NEW VGF Building

[Paul Stupin]

That is what the history says - when it goes on sale it will be priced similar or the same to whatever else is in current sales. VGC was no different.

Considering how caught by surprise we all were, I’m not sure “that is what the history says” is a particularly effective argument. I think the one certainty we’re facing is that there will be more surprises to come. But rather than VGF being priced down to current Riviera levels, I think the Riviera could very well be re-priced at VGF’s higher level. The $201 price seems like wishful thinking to me. But maybe I’m wrong. What does the history say about that?

 

[Bjaiken77]

I’m saying that the new higher prices could very well apply to the Riviera also. In addition, your logic dictates that the new Disneyland Tower will be priced at Riviera levels as well. Do you really think that will be the case? Disneyland Tower for $201?

I’m curious about Disneyland Tower, too. I think DLT and VGF2 might set the bar for future expectations for me. If they are too high, I’m just going to focus on resale and existing resorts. We enjoy spending time in the parks, and there are too many good resorts with reasonable point charts and resale prices (or even direct like SSR or OKW).

 

[DonMacGregor]

If you put the sink here couldn’t you hook the trap up to the existing drain pipe?
View attachment 577517

Yes, that would absolutely work, it’s the only place you could do it. Of course now you’re cheating into the sleeping area, and for a true studio don’t you need to sleep at least 5?

Ideally, it would go where the closet is on the other side of the entry, and you could simply install a couple of wardrobes, maybe something incorporating a Murphy bed, etc. Unfortunately, there’s no water or waste in the other wall. That location would be consistent with other properties and where I assumed they’d want to put it (somewhere taking up less real estate).

Or you could rotate it 90° from where you have it and put it along the common wall, maybe with some other built ins, but you’d have to flip the headboards to the opposite wall and that blocks good egress., so that’s out.

The trap can run up to 6’ before it enters the wall (actually to the vent in the wall), so there’s some leeway.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Considering how caught by surprise we all were, I’m not sure “that is what the history says” is a particularly effective argument. I think the one certainty we’re facing is that there will be more surprises to come. But rather than VGF being priced down to current Riviera levels, I think the Riviera could very well be re-priced at VGF’s higher level. The $201 price seems like wishful thinking to me. But maybe I’m wrong. What does the history say about that?

History says that you will be wrong.

I believe a decent number thought Riviera would open for $200 a pt.

None of us will know until it is announced however for over a decade it's been the same speculation - this is the one that breaks the trend. They are pushing pricing boundaries more than ever in other divisions that's for sure. I really have no idea but I've seen the same sort of speculation with other resorts, and VGF the first time, and it didn't happen that way. DVD probably likes this speculation then it looks like a bargain when they don't go that high.

 

[OKW Lover]

Per Disney's public statement, they have 3-6 months ("Starting next spring" and "Projected to open in summer 2022").

Based on Disney's recent work, 3-6 months would seem to be enough time to completely renovate 200 rooms, if they choose to do so.

Agree with this.

But, Could they open in phases? Have some units complete by Summer 2022?

 

[Nabas]

Agree with this.

But, Could they open in phases? Have some units complete by Summer 2022?

Possibly but construction inside a single building tends to be pretty noisy - sound carries.

Really, I think Disney has already determined that they'll be able to get all the work done, without having to do it piecemeal.

 

[RoseGold]

DVD probably likes this speculation then it looks like a bargain when they don't go that high.

They’re not into selling bargains. They’re into selling memories for low monthly payments.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

They’re not into selling bargains. They’re into selling memories for low monthly payments.

Selling a perception of a bargain.

 

[MomOTwins]

History says that you will be wrong.

I believe a decent number thought Riviera would open for $200 a pt.

None of us will know until it is announced however for over a decade it's been the same speculation - this is the one that breaks the trend. They are pushing pricing boundaries more than ever in other divisions that's for sure. I really have no idea but I've seen the same sort of speculation with other resorts, and VGF the first time, and it didn't happen that way. DVD probably likes this speculation then it looks like a bargain when they don't go that high.

Of course they could just raise the Riviera price to $225 and have VGF priced to match.

 

[sethschroeder]

Of course they could just raise the Riviera price to $225 and have VGF priced to match.

I would expect RIV to be around $210-$215 on the conservative side by then. I could see them doing that.

