NEW VGF Building

[fumanchu2488]

If you look at the order in which Disney has been reopening its hotels, Deluxe Resorts have opened first.

Indeed, the next resorts with announced opening dates are:

• Beach Club
• Wilderness Lodge
• Boardwalk Inn
• Polynesian

There still are no announced dates for POR, POFQ, ASMusic, and ASSports.

We hear that the Grand Floridian is not reaching 100% occupancy and yet Disney is still opening Deluxe Resorts first.

The takeaway is that $400 per night rooms at lower occupancies are more profitable for Disney than $200 per night rooms at higher occupancies. This is especially true at resorts that are already operating because they have associated DVC buildings. Disney is going to have a higher margin with a 70% filled Poly than a 100% filled All Stars. (Historically, anything below 80% is a very low occupancy for WDW.)

Still, if some Deluxe Resort rooms are unfilled, it makes sense to convert them to DVC, which will get them filled. The Grand Floridian has 867 rooms. Converting 200 to DVC instantly solves the GF's occupancy problem.

The driving force right now is theme park capacity. Due to COVID restrictions, Park Passes are reaching their limits at all 4 theme parks. This means that Disney will open hotels in the most profitable sequence possible.

By the time VGF2 is open, these COVID restrictions should be lifted and WDW should be back to normal.

Agree.

I guess my point is, if they keep raising DVC prices but cash rooms get cheaper, the savings goes down. That gets compounded if they add incentives to cash bookings that DVC would not get like ticket packages and free dining. Seems like they are going to have to heavily incentivize Deluxe hotels or convert to DVC.

 

[DVCsloth]

I want to see how they are going to word the contracts as far as resale restrictions. I know it is not a new resort but it seems a little unfair that Riviera will have resale restrictions but the new VGF may not. Another question, will resale after the latest restrictions be able to book the new building? I know that no one knows the answer yet, just wondering how they will do it.

 

[Sandisw]

40 or 50 points a night is crazy, the current studios in the middle season are around 20 weeknights. Riviera and Poly are around that. I don’t see much difference for the new rooms, especially if they don’t have the Deluxe Studio amenities (2 showers, kitchenette).

When deciding how many points to sell, given that the current rooms are a little bigger in size than the standard studio, they could assign how ever many points they want...within reason.

Then, those extra points, since part of the same association, can be shifted across all rooms...in essence adding points to the system at that resort.p

So, I believe they could decide that they are 40 points a night and base points for sale on that...but, absorb those points into the points charts by raising other rooms. They wouldn’t actually need to be 40 points each night, but those extra points can be used to raise the resort in total.

Personally, I don’t think they will do it. I think they will decide overall totals for these new rooms in conjunction with the current total of sold points.

 

[Nabas]

Yeah, $200 per point is where I’m good at. Much more than that I am not.

I did some quick math.

If I assume an initial purchase price of $225 per point, spread it out over 20 years, and add the current MF (which will increase over time), then I'm already up to $18/point, which is basically the current DVC point rental price. (Yes, I know VGF2 will be good for more than 40 years. I'm sure my kids will enjoy it but I doubt I'll be in any condition to still be going in 21 years. )

So, to your point, VGF2 doesn't make much financial sense over $200 per point.

 

[Nabas]

I guess my point is, if they keep raising DVC prices but cash rooms get cheaper, the savings goes down. That gets compounded if they add incentives to cash bookings that DVC would not get like ticket packages and free dining. Seems like they are going to have to heavily incentivize Deluxe hotels or convert to DVC.

I agree. Deluxe Resort discounts of 25% to 35% are pretty common nowadays. It's hard to imagine how converting 200 GF rooms is going to change that.

 

[Paul Stupin]

We can expect Disney to advertise VGF2 as Studio rooms to potential buyers. Overwhelmingly, those buyers initially will want Studios.

Long-term, we simply don't know how VGF1 and VGF2 buyers will behave.

We might end up with some VGF2 buyers deciding to stay at VGF1 one-bedroom villas, while some VGF1 buyers will decide to stay at VGF2 Studios. But the exact mix will depend on several factors, including the point chart at VGF2.

The current $255 price is designed to discourage direct sales. If you look at the 12 months prior to COVID, VGF was averaging only 2200 points per month. Most buyers there are adding points to existing contracts.

In the 6 months prior to COVID, RIV averaged 132,000 points per month. In April 2021, RIV was at 88,700 points for the month. Sales are not yet back to normal.

My guess is that VGF2 will start at $210-230 per point, depending on how quickly sales at RIV pick up.

Yeah, possible at $210-$230, probably in the higher end of that range. They're going to take it as high as they possibly can for one of the best, if not the best, themed and located WDW resorts, and I don’t think it will echo pandemic pricing for the Riviera.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

What is a bit funny about it being studios only is that it came out from DVC that they weren't thrilled with the way PVB sold and would never do a studios only. Of course there are larger units in the current building so they may figure it's ok because it does have them so they can assuage the fears of families looking to purchase. I do still wish they were doing at least a few 1 and 2BR's but I'm inclined to think that there will be connecting studios at least.

