yes, SARS took 2+ yrs to vanish just like 1918 virus did as well, they all take a few years to vanish with or without slowing. MERS never vanished and a few hundred people get that per year, every year since 2013. There is no proof slowing the spread will make Covid-19 vanish. It may vanish someday but they all seem to do that eventually anyway and the likely scenario bases on precedent is years not months. As far as information on heard immunity and other Covid info, I'm going by what Mayo Clinic, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and various other medical journals and institutions. I'm not just going by what I heard. I would love to see a Q4 resumption of cruising. I actually have a PIF cruise in Q4 2020 but am skeptical that can happen when we are only getting a few thousand positive Covid cases per day. As of now there is no vaccine, so mathematically at that positive test rate it will take years to hit heard immunity and for the virus to vanish like the 1918 pandemic did. The above is pertaining to opinion on resumption of cruises in Q4 2020, if anyone would like to discuss just Covid with me, could we please move it to private message using this board or to the community thread on this board.
     

    ofcabbagesandkings

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 16, 2014
    New DCL offers are out - only Bahamian cruises resuming in October-November. Guessing that means DCL anticipates Bermuda being a no-go for the Magic.
     
  • Husker Mike

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Mar 25, 2019
    How would slowing the spread make the virus go away?
    Slowing it to nearly 0 means that it's no longer spreading... and masks allowed Hong Kong to pretty much eliminate the virus...


    Alternatively, New Zealand went aggressive with their lockdown, and now it's eradicated there...


    Problem is that we went the exact opposite direction, and showing zero tolerance for more lockdowns or even mask usage, so it's a moot point here.
     

    auntlynne

    Aunt Lynne
    Joined
    Sep 2, 2008
    New DCL offers are out - only Bahamian cruises resuming in October-November. Guessing that means DCL anticipates Bermuda being a no-go for the Magic.
    DCL website is still showing October Bermuda cruises.

    But when I selected any date and entered # of pax, I got this message:

    Staterooms Are Not Available or Staterooms for Your Party Size Are Not Available
    Sorry! There are no available staterooms for this cruise or there are no staterooms available that can accommodate your party size.
     

    bcwife76

    DisneyMomma
    Joined
    Dec 10, 2014
    DCL website is still showing October Bermuda cruises.

    But when I selected any date and entered # of pax, I got this message:

    Staterooms Are Not Available or Staterooms for Your Party Size Are Not Available
    Sorry! There are no available staterooms for this cruise or there are no staterooms available that can accommodate your party size.
    And the same message popped up when I selected my Nov 7 sail date on the Magic.

    Wahhh :(
    I think it's a website glitch, I just tried looking up a June 2021 cruise and got the same message.
     

    Snowwhyt

    I've felt the Magic each time I visit!
    Joined
    Nov 2, 2008
    Is that the message we normally get when your ship is getting full? Maybe they cut the numbers down to reflect the new safe social distancing policy they plan to use on future cruises.
     

    bcwife76

    DisneyMomma
    Joined
    Dec 10, 2014
    DCL website is still showing October Bermuda cruises.

    But when I selected any date and entered # of pax, I got this message:

    Staterooms Are Not Available or Staterooms for Your Party Size Are Not Available
    Sorry! There are no available staterooms for this cruise or there are no staterooms available that can accommodate your party size.
    It was a website glitch, you can search the rooms now.
     

    Jacq7414

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Apr 28, 2019
    That may be a good thing! The cabin would be immaculate with no prior occupants after the post-virus scrubbing!:)
    That is true. If they don’t decide what they plan on doing by our PIF (December) I’m cancelling though. Our cruise is close to 7k and it’s too much money to have tied up with the amount of unknowns. I booked a backup stay at WDW just in case.
     




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