New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet

[workinggal]

MIAMI (KRT) -- Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get used to it. This is the new normal.

Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below average activity. They also say the law of averages has caught up with Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the state into a hurricane magnet.

''People are suddenly alert, suddenly paying attention,'' said Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division on Virginia Key. ''They can see now that we are in an active era. People should realize that it is very unlikely that Frances is the last storm the U.S. will see this year.''

Which brings us to Hurricane Ivan. Though subject to considerable error, long-range forecasts are consistently suggesting that Ivan will strike Jamaica on Friday and Cuba on Sunday as a vicious Category 4 hurricane. The southern half of Florida remains i* the five-day cone of probability.

When asked if Florida can endure another hurricane, Gov. Jeb Bush pointed Tuesday to a button he wore on his shirt. It said: ''I survived damn near everything.''

''We will survive whatever comes at us,'' he said. ''We're an incredibly resilient state. I'm not being defiant; I'm only suggesting we can meet this challenge.''

If Ivan hits the state, it will be the first time since 1964 that three hurricanes smacked Florida in the same year. And September and October tend to be among the most active months of the six-month hurricane season that ends Nov. 30.

''The season is still young,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ''It certainly seems from my perspective that we're in the active period that has been predicted. The only surprise is that Florida hasn't been hit more often in the last few years.''

A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes -- with winds higher than 110 mph -- attacked Florida. ''And that doesn't include the other less powerful hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That 10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970.

 

[JESW]

Yikes! When does hurricane season normally end?

Jill

 

[Muffin]

Unfortunately, hurricane season doesn't end until December 1st.

 

[Kimberle]