NEW VGF Building

[CastAStone]

Listings are in the 190s now mostly. There’s a 223 on the board sponsor. I don’t see prices going down now at all. I don’t see why resale or direct pricing would drop, when all prices have just been headed up lately.

DL Tower and VGF will price nowhere near RIV, unless they hike up RIV’s price to match, which I can see happening. Then RIV will sit overpriced for a long time, like Aulani.

The contracts are just sitting now though. I see 25 Grand Floridian contracts for sale across the major sites. Only OKW and SSR have more for sale.

Actually the number of contracts for sale across all resorts is the highest it’s been in quite some time

 

[zavandor]

Maybe my post is confusing. If your unit has 1000 points it can never have more than 1000 points.

However, since units can be made up idifferent rooms, they have the ability to adjust across the resort, but the unit still has to remain neutral.

For example, making up numbers for ease...say that 1000 point unit has one studio for 200 points and one 2 bedroom for 800. If the studios got raised to say 400...then the 2 bedroom can only be assigned 600.

But, it’s more complicated since it has to balance resort wide too.

Again, this is how it was explained to me so I do think anything that happens with it all being will make it much harder to move points across actual room

I agree this is how (as a minimum, see below) it should work, but it means that what they did with the SSR THV was illegal. And what they attempted in 2019, to reallocate points from bungalows and cabins to the other units.

There is also another problem, for DVC: not all units are equal, the same resort may have different compositions of units.
For example (Random numbers, not a real case).
Let's say unit 1 has 1 2BR and 3 studios. Unit 2 has 1 2BR and 5 studios.
If they decrease a 2BR by 15 points and increase each studio by 5, unit 1 is balanced, but unit 2 is not.
The sole existence of units made of different types of units makes reallocating within units impossible.

Another issue: the Florida laws states the 1 to 1 rule (point sold for a unit = points needed to book the room) is valid for each "timeshare unit". The definition of a timeshare unit matches the definition in the DVC POS of a "vacation home", ie each room type that is lockable.
In fact at VGF they have sold guaranteed weeks for studios and there is not even one dedicated studio in the resort. Lockoff studios have been conveyed, which means they must respect the 1 to 1 rule.

 

[Sandisw]

Listings are in the 190s now mostly. There’s a 223 on the board sponsor. I don’t see prices going down now at all. I don’t see why resale or direct pricing would drop, when all prices have just been headed up lately.

DL Tower and VGF will price nowhere near RIV, unless they hike up RIV’s price to match, which I can see happening. Then RIV will sit overpriced for a long time, like Aulani.

There is one resale broker who had a 300 at $152 and it looks sold. So, there are still bargains to be had out there. I am monitoring so it will be interesting to see how long those over $200 take to sell.

 

[sethschroeder]

You mean direct to come down to that level or resale?

That would make RIV direct lower than SSR and OKW direct. Why would they do that?

I could see RIV direct being around $210-$215 by then but not down in the $110-$115 range. I could be really wrong but I don’t see why they would drop direct by so much.

Ya I did a mistype.

$210-$215 with 2 price increases in next 12 months.

 

[MomOTwins]

Ya I did a mistype.

$210-$215 with 2 price increases in next 12 months.

Agree with you on the staggered increases. I foresee one happening when the summer price incentives end so they can have a higher price for sales to onsite guests this fall when the 50th anniversary crowds descend.

 

[sethschroeder]

Agree with you on the staggered increases. I foresee one happening when the summer price incentives end so they can have a higher price for sales to onsite guests this fall when the 50th anniversary crowds descend.

Don't forget things like a minimum purchase requirement for blue card are there in the early fall to drive sales before the end of their FY. All in addition to price increases as well coming in Sept/Oct to drive those end of FY purchases.

 

[RoseGold]

The contracts are just sitting now though. I see 25 Grand Floridian contracts for sale across the major sites. Only OKW and SSR have more for sale.

Actually the number of contracts for sale across all resorts is the highest it’s been in quite some time

Wow, seems to have flipped today. Fidelity has only one for sale right now, the board sponsor has 9. Very little on the market right now, and almost all of it is in the 190s/200s.

The board sponsor contract at 223 is gone.

 

[CastAStone]

Wow, seems to have flipped today. Fidelity has only one for sale right now, the board sponsor has 9. Very little on the market right now, and almost all of it is in the 190s/200s.

The board sponsor contract at 223 is gone.

I see 5 more across www.DVCstore.com, www.dvcsales.com, and www.dvcbyresale.com, plus 5 more on other sites I can’t mention here. So 20 total. And yes, all priced very high.

 

[Nabas]

I see 5 more across www.DVCstore.com, www.dvcsales.com, and www.dvcbyresale.com, plus 5 more on other sites I can’t mention here. So 20 total. And yes, all priced very high.

Not sure if I can mention it (and I assume it will be filtered if I can't), but www.***************.com shows 26 VGF resales on the market, with 6 of those listings appearing after the VGF2 announcement.

