NEW VGF Building

[Matty B13]

Edit: Plus I could see them buying back every VGF that is under $225 if they plan on going up to $265 PP. Could be wrong on that but just a gut feeling.

The don't ROFR all VGF contracts even well under $225 right now, and could easily flip them at the $255/price.

 

[macman123]

Edit: Plus I could see them buying back every VGF that is under $225 if they plan on going up to $265 PP. Could be wrong on that but just a gut feeling.

I was going to buy another 200 direct and had thought about RIV with a guaranteed week.

But then VGF2 came out. But if its $255pp then sadly its too expensive for me

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

The don't ROFR all VGF contracts even well under $225 right now, and could easily flip them at the $255/price.

I could see that changing but that's only if they plan on jacking up the VGF2 direct prices. If it stays at $255 then it would stay ROFR status quo.

 

[CSLucas]

When I tried to buy VGF direct a few months ago, it was waitlisted.

So I think the demand is there, they just don't have the points to sell.

I suspect they will keep at $255pp but maybe have some incentives to bring VGF2 own by $15-$20pp.

But when selling direct they can say to people here is flagship resort, original 14 and not restricted.

But if you don't want a high price point, shorter term contract then here is RIV currently $201pp with good incentives bringing it even lower.......

I bought VGF last month off a waitlist - it took under a week to come through, and I was told by my guide that there were only 5 people on the waitlist. I don't think the demand is there (and what little demand there might be is for small add-on contracts). I don't see any reason for taking it off the add-on tool unless they are planning on drastically reducing the price. I understand why GC is off the tool because it actually does have huge demand and a big waitlist to match, but unless the floodgates opened in the last month on people clamoring to buy VGF, there just isn't another good reason I can see for taking it off.

I think it will be higher than RIV, but not by a ton.

 

[CastAStone]

The only incentive is if you buy 3000 points direct.

But seriously, I imagine it'd be small. I could see them going up to $265 and then if you buy at least 150 points it'll go down to $255. They probably figure most people that would buy direct probably already own at VGF. Proof in this thread alone that people would go for a small add on of like 50-100 points. Anyone that is new to the DVC world will probably go RIV over VGF2 just for contract length alone. "You don't want to buy a contract that expires 6 years earlier, do you?"

Edit: Plus I could see them buying back every VGF that is under $225 if they plan on going up to $265 PP. Could be wrong on that but just a gut feeling.

Disney basically never ROFRs anything above 70% of direct pricing. And they never, ever, ever ROFR resorts they’re actively selling

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

Disney basically never ROFRs anything above 70% of direct pricing. And they never, ever, ever ROFR resorts they’re actively selling

Really? That is actually kind of surprising. AUL makes sense why they wouldn't buy it back. RIV as well because of the restrictions but I figured if VGF2 didn't have restrictions they would. Seems like they are leaving money on the table. Again could be wrong on that.

Edit: Thinking about it, I get why they wouldn't now. They want the inventory gone. No sense to buy it back when you're trying to get rid of it.

 

[macman123]

Disney basically never ROFRs anything above 70% of direct pricing. And they never, ever, ever ROFR resorts they’re actively selling

I do wonder what VGF2 will do to reslae prices..........

 

[Nabas]

Edit: Plus I could see them buying back every VGF that is under $225 if they plan on going up to $265 PP. Could be wrong on that but just a gut feeling.

I know that a $40 spread sounds like a lot but for Disney there's just not enough margin there to justify it.

Previously, Disney had been ROFRing VGF at $165 or less, then selling at $255.

And the qualities (for Disney) are tiny. Disney has averaged to sell about 2600 VGF points per month so far in 2021. ($255 - $165) X 2600 = $234,000 per month, relative chump change compared to the RIV, especially considering Disney's overhead costs.

Disney has averaged 70,500 points per month at RIV in 2021. And Disney did not pay anywhere near $165 per point to build RIV.

Disney is better off focusing their energy (and money) on selling RIV and VGF2.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The only incentive is if you buy 3000 points direct.

But seriously, I imagine it'd be small. I could see them going up to $265 and then if you buy at least 150 points it'll go down to $255. They probably figure most people that would buy direct probably already own at VGF. Proof in this thread alone that people would go for a small add on of like 50-100 points. Anyone that is new to the DVC world will probably go RIV over VGF2 just for contract length alone. "You don't want to buy a contract that expires 6 years earlier, do you?"

Edit: Plus I could see them buying back every VGF that is under $225 if they plan on going up to $265 PP. Could be wrong on that but just a gut feeling.

I think you’re right. I don’t believe Riviera type pricing is ever going to happen for VGF. VGF is a larger, beautifully themed, iconic resort with easy walking access to the Magic Kingdom...with, potentially, no resale restrictions. It’s got magic Riviera doesn’t. People will pay a premium for that. They could keep the price at $255 and offer some incentives that mildly reduce that, but it’s a fantasy to think its ever going to go for $201. Since most contracts will be in the smaller 150-200 point range, the incremental price difference for a $245 per point cost won’t be a deal breaker. Maybe they’ll lower Riviera’s price to jump start sales there.