 

[Paul Stupin]

History says that you will be wrong.

I believe a decent number thought Riviera would open for $200 a pt.

None of us will know until it is announced however for over a decade it's been the same speculation - this is the one that breaks the trend. They are pushing pricing boundaries more than ever in other divisions that's for sure. I really have no idea but I've seen the same sort of speculation with other resorts, and VGF the first time, and it didn't happen that way. DVD probably likes this speculation then it looks like a bargain when they don't go that high.

Time will tell! In the meantime, at least we’ll have fun talking about it.

 

[TCRAIG]

I know what I’m guessing is true cause my Magic 8 Ball says so....(haha).

 

[RoseGold]

You know what, let’s dream big. Convert one of the suites into a lounge, throw out a cheese plate and some sodas and call it club level! Create a new category and print 2M points of club level.

 

[BruinEd03]

I don’t think resale prices will go down. Even at a 225 direct point cost the savings at current prices will be substantial enough.

The current resale market is $185/pt to $210/pt (generally) at dvcresalemarket.com. That's pricing in a $255/pt direct price resulting in a 28% to $18% discount. If they drop the $255/pt direct price to $225, you don't think that will affect the resale market pricing? It'll drop discounts to a range between a 18% to 7% discount. That $210/pt will not be much of a bargain at a 7% discount.

 

[macman123]

I would expect RIV to be around $110-$115 on the conservative side by then. I could see them doing that.

You mean direct to come down to that level or resale?

 

[npatellye]

I would expect RIV to be around $110-$115 on the conservative side by then. I could see them doing that.

That would make RIV direct lower than SSR and OKW direct. Why would they do that?

I could see RIV direct being around $210-$215 by then but not down in the $110-$115 range. I could be really wrong but I don’t see why they would drop direct by so much.

 

[Nabas]

You mean direct to come down to that level or resale?

That would make RIV direct lower than SSR and OKW direct. Why would they do that?

I could see RIV direct being around $210-$215 by then but not down in the $110-$115 range. I could be really wrong but I don’t see why they would drop direct by so much.

I assume $110-$115 was a typo, and that they meant $210-$215 direct.

 

[CSLucas]

The current resale market is $185/pt to $210/pt (generally) at dvcresalemarket.com. That's pricing in a $255/pt direct price resulting in a 28% to $18% discount. If they drop the $255/pt direct price to $225, you don't think that will affect the resale market pricing? It'll drop discounts to a range between a 18% to 7% discount. That $210/pt will not be much of a bargain at a 7% discount.

I expect resale to drop significantly. Also, I will be interested to see what those contracts are actually selling for (if they are selling at all - things for VGF seem to be sitting a lot longer than when I was looking, and I have to believe it's because they aren't actually getting those prices) when the May report comes out - the April report still had the average at $184/pt. I know it isn't always the best indicator, but the ROFR thread doesn't have anything selling for close to those asking prices at VGF. BUT, I'm also in the camp that believes direct pricing is going to be in the same range as RIV.

 

[Nabas]

I expect resale to drop significantly. Also, I will be interested to see what those contracts are actually selling for (if they are selling at all - things for VGF seem to be sitting a lot longer than when I was looking, and I have to believe it's because they aren't actually getting those prices) when the May report comes out - the April report still had the average at $184/pt. I know it isn't always the best indicator, but the ROFR thread doesn't have anything selling for close to those asking prices at VGF. BUT, I'm also in the camp that believes direct pricing is going to be in the same range as RIV.

May resale prices will reflect transactions that started months ago. (ROFR has been taking forever!)

It will be a few months before we see today’s VGF resale listings reflected in actual closing prices.

 

[RoseGold]

April report still had the average at $184/pt. I know it isn't always the best indicator, but the ROFR thread doesn't have anything selling for close to those asking prices at VGF. BUT, I'm also in the camp that believes direct pricing is going to be in the same range as RIV.

Listings are in the 190s now mostly. There’s a 223 on the board sponsor. I don’t see prices going down now at all. I don’t see why resale or direct pricing would drop, when all prices have just been headed up lately.

DL Tower and VGF will price nowhere near RIV, unless they hike up RIV’s price to match, which I can see happening. Then RIV will sit overpriced for a long time, like Aulani.