 

[Days In the Sun]

Let’s not jump too far ahead here. We have no reason to think that Disney will do anything untoward here. We don’t know if the new rooms will be better, worse, or just different. We don’t know if they’ll cost more points, fewer points, or the same. As @KAT4DISNEY mentioned a few pages back, the current leadership if anything tried to price CCV fairly by matching BRVs point chart - pro it was actually in the main building, con the rooms were smaller, net net, same point chart. CCV isn’t ancient history, the currently active resort promotion is the first to not include it. You can be mad now if you want to that is certainly your right, but I’d suggest we wait and see and get mad later if the naysayers are right.

Naysayer here, in order to be fair to VGF1 owners, they would need the point chart to be lower or equivalent to VGF1 or VGF1 buyers won't be able to book VGF1. I think they will be equivalent.

The price of VGF direct increased to $220 January 2018 so there are quite a few VGF owners, three years worth, that have paid $220 to $255 for their points. So what will be a fair price? Hard to tell but I'd like to think they want the price of their "flagship" resort to remain high. If not, I think this becomes a big buyer beware scenario. Which resort is next? Closest Caribbean Buildings become Riviera in two years and now we'll sell it to you for less?

But I agree @CastAStone, I should stop getting upset about it at least until I know what I am upset about lol.

 

[Nabas]

What is a bit funny about it being studios only is that it came out from DVC that they weren't thrilled with the way PVB sold and would never do a studios only. Of course there are larger units in the current building so they may figure it's ok because it does have them so they can assuage the fears of families looking to purchase. I do still wish they were doing at least a few 1 and 2BR's but I'm inclined to think that there will be connecting studios at least.

Looking at DVC resort direct sales when these resorts were being actively sold by Disney:

• VGF sold at about 105K points per month
• PVB sold at about 110K points per month
• CCV sold at about 112K points per month
• RIV sold at about 119K points per month (prior to COVID)

The reality is that VGF, PVB, CCV, and RIV averaged similar monthly sales, with slightly higher sales for later DVC resorts possibly explained by an economy that continued to improve each year from 2013 (when VGF sales started) to early 2020.

 

[Days In the Sun]

What is a bit funny about it being studios only is that it came out from DVC that they weren't thrilled with the way PVB sold and would never do a studios only. Of course there are larger units in the current building so they may figure it's ok because it does have them so they can assuage the fears of families looking to purchase. I do still wish they were doing at least a few 1 and 2BR's but I'm inclined to think that there will be connecting studios at least.

Yes, agree with all of the above. But hotel rooms convert cheaply to studios, no moving walls and the demand shortage based on current point charts is for studios. It's my understanding most of Big Pine Key is currently connecting rooms.

 

[CarolMN]

But I agree @CastAStone, I should stop getting upset about it at least until I know what I am upset about lol.

Me, too!

Just as Google has totally ruined so many good arguments (at least in my family), the details associated with this new addition to the DVC VGF Resort will ruin most of the assertions / assumptions / speculations made in this discussion! We will have to "unlearn" everything we've gleaned from this thread before we will have room for the official words from DVD.

 

[Days In the Sun]

Removed post to not confuse everyone with my confusion.

 

[Nabas]

The price of VGF direct increased to $220 January 2018 so there are quite a few VGF owners, three years worth, that have paid $220 to $255 for their points.

Since January 2018, VGF has averaged 1800 points per month.

I suspect most of those points are relatively small add-on contracts by existing VGF members.

 

[Nabas]

Hmmm. Does that not say they are selling almost as much vgf now at $255 (or something slightly lower) as Riv at $xxx (sorry, don't know Riviera pricing)?

As I recall, DVC members discount pricing at VGF started at $145 per point. (I think it quickly went to $155.) Back in the day when VGF was actively being sold, it was no more than $185 per point.

Since Disney raised VGF to $255 per point, sales have averaged 3100 points per month. If you assume 160 points per contract, that's less that 20 people per month!

I suspect people who are buying at VGF today are mostly existing VGF members who are looking to add some points.

 

[Days In the Sun]

Since January 2018, VGF has averaged 1800 points per month.

I suspect most of those points are relatively small add-on contracts by existing VGF members.

Thank you. So 40 months @ 1800/month = 72,000 points or 6.3% of 1,136, 865 available points. That's not much really.
At 100 points a contract, 720 members.

 

[OKW Lover]

Just as Google has totally ruined so many good arguments (at least in my family), the details associated with this new addition to the DVC VGF Resort will ruin most of the assertions / assumptions / speculations made in this discussion! We will have to "unlearn" everything we've gleaned from this thread before we will have room for the official words from DVD.

Reminds me of the skyline discussion.

 

[Sandisw]

Hmmm. Does that not say they are selling almost as much vgf now at $255 (or something slightly lower) as Riv at $xxx (sorry, don't know Riviera pricing)?

I think that is data from when each resort was in active sales...not now.

 

[Nabas]

Thank you. So 40 months @ 1800/month = 72,000 points or 6.3% of 1,136, 865 available points. That's not much really.
At 100 points a contract, 720 members.

73,480 points, to be exact.

 

[CarolMN]

Reminds me of the skyline discussion.

And just about EVERY discussion regarding a new thing announced for as long as I've been a Mod, LOL.

 

[Nabas]

I think that is data from when each resort was in active sales...not now.

I've edited my post to (hopefully) clarify this.