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

I know that a $40 spread sounds like a lot but for Disney there's just not enough margin there to justify it.

Previously, Disney had been ROFRing VGF at $165 or less, then selling at $255.

And the qualities (for Disney) are tiny. Disney has averaged to sell about 2600 VGF points per month so far in 2021. ($255 - $165) X 2600 = $234,000 per month, relative chump change compared to the RIV, especially considering their costs.

Disney has averaged 70,500 points per month at RIV in 2021. And Disney did not pay anywhere near $165 per point to build RIV.

Disney is better off focusing their energy (and money) on selling RIV and VGF2.

Makes sense now. Juice isn't worth the squeeze. My thought was since it's obvious that this is a cash grab that they would do anything and everything they can to make some of it back.

 

[Brian Noble]

Seems like they are leaving money on the table.

In the timeshare industry, the cost of construction (land prep, building, etc.) is typically somewhere between 20%-30% of the total cost of goods. Marketing is 40%-50%. At typical ROFR prices, it's cheaper to build a brand new shiny resort than it is to buy back resale deeds. IMO, the purpose of ROFR is to satisfy low-effort, organic sales to existing owners/new folks who walk in the door asking to buy old resorts rather than spend time and money convincing them to buy what is currently for sale.

 

[macman123]

Maybe they’ll lower Riviera’s price to jump start sales there.

I can't see prices for RIV direct being reduced from $201pp.........

 

[Sandisw]

I think you’re right. I don’t believe Riviera type pricing is ever going to happen for VGF. VGF is a larger, beautifully themed, iconic resort with easy walking access to the Magic Kingdom...with, potentially, no resale restrictions. It’s got magic Riviera doesn’t. People will pay a premium for that. They could keep the price at $255 and offer some incentives that mildly reduce that, but it’s a fantasy to think its ever going to go for $201. Since most contracts will be in the smaller 150-200 point range, the incremental price difference for a $245 per point cost won’t be a deal breaker. Maybe they’ll lower Riviera’s price to jump start sales there.

RIV sold over 88k in April. Given the current climate, I think that is pretty good.

I do not think it will be the same as RIV but I can see it getting to $220 ish with incentives.

 

[macman123]

I do not think it will be the same as RIV but I can see it getting to $220 ish with incentives.

My feeling was $235pp with incentives. I guess its going to depend on demand but given its a sought after resort, I guess they might test and see how well it sells.

I think even with $220pp and RIV around $181pp its a little too close.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I thought it was before 2018, though.

Yeah, I could be off by a year or two on that. Going to be really interesting to see how this resort interacts with Riviera.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I still think around $220-225 per point is a fair price. The question is whether it’ll take incentives to get there or if that’ll be the base price. For my budget, that’s still a little too much, but I think it’s worth it.

 

[Bjaiken77]

My feeling was $235pp with incentives. I guess its going to depend on demand but given its a sought after resort, I guess they might test and see how well it sells.

I think even with $220pp and RIV around $181pp its a little too close.

I think RIV has great incentives this summer, so I’m happy with the sub $200 price point. I think RIV and VGF are always going to be compared because they are both shooting for a level of elegance. To me, I find them to be night and day other than the elegance and subtle theming, but, unfortunately, I think the VGF2 on sale at the same time as RIV will cause them to forever be linked in discussions.

For what it’s worth, I like both resorts because of the subtle theming and elegance.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think RIV has great incentives this summer, so I’m happy with the sub $200 price point. I think RIV and VGF are always going to be compared because they are both shooting for a level of elegance. To me, I find them to be night and day other than the elegance and subtle theming, but, unfortunately, I think the VGF2 on sale at the same time as RIV will cause them to forever be linked in discussions.

For what it’s worth, I like both resorts because of the subtle theming and elegance.

I don’t think turn of the century Victorian, with a grand multi story lobby, is particularly subtle. It’s a level of theming Disney doesn’t do anymore, and it will command a premium. If everyone agrees it will be $220-$225, Disney will ask with incentives $235-250, and we’ll all still buy it.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I don’t think turn of the century Victorian, with a grand multi story lobby, is particularly subtle. It’s a level of theming Disney doesn’t do anymore, and it will command a premium. If everyone agrees it will be $220-$225, Disney will ask with incentives $235-250, and we’ll all still buy it.

Lol, by the time it goes on sale it'll probably be like $275. And it will still sell.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

VGF has been available all along at $255 and people weren't lined up to buy it (like VGC). There's not much new to see unless these rooms offer something special compared to what's already there OR there's a nice price drop.

If anything, I'm less likely to buy now because I'll have a better shot at studios without having to own there. Unless, of course, the price is low... that's the draw. I would buy any of: VGF, Poly or BLT direct with a price closer to $200. I was on waitlist for BLT at $190 but the price increased and I bailed. I wish that had gone thru. I would be set for a few more years and not debating purchases with all my free time. lol