Prices range from $225pp for a 25-point contract to $176pp for a 350-point contract.

There are a couple of 450-point contracts at $190pp, and some traditional 160-point contracts in the $185pp range.

 

[sethschroeder]

I think resale prices for VGF won't be impacted as much until we get closer to actual sales start for the next phase or we get information on the pricing. Right now you might have people buying with the idea of avoiding resale restrictions and VGF actually being a new resort so the old resort will be hard to get.

Look at how much confusion there is on this thread and anyone posting here is away more in the loop than others likely.

 

[davidl81]

I think resale prices for VGF won't be impacted as much until we get closer to actual sales start for the next phase or we get information on the pricing. Right now you might have people buying with the idea of avoiding resale restrictions and VGF actually being a new resort so the old resort will be hard to get.

Look at how much confusion there is on this thread and anyone posting here is away more in the loop than others likely.

Also a ton of people who are buying resale may not even be aware of the VGF2 announcement yet.

 

[Nabas]

Wow, seems to have flipped today. Fidelity has only one for sale right now, the board sponsor has 9. Very little on the market right now, and almost all of it is in the 190s/200s.

The board sponsor contract at 223 is gone.

I am guessing we're going to see a lot of VGF transactions in the next few months.

Some will be rushing to sell before they think resale prices will be undercut by VGF2.

Some will be rushing to buy before they think resale prices will increase because of VGF2.

As with all financial devices, there's a lot of trading after big news is announced.

It will be interesting to see where it settles in 3-6 months.

 

[RoseGold]

Going to be hard to have a lot of transactions when there’s only 20 for sale.

 

[CastAStone]

I started a pricing thread for VGF2, to maybe let this thread focus on the resort updates themselves.

Also there’s a poll

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-vgf-2-pricing-thread.3838921/

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

The board sponsor contract at 223 is gone.

Its back available!

 

[Paul Stupin]

The current resale market is $185/pt to $210/pt (generally) at dvcresalemarket.com. That's pricing in a $255/pt direct price resulting in a 28% to $18% discount. If they drop the $255/pt direct price to $225, you don't think that will affect the resale market pricing? It'll drop discounts to a range between a 18% to 7% discount. That $210/pt will not be much of a bargain at a 7% discount.

Of course it’s a possibility, but I’m not sure what other surprises await us in this story. I’m not convinced there’s going to be a huge price drop, and I’m not convinced there won’t be any restrictions.
Also, a $180 resale price for a $225 contract is about the current discount resale Riviera contracts command, I think.
Also, one can argue that if VGF studios are more easily booked, the new building and added excitement will increase demand on the resale market as well.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I wonder if additional fixed weeks will be offered once sales begin? And where will these reservations be? In the new building?

 

[sethschroeder]

Of course it’s a possibility, but I’m not sure what other surprises await us in this story. I’m not convinced there’s going to be a huge price drop, and I’m not convinced there won’t be any restrictions.
Also, a $180 resale price for a $225 contract is about the current discount resale Riviera contracts command, I think.
Also, one can argue that if VGF studios are more easily booked, the new building and added excitement will increase demand on the resale market as well.

You are really down around $130-$140 per point typically on RIV resale contracts. For VGF that would be similar to $155-$165. I am not sure the resale restrictions are worth $15-$25/point or not I think the number of existing points somewhat makes up for the resale restriction as there will be way more resale volume from VGF because VGF1.0 already exists.

Also if things like AP discounts by the time VGF goes on sale that could have an impact on being more willing to buy direct and skip the lower cost resale option.

 

[sethschroeder]

With a possible minimum purchase on direct going to 150 points in June (possibly a blue card requirement increase as well) I think we might be seeing VGF on sale for Q4 for Disney which would be July-September.

If this is actually what happens we could see more aggressive discounting on VGF to get it down closer to the RIV price point or matching it out of the gate.

I thought since the start that the only way we get close to $200/point is if Disney is selling VGF before their FY year end as this would give them a revenue infusion to pump up their numbers. Also I am not sure how they do accounting but they also might recognize VGF point sales as "100% profit" upfront since there would basically be no costs regarding this flip on the books for FY '21.

 

[JETSDAD]

With a possible minimum purchase on direct going to 150 points in June (possibly a blue card requirement increase as well) I think we might be seeing VGF on sale for Q4 for Disney which would be July-September.

If this is actually what happens we could see more aggressive discounting on VGF to get it down closer to the RIV price point or matching it out of the gate.

I thought since the start that the only way we get close to $200/point is if Disney is selling VGF before their FY year end as this would give them a revenue infusion to pump up their numbers. Also I am not sure how they do accounting but they also might recognize VGF point sales as "100% profit" upfront since there would basically be no costs regarding this flip on the books for FY '21.

I think that's too early for it to be going on sale. I'd guess Dec/Jan at earliest.